Cooperative and Automated Driving in the United States Opportunities and Challenges Gerald Conover Managing Director PRC Associates, USA representing ITS America Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Good afternoon. As Mr. YARNOLD said, I am Gerald Conover, the Managing Director of PRC Associates in the United States. I am also the chairman for international affairs for the Intelligent Transportation Society of America. I am here today to share with you some status and some insights into Cooperative Driving and Automated Driving in the United States.

Agenda Introduction / Agenda The “Big News” from America Currently Implemented ITS Solutions Cooperative Driving Automated Driving Political Overview Opportunities for Authorities Conclusion ITS World Congress – Detroit 2014 Today I would like to summarize for you the situation for Cooperative and Automated Driving in the United States. This provides some background for the plans we have for these technologies in the coming years. Of necessity, this will be a broad overview. We will cover briefly the topics shown on this slide. These will provide the underpinnings for the American strategy toward cooperative and automated driving..

The Big News from America The US federal government plans to require vehicle-to-vehicle communications systems on future cars and light trucks. “NHTSA is finalizing its analysis of the data … . The report will include analysis of technical feasibility, privacy and security, and preliminary estimates on costs and safety benefits.” “NHTSA will then begin working on a regulatory proposal that would require V2V devices in new vehicles in a future year.” Bottom Line: Regulation targeted for publication by end 2016 CY. Likely applied starting in the 2021 model year (our estimate). The “big news” about cooperative driving in America is that the US Department of Transportation has finally decided to set regulations requiring vehicle-to-vehicle communications among light vehicles. Transportation Secretary Foxx said the regulations will be in place by the end of President Obama’s term in office. That means by the end of 2016, for practical purposes. If we assume a four-year implementation calendar for automakers and suppliers, this would imply on-the-road by the 2021 model year. Of course, this could be accelerated given the amount of work automakers and suppliers have already done.

Currently Implemented I.T.S. Solutions In Vehicles Navigation Telematics Driver Assistance Systems On the Road Adaptive Traffic Signal Control Variable Message Signs Traffic and Roadway Monitoring Electronic Toll Collection Travel Demand Management Coming Next Cooperative Driving (2021 MY) Automated Driving (in degrees, 2025-2035) ITS systems and services are implemented broadly in the United States as they are in many countries. Many of the infrastructure applications are concentrated in urban areas because 83% of America’s population is concentrated on the two coasts and a number of Midwestern cities – such as Detroit and Chicago. Much of America is rural – agricultural land for the most part – where vehicle traffic is light. Nonetheless, ITS enjoys growing popularity among drivers and road and traffic managers.

Cooperative Driving It has been a long-time wish of everyone involved in road transport to be able to prevent traffic crashes in the first place. If the cars could “talk” with each other – digitally, of course, not in spoken words, ,,, …and each car knew where it was positioned relative to other vehicles sharing the same roadway, … …and each car could tell its nearby mates its speed and direction of travel – …you have the makings of cooperative driving.. If the cars in the neighborhood could put all this data together very quickly, they could predict the possibility of a crash happening and – with the right braking and steering actuators – could actually avoid the crash by slowing or turning away.

Safety Pilot Model Deployment Two large field operational tests are underway – one in America and one in Europe – to determine whether such science can indeed do something good for the driving experience. The Safety Pilot Model Deployment going on right now in Ann Arbor, Michigan, is collecting data on the behavior of more than 2,800 vehicles, of all sizes and types, when the vehicles have mutual awareness. In some cases, the drivers are in the control loop, but in others, its all up to the car or truck. The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute is running the program to provide the US Department of Transportation with data sufficient to support the department’s rulemaking initiative. The project was recently extended indefinitely by the USDOT and will become the basis for a fully networked Ann Arbor region.

