Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage Rev. 3 Feb 2003 Tourism and Alaska’s Future: An Economics Perspective

2 Our Fragile Economy: per capita income is down from 1990 to 2000 Alaska-2% (total change) Anchorage-1% Mat Su Borough+2% Rest of coastal AK-5% Kodiak Island-15% Ketchikan Borough-2%

3 Our Fragile Economy: Real Income Growth Since 1990

4 Our Fragile Economy: Federal Aid per Person

5 Our Fragile Economy: Farmed salmon dominates world markets

6 Value of Alaska salmon is down

7 AK Economy looks like US

8 Alaska looks more like US over time

9 84,000 Alaska Jobs Depend on Healthy Ecosystems (circa 1998)

10 Tourism Industry (nonresidents) Marine environment is a major attraction “Soft adventure” is fastest growing segment, but… Many residents dislike the associated impacts (e.g., helicopters) 17,000 direct jobs 26,000 total jobs

11 Overall Tourism Growth has Slowed

12 What About Soft Adventure? …guided rafting on Chugach National Forest

13 Guided and Charter-Supported Kayak Trips in PWS

14 Recreation Industry (residents) Hard/impossible to measure - overlaps with tourism and sport fishing Important to many residents as a key benefit of living in Alaska (“permanent tourists”) 7,200 direct jobs 9,800 total jobs

15 Nonresidents want Alaska Fish!

16 (circa 2000)  Endeavor to position Alaska as a year round destination, i.e., winter tourism  Increase total visitor expenditures statewide; endeavor to maintain or increase per trip expenditures.  Attract a diverse mixture of visitors who travel to and within Alaska by a variety of travel modes.  Increase independent visitation to Alaska.  Increase visitation to non-urban Alaska.  Maintain or Increase the average length of stay in Alaska.  Maintain or increase the rate of new and repeat visitation.

17 The Challenge of Capturing Value…. From Drive-Through visitors From Virtual visitors

18 Disposition of Alaska Lands Total 375 million acres

19 Chugach National Forest Visitation

20 Kenai NWR: $21 million on-site expenditures PLUS, $28 million additional sport fishing expenditures depend on refuge habitat $49 million total  950 jobs

21 Kenai National Wildlife Refuge: 292,000 visits (1997)

22 Kenai National Wildlife Refuge: $21 million visitor expenditure (1997)

23 Visits Expenditures Kenai NWR

24 Bristol Bay NWRs: $21 million on-site expenditures PLUS, $28 million additional sport fishing expenditures depend on refuge habitat $49 million total  950 jobs

25 Bristol Bay Wildlife Refuges: 20,453 visits (1996)

26 Bristol Bay Wildlife Refuges: $2.4 million visitor expenditure (1997)

27 Visits Expenditures Bristol Bay NWRs

28 The Challenge of Capturing Value…. Use value –Consumptive –Nonconsumptive Option value Existence Value

29 Capturing the Value The Potential: –Average AK $ per person per trip? –$1,258 in 2001 –Of which, how much on gifts/souvenirs? –$119 –how much on Alaska Native arts/crafts? –$92 –How much on clothing? –$58

30 Why do People Visit Alaska Why do People Live in Alaska?

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32 Reactions: Overall Numbers? Numbers by Mode?

33 Reactions: Where do people derive value?

34 Reactions: Who are our “visitors?”