National Economic Indicators Ray Owens May 20, 2014

2 Q1 0.1% Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate

3 Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

4 Personal Saving Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Percent of disposable personal income March 3.8%

5 Millions of Persons April mil. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

6 Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons Apr. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

7 Percent April 6.3% Civilian Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the March 19, 2014 meeting. FOMC Forecast

8 Percent of Population April Employed Labor Force Civilian Labor Force Ratios Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

9 Year over Year % Change Q1 1.4% Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Post-War Average Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

10 Disposable Personal Income & Expenditures Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 12 Month % Change Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Real Disposable Personal Income March *Adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near end of 2012.

11 March 4.0 mil. Existing Single-Family Home Sales Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics Millions of Homes Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 1990 through 1999

12 March 0.38 mil. Average Annual New Home Sales:1990 through 1999 New Single-Family Home Sales Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Millions of Homes

13 Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate Q1 -2.1% Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

14 Current $, Billions March -$40.4 bil. Six-Month Moving Average Balance of International Trade Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics

15 March 1.1% FOMC Forecast Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index 12 Month % Change Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the March 19, 2014 meeting. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 2% Longer-run Target

16 May 2nd 5-Year 5 Years Ahead TIPS Inflation Compensation Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics Percent

17 Federal Funds Target Rate May 9th Primary Credit Rate Monetary Policy Instruments Percent Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics Federal Funds Rate Target Range Interest Rate Paid on Reserves

18 Federal Reserve System Assets Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics $, Billions Treasury Securities: $2,352 Agency Debt: $45 Agency MBS: $1,632 Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Total: $4,342 Miscellaneous: $314 Treasury Securities: $1,652 Agency Debt: $87 Agency MBS: $844 Total: $2,865 Miscellaneous: $282

19 Time to Maturity Treasury Yield Curve Percent Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

20 May 9th 10-Yr. Treasury Bond Rate Corporate BBB Bond Rate 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate Corporate AAA Bond Rate Capital Market Rates Percent Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics