International CLIVAR Structure, Activities and Future Directions Valery Detemmerman Joint Planning Staff World Climate Research Programme Geneva, Switzerland

Established 1980 Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1992+) WCRP Overview Objectives ♦ To determine the predictability of climate ♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate

ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000  SPARC 1992  GEWEX 1988  CLIVAR 1995  WOCE TOGA WGNE WGCM WGSF WCRP Projects

Intl CLIVAR Objectives Understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales … Understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales … Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction … Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction … Extend the record of climate variability … Extend the record of climate variability … Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal. Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal. US CLIVAR objectives provide effective match to these

CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas

CLIVAR - global view

Basin Panels – Atmos&Oc Atlantic Pacific Southern Ocean Indian Ocean (with GOOS)

Major activities Atlantic thermohaline circ. variability, Atlantic predictability, Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE) Southern Pacific Workshop (w/GOOS, ARGO..) Indian Ocean Implementation Plan S. Oc in the International Polar Year

Monsoon Panels Asia – Australia (AAMP) Americas (VAMOS) African Climate Variability (VACS)

Major Activities Monsoon modelling workshop (w/GEWEX..) North American Monsoon Experiment S. Am Low Level Jet Experiment La Plata Basin (w/ GEWEX, GEF) African Monsoon (AMMA) African Climate Atlas East Africa workshop

Global Panels - Modelling Working Group on Coupled Modelling (w/JSC, WGCM) Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) Working Group on Ocean Model Development

Major activities IPCC input regional panels analyses of output- feedback Ensemble techniques Ocean component of climate models

Global Panels- cross-cutting Global Observations and Synthesis Panel (GSOP) PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (w/ WMO Commission on Climatology)

Major activities GSOP – data requirements, policy, reanalysis PAGES/CLIVAR – workshops ET CCD & Indices

CLIVAR Assessment Organised by: –CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implementation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs –Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling –Overall programme structure & the ICPO

CLIVAR self-assessment assessors –Seasonal-Interannual: Ed Sarachik –Decadal-Centennial: Fritz Schott –Anthropogenic Climate Change: Mike Manton –Modelling: David Anderson –“Data”: Neville Smith –Structure: Jurgen Willebrand Inputs –Panel & Working Group responses to questionnaire –CLIVAR web pages & documents –Reviewer/Panel & WG interactions –CLIVAR Conference Outcomes –Written & oral reports to CLIVAR SSG-13 –Report on web –Continuing analysis, SSG-14

Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Reconfirmed 4 major Foci ENSO Monsoons Decadal climate variability-THC Anthropogenic climate change On an annual basis CLIVAR progress will be assessed against four major global themes. Each year a topical workshop will be held for one of the four “total programme” themes.

Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Science Priorities Regional analysis of global model outputs and feedback Strengthen CLIVAR activity in ACC Links between process studies & model improvement

Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Future priorities CLIVAR visibility and networking Overall CLIVAR data and information management Applications of CLIVAR science

US CLIVAR Reorganization Balanced climate research agenda – understanding, prediction, linkages to users of climate info Engage more of scientific community

US and international CLIVAR US CLIVAR activities occur within the framework of international CLIVAR The US is a key player in international CLIVAR One measure is US membership of the CLIVAR SSG, Panels and Working Groups

US Membership of CLIVAR SSG, Panels & Working Groups 2004 US membersUS Ex OfficioUS Chairs SSG6/132/41/2 WGCM3/11Vice chair WGSIP 3/111/2 WGOMD 3/10 GSOP 4/111/2 ETCCD 1/8 CLIVAR/PAGES 3/11 Atlantic 3/111/2 Pacific 3/12*1/2 Indian Ocean 4/14 Southern Ocean 5/12 AAMP 3/9*1/2 VACS 5/111/2 VAMOS 6/131/2 * m embership under revision

Functions of the ICPO Coordinate & encourage international participation in CLIVAR Support CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups Manage CLIVAR information flow (web, Exchanges)

Current ICPO Staff - key responsibilities 2005 Howard Cattle (100%): Director, ICPO, JSC, SSG, ICPO management, links to other programmes, editor Exchanges Roberta Boscolo (50%): Atlantic, VACS, WGOMD Carlos Ereño (25%): VAMOS, Latin American contacts Mike Sparrow (30%): Southern Ocean Nico (100%): Pacific, TIP, GSOP, data issues, links with carbon programmes New Staff person (100%): Modelling, ETCCD, CLIVAR-PAGES, Indian Ocean, AAMP Sandy Grapes (100%): secretariat, technical editor Exchanges

US and international CLIVAR Good fit US to Intl CLIVAR Much to be gained by intl collaboration Maintain links via panels, working groups, workshops and via ICPO and Exchanges

“….it is recognized that strong linkages to the international CLIVAR..panels must continue in order to leverage and coordinate significant international investments in climate science.” EOS July 2005