1. Zero Rates, No Inflation and Other Extremes
It’s Not That 70s Show
Zero Rates, No Inflation and Other Extremes
Stephen Gallagher
Director of Research
SG-AMER
March 15, 2016

2. Misery Index – well below 70s peaks
Source: Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

3. US Inflation
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

4. Fed Funds Rate
Source: Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research

5. US 10-Year Treasury Yield
Source: Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research

6. US Unemployment Rate
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

7. Real US GDP Growth
Source: The National Bureau of Economic Research, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

8. … an aging business cycle
Business Cycle Duration in Months
Since 1854
Since 1949
Average Expansion Length
38.7
58.4
Average Contraction Length
17.5
11.1
Months
Current Expansion starting in June 2009 81
By Dec 2016 91
By Dec 2017
103
By May 2019
120
Longest Expansion (Ending Mar 2001)
Second Longest (Ending Dec 1969)
106
Source: The National Bureau of Economic Research, SG Cross Asset Research

9. Global 10-Yr Yields– sub-zero race
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data, Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research

10. Labor Force Participation Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

11. Labor Productivity
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

12. Real US Import & Export as % of GDP
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, SG Cross Asset Research

13. China GDP as % of World GDP
Source: The World Bank, Bloomberg, SG Cross Asset Research

14. Wealth Disparity – The very rich are richer
Source: Saez and Zucman (2014) , Wealth Inequality in the United States Since 1913: Evidence from Capitalized Income Tax Data

15. Real crude Oil Price—benefit or curse
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, The National Bureau of Economic Research, Haver Analytics, FactSet, SG Cross Asset Research
Real Price Base = January 2016