1. Partnerships for Ecosystem Services Research: three examples Steve Colt & Aaron Poe UAA & Chugach National Forest sgcolt@uaa.alaska.edusgcolt@uaa.alaska.edu & apoe@fs.fed.usapoe@fs.fed.us Alaska EPSCoR 2012 All-hands May 24, 2012

2. Challenges of ES Research “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems” (MEA)

3. Challenges: multiple disciplines “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems” Eco-nomics (social science) Eco-logy (natural science)

4. More challenges Multiple entities – science providers (FS, FWS, UAA, UAF…) – mgmt jurisdictions (FS, FWS, NPS, …) – funding sources – stakeholders / users / decision-makers (…) –

5. Example 1: Chugach & Kenai Climate Vulnerability Assessment Chugach National Forest UAA – ISER, ENRI, AKNHP Kenai National Wildlife Refuge Forest Service Research - PNW UAF - SNAP National Park Service – SW AK Network USGS Climate Science Center State and Private Forestry NOAA – NMFS Habitat Conservation Steve Colt Aaron Poe Greg Hayward

6. Classrooms for Climate May 4 -7, 2011 A Symposium on the changing Chugach, northern ecosystems and the implications for science & society www.uaa.alaska.edu/classroomsforclimate

7. C Pat and Greg Hayward Project Purpose: Assess vulnerability of key ecosystem and social/economic services Useful to managers – set adaptation priorities Useful to constituents – make business decisions

8. Historical 1960-99 Projected 2050-2059 Projected 2090-2099 It’s getting hot in here…

9. Adaptation

10. LCC boundaries as Sub-regions of Analysis

11. Vulnerability Assessmnt SENSITIVITY Degree to which asset is likely to be impacted EXPOSURE Types and amounts of stress experienced by asset Potential Impact Changes that may occur without adaptation action Adaptive Capacity Ability to cope with expected change CLIMATE CHANGE Projections and trends Downscale Models Describe Vulnerability Economic/Social/Ecological Characteristics

12. Coasts and Sea-scapes Tourism, productive systems Snow and Ice Snow sports, visuals, hydrology, etc. Cultural Resources sites, historic districts and practices Salmon A defining ecological service of the region Vegetation and Species biome shift through lens of key tree species, important ungulates, and invasive species Five Emphasis Areas…

13. Common Analysis Parameters.. A2 and A1B emission scenarios Down-scaled climate data for 20, 40, and 60 year horizons from SNAP 1969-1990 historical range for baseline of observed Focus on means and extremes…

14. Forest Service ‘knows’ UNCERTAINTY… FS experienced managing stressed -- ecosystems Northwest Forest Plan, Tongass LMP, Grassland management Therefore, FS is well positioned to play -- leadership role in management of wildlands Managing in face of climate change -- WILL be different Different form of uncertainty Need different expertise Need careful ID of priorities Critical need for partnerships

15. Our first steps toward Forest Plan Revision… Climate Vulnerability Assessment Distinct Roles and Contributions --a landscape-values analysis with Dr. Shannon Donovan

16. Example 2 (2 min): ES in Mat-Su Borough The Nature Conservancy UAA-ISER Earth Economics, USFWS, Bulliitt Foundation, Greatland Trust, MSB Planning

17. 1.Relationship of property values to ES 2.Fiscal impacts of alternative land use policies

18. 3. Choice experiment Which services do people value, and how much?

19. Example 3 (2 min): Valuation of saltwater charter sport fishing in Southeast Alaska Ginny Fay, Darcy Dugan, Steve Colt Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage UAA-CNF Climate Symposium May 5, 2011 AK Conservation Fdn, Moore Fdn, BP-CP UA Fdn, Wilderness Society, ADF&G, UAA- ISER, UAF-SNAP

20. Helicopter-based dog mushing excursions, Juneau Interruption: Quiz: What SE Alaska tourism sub-industry generated $16 million in revenue from one activity in 2006?

21. Back to sport fishing How much revenue from charter sport fish operations? Which communities get it? ADF&G pre-existing (but dormant!) data – Quantity (fishing effort by area fished) Interviews & Web – Price information Business licenses & Web – associated reality checks

22. Results: Total SE AK: 143,000 clients 37,560 trips $73.5 million gross revenue

23. Example of geographic specificity

24. Variation in revenue per square km

25. Highest revenue per square km: Logbook Areas 101451 and 101452 averaged together $49,294 per square km

26. So What? Collaboration can be same-time, same-place – Needs effort and commitment – Especially from middle-upper mgmt. of science provider institutions – (Got Match?) Can also be asynchronous, “virtual” – Use existing data in new ways – Requires sharing – (Got Data?) Funders pay piper; can call tune

27. References N. Raheem a,,, S. Colt b,, E. Fleishman c, m, 1,, J. Talberth d,, P. Swedeen e,, K.J. Boyle f,, M. Rudd g,, R.D. Lopez h, 2,, D. Crocker i,, D. Bohan j,, T. O'Higgins k,, C. Willer l,, R.M. Boumans m,. 2012. Application of non-market valuation to California's coastal policy decisions. Marine Policy. Available online 23 February 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2012.01.005 a b cm1 d e f g h2 i j k l m http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2012.01.005 Fay, G.; Dugan, D.; Fay-Hiltner, I.; Wilson, M.; Colt, S. 2007. Testing a methodology for estimating the economic significance of saltwater charter fishing in Southeast Alaska. Anchorage: ISER. http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/EconSE_Saltwater_Charter_Fish_070 530.pdf http://www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu/Publications/EconSE_Saltwater_Charter_Fish_070 530.pdf