Safety Pilot Status More than 2,750 vehicles on the road 37,500 V2V interactions – 2,000 critical events More than 9 billion messages – representing 6 million road miles Motorcycles – and one bicycle – included Ice formation warning application

University of Michigan Mobility Transformation Center The University of Michigan is also undertaking the design of a unique environment for testing connected and automated vehicles. The facility, which simulates a dynamic urban environment, is an important element of a joint project with industry and government to develop and implement an entire system of connected and automated vehicles on the streets of Southeastern Michigan by 2021. The U-M Mobility Transformation Center will occupy 30 acres at the University’s North Campus Research Complex. The novel test environment will include almost three lane-miles of roads with intersections, traffic signs and signals, sidewalks, benches, simulated buildings, street lights and obstacles such as construction barriers. Current plans call for the facility to be completed by September 2014 at a cost of about $6.5 million. Dr. Peter Sweatman is head of the Mobility Transformation Center. His goal is to have “the MTC accelerate innovations that will lead to a commercially viable automated mobility system that will fundamentally transform our society."

Infrastructure Communications There is potentially a very large infrastructure component within cooperative driving. In addition to cars talking to each other over relatively short ranges, roadside communicators – that can also talk with cars going by – would be able to share situational awareness with vehicles further up the road. They could also warn drivers – and their cars – about approaching motorcycles, bicyclists and pedestrians. Honda, for example, demonstrated such concept at the 20th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems in Tokyo, Japan. Roadside communications are also part of the Safety Pilot Model Deployment. One interesting finding of that work – the distance between roadside devices can be up to five times what theoretical calculations said it had to be – a huge saving for infrastructure installations.

V2I Mobility Applications Lane-specific traffic flow prediction; dynamic traffic signal timing Inform the visually impaired when to cross Manage public transit; transit signal priority Travel information for commercial vehicle operators Integrated transit operations; passenger connections; dispatching; dynamic ride sharing. Through a program called Dynamic Mobility Applications, the USDOT is exploring the potential benefits of V2I connectivity. The first application would use comprehensive data to accurately predict lane-specific flows of vehicles and to transform how traffic signal systems are used maximize traffic flows in real time. A second application would inform visually impaired pedestrians, via their smartphones, when to cross at intersections. The third application would help transit agencies grant buses priority at traffic signals when needed. The fourth would provide travel information to commercial vehicle operators, including freight-specific route guidance, and to coordinate load management to reduce empty-load trips. A final application would facilitate integrated transit operations, such as passenger connection protection, transit dispatching, and new forms of operational practices intended to enhance dynamic ridesharing.

Issues with Cooperative Driving Will drivers accept intervention? Will insurance companies and trial lawyers accept or attack these systems? How will these systems work in mixed traffic, where a lot of vehicles are not equipped? Are the data secure? Susceptible to hacking? How long will it take to get more than half of the car parc? We’re at the brink of something really exciting. The automakers are ready to go. In Europe, several automakers and major suppliers have committed to real-world, high-volume sale of cooperative driving systems by 2015. There are still a few questions: Will drivers accept intervention with their driving? Will insurance companies and trial lawyers accept or attack these systems that work beyond the driver’s control? How will these systems work in mixed traffic, where a goodly slice of the vehicle population is not so equipped? Are the V2V and V2I data and links secure? How long will it take to get the lion’s share of the car parc?

Automated Driving The notion of cars talking to one another and vehicle systems intervening leads to another area of mobility that has many people very interested. What if you didn’t have to drive the car at all? What if some kind of robotic chauffer could do it for you? Farfetched? Not if you ask Google – or Toyota – or Nissan – or Mercedes – or Audi – or General Motors – or Ford. And there are surely others doing similar work that they haven’t spoken about publicly yet.

Pre-Conditions for Automation High levels of situational awareness The ability to crunch a lot of numbers very quickly High-speed, highly accurate actuators Data reliability and security There are three principle technological keys to opening the door to automated, or even autonomous, driving: We need to have high levels of situational awareness – what is going on around us that could impact us? Here is where the cooperative driving systems could work with on-board sensors. We need to be able to crunch a lot of numbers very quickly – we need high-speed computing power. Continental AG figures the average automated vehicle could generate a gigabyte of information every minute of operation. Multiply by the number of vehicles on the road and you have a data avalanche. We need high-speed, highly accurate actuators to take the right amount of corrective action – not too much, not too little – but just right. And, we need systems reliability several orders of magnitude greater than that of the Space Shuttle.

