1. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System

2. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System Table of Content Meta trends World trade vs. European cargo transports De-industrialisation of Europe Mega trends for European cargo system Threats for European railcargo system Opportunities for European railcargo system Friedrich Macher, 9th October 20132

3. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System Continuance a European Problem? International Trade Tendencies – Source WTO Year 2007 = 100% Friedrich Macher, 9th October 20133 Forecast for 2013: 135-138%

4. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System Year 2007 = 100% European Rail Freight Traffic (btkm) Level before Crisis not yet Reached (forecast 2016) – Source EuroStat Friedrich Macher, 9th October 20134

5. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System Austrian Rail Freight Traffic (btkm) – Source ÖBB Year 2007 = 100% DB-Schenker only marginally better – Source Competitive Reports Database 2012, 2013 Friedrich Macher, 9th October 20135

6. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System Friedrich Macher, 9th October 20136 De-industrialization of Europe: Only 3 Countries Increased the Share of Industrialization in GNP Austria Germany The Netherlands

7. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System Mega Trends for European Rail Cargo System Investment-tailback in infrastructure Investment-tailback in rolling stock Modal split railcargo Profits of state owned railcargo companies Capabilities of RCOs’ to support global supply chains ? Liberalisation Share of private RCOs’ Friedrich Macher, 9th October 20137

8. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System Threats for European railcargo system Progressing de-industrialisation of Europe (also issue of transport costs) Failing of European transport policy Weakening of European rail network Gigaliner etc. Interoperability not reached Overbueraucracy (era etc.) „Renaissance“ of states monoplists Integrated corporation De-liberalisation Friedrich Macher, 9th October 20138

9. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System Opportunities for European railcargo system „Renaissance“ of European industries Strong European transport policy Continous liberalisation and privatisation Increased investments in infrastructure and interoperability Reducing of bureaucracy Rail logistics has to become an understood partner for global supply chains Single waggon system to be reorganised as network of independent decentralised partners (similar to freight-forwarder networks, joint system plus local heroes) Horizontal and vertical collaboration between raillogistics companies (public and private owned) Friedrich Macher, 9th October 20139

10. Railway Days 2013 Bucharest Economic Downturn – Impact on Railway System Thank You for Your Attention ! Friedrich Macher, 9th October 201310