1 Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation May 2004, Copenhagen EU greenhouse gas emission trends and projections André Jol Project manager climate change European Environment Agency

2 Contents 1.Legal reporting requirements 2.Institutional arrangements 3.QA/QC and improvement activities 4.Total GHG emission trends 5.Aviation and navigation emissions

3 Legal basis UNFCCC (in future KP) Guidelines on National Communications and annual inventories (FCCC/CP/1999/7, decision 3/CP.5) and 1996 IPCC Guidelines, Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management (2000) and LULUCF (carbon sinks) Guidance being developed (2003) Marrakech Accords and revised guidelines for inventories, from April 2004 (FCCC/CP/2002/8, decision 18/CP.8) EU Council Decision concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol (Decision 280/2004/EC), in force since March 2004 Implementing provisions under Decision, Draft 2004

4 Summary of Monitoring Mechanism (1) Monitoring the emissions of the six Kyoto greenhouse gases and removals by sinks Annual GHG inventory reporting by MS to the European Commission EU inventory is the Sum of 15 Member States Member States report their respective data to UNFCCC Implementation and annual reporting of national programmes (including policies and measures) and emission projections to the Commission Evaluation of progress and reporting to the European Parliament and Council by the Commission

5 Summary of Monitoring Mechanism (2) Establishment of EU greenhouse gas inventory system (KP Art. 5.1) Internal procedures for the review process and adjustments (KP Art. 5.2 and Art. 8) Reporting on accounting of assigned amounts and national registries (KP Art. 7.1, 7.2 and 7.4) Supplementary information to be incorporated in the periodic communications to the UNFCCC EEA assists in EU GHG inventory and annual evaluation report

6 EU MS share the EU Kyoto target (-8%), legally binding through the 2002 Council decision on EU Kyoto Protocol ratification test

7 New Member States have individual targets of –8 %, except Hungary and Poland (target of –6%)

8 EU GHG inventory institutional arrangements Member states prepare inventory and participate in EU Monitoring mechanism committee, and 3 working groups Working group I promotes improvement of all GHG inventory quality aspects (transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness, accuracy and use of good practices) Working group II promotes improvement of quality of reporting on GHG emission projections Working Group III promotes implementation of EU emissions trading scheme European Commission (DG ENV) responsible for submission to UNFCCC, assisted by EEA and Eurostat and JRC (and European Topic Centre Air and Climate Change) EU “National Inventory Report” follows UNFCCC Guidelines

9 Annual process of submission/review of MS inventories and compilation of the EU inventory (1)

10 Annual process of submission/review of MS inventories and compilation of the EU inventory (2)

11 Requirement to implement National GHG Inventory System under Kyoto Protocol Institutional, legal and procedural arrangements necessary to perform all functions Capacity for timely performance Single national entity with overall responsibility and involvement of others (scientific organisations, national statistical institutes, industry, environmental NGOs) Inventory QA/QC planning and implementation Programmes to improve the quality of activity data, emission factors and methods Identification of key source categories Estimation of uncertainties Recalculation

12 EU GHG inventory improvement within the Monitoring mechanism Eurostat improvement project for national energy balances and annual estimation of EU CO2 emissions (IPCC Reference Approach), workshop in June 2003 JRC compares national estimates for carbon sinks (focus on forests) (workshops in 2002) and coordinates a project for improving GHG emissions from agriculture (focus on N2O from soils), workshop in Feb (exp. meeting in 2004) QA/QC of EU inventory depends on QA/QC systems for national GHG inventories, workshop Sep 2004 Minor differences between EU and Member States’ inventories, which are further being reduced through the UNFCCC review process

13 UNFCCC review process Initial checks Centralised review In-country review In future KP review procedures EU MS and Commission need to communicate outcomes of FCCC review Review within EU consists mainly of initial checks

14 EU GHG emissions in 2001 were 2.3 % below base year levels, but increased 1.0 % from The EU is not on track towards its Kyoto target –8%

15 EU MS Greenhouse gas emission trends and Kyoto Protocol (burden sharing) targets for

16 EU MS Greenhouse gas emission burden sharing targets and changes from base year to 2001

17 In 2001, 10 of the 15 Member States are heading towards overshooting their burden sharing target by a wide margin

18 In 2001 all new Member States, except Slovenia, were on track towards meeting their Kyoto targets

19 EU GHG emissions show decreases in most sectors, but a large increase from (domestic) transport (20%)

20 EU CO 2 emissions transport increased much in most countries, but not in FI, SE and UK, probably because of high 1990 emissions and/or high road fuel prices

21 With existing domestic policies and measures EU emissions are projected to decrease by only 0.5 % from 1990 to 2010

22 For SE, UK existing domestic policies and measures are sufficient to meet their targets. Emissions in the other EU MS are projected to be significantly above their targets.

23 Transport and aviation and navigation emissions EU carbon dioxide emissions from domestic transport (28 % of total emissions), mainly by road, increased by 20 %. Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation and navigation, not covered by the Kyoto Protocol (6 % of total emissions in 2001), increased by more than 50 % from 1990 levels Emissions are projected to increase substantially by 2010

24 Workshop objectives Consider state of reporting by EU MS Recommendations to improve data and emission calculation methodologies Improve methodologies for disaggregation of domestic and international transport Present information on activities of international organisations Share best practice and improve coordination between EU MS and international organisations Discuss different allocation approaches Prepare time schedule for follow-up activities