Automated Driving To be sure, autonomous driving is still in the R&D labs. But automated driving – where sensors, computers and actuators take over part of the driving task – is a lot closer than many people think. Combining adaptive cruise control – for longitudinal movement – with lane keeping control – for lateral movement – and you have a vehicle that does not require a driver to touch the pedals or hold the steering wheel. Every major vehicle manufacturer has development programs underway. Mercedes, for example, has such a system on offer in Europe for its new S-Class luxury sedan. It operates only at low speed – for now. Higher speeds on highways with good lane markings are next.

How Long Will It Take? Several automakers have said publicly they will have autonomous cars by 2020, or earlier. The first group of autonomous cars will have limited self-driving that enables the driver to give up full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions and includes auto pilot for highway travel and parking. Coming later in the decade will be vehicles with more self- driving capability, but with human still at the controls when needed. IHS Automotive forecasts that North America will account for 29% of worldwide sales of self-driving cars with human controls (level 4) and self-driving only cars (level 5) in 2035, or nearly 3.5 million vehicles. China will capture the second largest share at 24%, or more than 2.8 million units, while Western Europe will account for 20% of the total, or 2.4 million vehicles.

Political Situation 3,700 road agencies in the United States – state, county, city, village The federal Highway Manual provides guidelines Specifications are varied and fragmented We must sell one agency at a time. The path to implementation of the many excellent ITS possibilities in America is not an easy one. The ebb and flow between de facto and je jure regulations and standards isn’t particularly helpful. The situation is complicated by the fact that there are 3,700 different authorities in charge of various aspects of road management.

Map of Counties in the United States This will give you some idea of the complexity. This map shows only the states and the counties in America. The cities and villages add another couple of orders of magnitude.

Political Situation 3,700 road agencies in the United States – state, county, city, village The federal Highway Manual provides guidelines Specifications are varied and fragmented We must sell one agency at a time. In addition, procurement rules are very complicated and specifications can be extremely fragmented. In the end, the purveyors of ITS products, systems and services must sell their goods one agency at a time which is very resource intensive and time consuming.

Opportunities for Authorities Embrace new technology Recognize that ITS solutions save money in the long run Consider group purchasing or at least standardized specifications Set performance specifications rather than commodity directives The road managers have significant opportunities within the policy framework to take advantage with ITS. Embrace new technology, particularly ITS. Recognize that ITS solutions save money in the long run by avoiding the building of new roads and lanes. Consider group purchasing or at least standardized specification. This is already underway in the US. Set performance specifications rather than commodity directives in order to allow greater competition and ultimately better prices.

Conclusion America is on the cusp of a mobility revolution Could “Vision Zero” be a possibility? Could road traffic become more environmentally friendly? Could the roadways become a real network? America is on the cusp of a mobility revolution. ITS, with driver assistance systems, cooperative driving and, eventually, automated driving, is helping “Vision Zero” get closer to becoming a real possibility. Improvements in the driving situation will make road traffic more environmentally friendly. And – who knows – some day the roadways might even become a real network linking pavement, drivers and instant information. Articulating a coherent framework is absolutely vital if any of the great goals we have set for ourselves are to be met.

World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems Detroit 2014 7-11 September 2014 Cobo Center and Belle Isle State Park

2014 World Congress Update Program Status and Keynotes Special Events Sponsors Exhibition Status Technology Showcase & Tours Invitation One more thing before I go. Please allow me to introduce another excellent opportunity for all of us to get together for another discussion of ITS. The City of Detroit, Michigan has the honor to host the 21st World Congress on Intelligent Transportation – September 7th through September 11th, 2014. “Reinventing Transportation in our Connected World” is the guiding vision for all the phases of this World Congress. It celebrates the convergence of ubiquitous personal connectivity with the art and science of surface transport.

Program at a Glance Time Saturday 9/6 Sunday 9/7 Monday 9/8 Tuesday 9/9 Wednesday 9/10 Thursday 9/11 7:00 AM   7:30 AM Legislative Breakfast ITS America Award Breakfast WTS Breakfast 8:00 AM Registration Tours 8:30 AM C.T.O. Summit "Connectivity and Autonomy" (Cobo Ballroom) (Two panels plus joint Q+A session) Plenary I Plenary II US DOT Plenary 9:00 AM 9:30 AM 10:00 AM Exhibition Technology Showcase Break 10:30 AM Break: 10:30-10:45 Ribbon Cutting: 10:45-11:00 General Sessions 11:00 AM 11:30 AM ITS America Annual Meeting Forum Showcase 12:00 PM Lunch 12:30 PM 1:00 PM 1:30 PM 2:00 PM 2:30 PM High Level Policy Roundtable 3:00 PM Incident Management Session 3:30 PM Closing Ceremony (Cobo Ballroom) 4:00 PM Opening Ceremony Reception 4:30 PM 5:00 PM Opening Ceremony (Cobo Ballroom) Exhibitors Welcome & Regional Receptions in Exhibit Hall 5:30 PM ITS Michigan & MEDC-Sponsored "ITS Festival" or Supplier Hospitality Night 6:00 PM Finale and Networking Event (Cobo Ballroom) 6:30 PM 7:00 PM 7:30 PM 8:00 PM Program at a Glance

Program Calendar Call for Papers On the Street Web Site Open to Receive Abstracts Due January 31 IPC Meeting #1 February 5-6 Abstracts Reviewed January – February, 2014 IPC Meeting #2 March 5-6 Authors Informed Mid March 2014 Preliminary Program Out April 1, 2014 Final Papers Due June 27, 2014 Final Program Locked August 20, 2014

Program Sessions CTO Summit (5 sessions) Plenary Sessions (3) Executive Sessions (12) Town Halls (2) Special Interest Sessions Technical and Scientific Sessions Interactive Sessions

Keynotes Opening Ceremony—GM CEO High Level Policy Roundtable—HNTB and AASHTO CEOs Monday Plenary—Ford Chairman CTO Summit—Delphi CEO Wednesday Plenary—Verizon CEO Thursday US DOT Plenary—US DOT Secretary Thursday Closing Ceremony – A Surprise Morgan Ouellette - Program Coordinator, ITS America 202-721-4215 mouellette@itsa.org

High Level Policy Roundtable and CTO Summit CEOs of US State Departments of Transport Ministerial representatives from overseas Sunday afternoon CTO Summit: Up to five sessions of discussion and debate about key ITS issues by Chief Technology Officers Tuesday kickoff plenary Morgan Ouellette - Program Coordinator, ITS America 202-721-4215 mouellette@itsa.org

Special Events Opening Ceremony & Reception (Sunday) Special Awards (throughout the World Congress) Exhibit Hall Ribbon Cutting (Monday) Exhibit Hall Networking Receptions (Monday) Youth Connections Activities (throughout the World Congress) Emergency Responder Day (Tuesday) Public Day (Tuesday) Taste of Michigan Showcase Event (Tuesday) World Congress Gala (Wednesday) Closing Ceremony (Thursday)

Special Event Venues Cobo Center Atrium Cobo Center Grand Ballroom

Anchor Sponsors

Other Sponsors

Exhibition Hall

Major Exhibitors

Technology Showcase

Reinventing Transportation in Our Connected World Guiding Principles Immersive experience Integrated program, exhibits and demonstrations Emphasis on personal, vehicle and infrastructure connectivity Greater focus on consumers and youth Leverage the presence of the auto industry

2014 World Congress Update Program Status and Keynotes Special Events Sponsors Exhibition Status Technology Showcase & Tours Invitation

Reinventing Transportation in Please Come to Detroit Reinventing Transportation in our Connected World 7-11 September 2014

Cooperative and Automated Driving in the United States Thank you for your attention Gerald Conover Managing Director PRC Associates, USA representing ITS America gconover@iname.com Thank you very much for your attention today. I hope you found the presentation interesting and have taken something of value from it. If you have further questions about ITS in the United States, please feel free to contact me at the email address shown here.