1. CLIVAR SSG 14 Buenos Aires, Argentina Introduction and Welcome Introduction and Welcome

2. CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying components of the climate system. CLIVAR investigates the physical and dynamical processes in the climate system that occur on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales. http://www.clivar.org

3. CLIVAR Mission CLIVAR Mission To observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. To observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. Science Applications

4. CLIVAR Goals and Objectives CLIVAR Goals and Objectives Understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales … Understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales … Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction … Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction … Extend the record of climate variability … Extend the record of climate variability … Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal. Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal.

5. CLIVAR SSG 14 Buenos Aires, Argentina Introduction and Welcome Introduction and Welcome Agenda Agenda Review of SSG 13 Review of SSG 13 Summary of JSC XXVII, Pune India Summary of JSC XXVII, Pune India Purpose of this meeting Purpose of this meeting

6. Agenda

7. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL AM.Chairs/leads*Speakers/ contributors 1Introduction 0830- 0845 1.1Welcome, introductions, local arrangementsA Busalacchi/ T Palmer 0845- 0930 1.2Introduction to CLIVAR SSG-14 including metrics for CLIVAR and strawman road map A Busalacchi 0930- 0945 1.2 co nt DiscussionA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All 2.WCRP & sponsor input 0945- 1030 2.1Future directions for WCRP; JSC-27 recommendations for CLIVAR; JPS; WCRP funding A Busalacchi/ T Palmer A Henderson Sellers 1030- 1050 Coffee/tea 1050- 1105 2.2IOC programme needs as a WCRP sponsorA Busalacchi/ T Palmer R Dargaville 1105- 1120 2.3WMO & WGNE activities relevant to CLIVARA Busalacchi/ T Palmer P Silva Dias 3.Reports against CLIVAR science themes 3.1ENSO and other models of tropical variability 1120- 1150 3.1.1 Current status and science directions & needsA Busalacchi/ T Palmer M Reinecker 1050- 1230 3.1.2 How is CLIVAR adressing this theme? Round table contributions From chairs/reps of the Pacific & Atlantic Panels, AAMP & WGSIP and others M RieneckerPanels & Working Group chairs/reps 1230- 1400 Lunch

8. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL PM Chairs/leadsSpeakers/ contributors 1400- 1430 3.1.3Discussion: Developing the road map: the ENSO/TV theme within CLIVAR A Timmerman*All 1430- 1515 Science lecture: The GEF project for the La Plata Basin A Busalacchi/ T Palmer V Barros & J Rucks 1515- 1535 Coffee/tea 3.2Monsoons 1535- 1605 3.2.1Current status & science directions and needs A Busalacchi/ T Palmer B Wang 1605- 1615 3.2.2Summary of outcomes of pan-WCRP Monsoon Modelling Workshop & JSC responses A Busalacchi/ T Palmer H Cattle 1615- 1630 3.2.3Developments in GEWEX & GEWEX monsoon activities A Busalacchi/ T Palmer S Sorooshian 1630- 1745 3.2.4 part 1 How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Reports from VACS + AMMA (30 mins), VAMOS, & AAMP & IOP (20 mins each) & round table contributions from other Panel & Working Group chairs/reps B WangPanel & Working Group chairs/reps 1745END OF DAY 1 Cocktail at 1900

9. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA THURSDAY 20 APRIL AM Chairs/leads*Speakers/ contributors 0830- 0915 3.2.4 cont How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Reports from VACS + AMMA (30 mins), VAMOS, & AAMP & IOP (20 mins each) & round table contributions from other Panel & Working Group chairs/reps B WangPanel & Working Group chairs/reps 0915- 1000 3.2.5Discussion: Developing the Roadmap: The monsoon theme within CLIVAR and WCRP more widely D Waliser*All 1000- 1015 2.4IGBP/WCRP linksA Busalacchi/ T Palmer C Nobre 1015- 1035 Coffee/tea 3.3Decadal variability & the thc 1035- 1105 3.3.1Current status & science directions & needsA Busalacchi/ T Palmer J Marotzke 1105- 1155 3.3.2How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Round table contributions from Atlantic, Pacific, Indian and Southern ocean basin panels, WGCM & others J MarotzkePanel & Working Group chairs/reps 1155- 1205 3.3.3Plans for a CLIVAR Workshop on Multi- decadal variability A Busalacchi/ T Palmer A Timmermann 1205- 1235 3.3.4Discussion: Developing the Roadmap: The decadal variability & thc theme within CLIVAR W HazeleglerAll 1235- 1405 Lunch

10. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA THURSDAY 20 APRIL PM Chairs/leadsSpeakers/ contributors 3.4Anthropogenic climate change 1400- 1430 3.4.1Current status and science directions and needs A Busalacchi/ T Palmer T Tokioka for B McAveney 1430- 1530 3.4.2 part 1 How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Reports from WGCM including AR4 runs (30 mins), ETCCD & CLIVAR/PAGES (15 mins each). Round table contributions from other Panel & Working Group chairs/reps T TokiokaPanel & Working Group Chairs/reps 1530- 1550 Coffee/tea 1550- 1630 3.4.2 part 2 How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Reports from WGCM including AR4 runs (30 mins), ETCCD & CLIVAR/PAGES (15 mins each). Round table contributions from other Panel & Working Group chairs/reps T TokiokaPanel & Working Group Chairs/reps 1630- 1700 3.4.3Discussion: Developing the Roadmap: The ACC theme within CLIVAR T Palmer*All 1700- 1720 6.1CLIVAR outreach – summary reviewA Busalacchi/T Palmer H Cullen 1720END OF DAY 2, Tango Dinner 2000

11. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA FRIDAY 21 APRIL AM Chairs/leads*Speakers/ contributors 4.GLOBAL modelling activities and regional/global modelling panel links 0830- 0900 4.1Current status of coupled modelling and science needs and how WGCM is adressing them A Busalacchi / T Palmer G Meehl 0900- 0930 4.2Current status of ocean model development and science needs and how WGOMD is addressing these A Busalacchi/ T Palmer S Griffies 0930- 1000 4.3Current status of seasonal prediction and science needs and how WGSIP/TFSP is addressing these A Busalacchi/ T Palmer B Kirtman 1000- 1020 Coffee/tea 1020- 1050 4.4Discussion (lead): Developing the roadmap: modelling activities within CLIVAR, including global/regional linkages, links with GEWEX etc P Silva Dias*All 5.The ocean’s role in climate 1050- 1115 5.1Current status of the global ocean observing system, including PIRATA review and CLIVAR’s role A Busalacchi/ T Palmer E Harrison 1115- 1145 5.2Report on GSOP activities including current status of reanalysis activities, science directions and needs and CLIVAR data management A Busalacchi/ T Palmer D Stammer 1145- 1230 5.3Discussion: CLIVAR’s ocean observational needs, ocean reanalysis and CLIVAR data management D Legler*All 1230- 1400 Lunch

12. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA FRIDAY 21 APRIL PM Chairs/leads*Speakers/ contributors 1400- 1540 5.4Basin Panel observing system and synthesis issues and science issues not covered previously. Reports from Atlantic (including TACE and ACP) (30 mins), Pacific and Southern Ocean Basin Panels (20 mins each), TIP (10 mins); TACE & ACP discussion. R WellerPanel & Working Group chairs/reps 1540- 1600 Coffee/tea 1600- 1645 Science lecture: Regional ocean science activities A Busalacchi/ T Palmer A Piola 1645- 1705 5.5Developments in IGBP IMBERA Busalacchi/ T Palmer 1705- 1750 5.6Developing the Roadmap: the role of the oceans in climate. How do we best address CLIVAR’s ocean observational and synthesis needs and links to wider activities; how do we best respond to IOC’s needs? Scope of an SSG Workshop on the ‘Role of the Oceans in CLIMATE R Weller *All END OF DAY 3

13. CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA SATURDAY 22 APRIL AM Chairs/leadsSpeakers/ contributors 6.Role of the ICPO: programme visibility and outreach (including the web pages, publications etc) 0830- 0850 6.2ICPO report; recap of outreach review & discussion (item 6.1) A Busalacchi/ T Palmer H Cattle 0850- 0900 6.1/ 6.2 DiscussionA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All 7.National activities 0900- 0910 7.1Summary of Netherlands’ reportA Busalacchi/ T Palmer Wilco Hazeleger 0910- 0930 7.2Briefing on US CLIVAR reorganisationA Busalacchi/ T Palmer D Legler 0930- 0950 8.Presentation on MedCLIVARA Busalacchi/ T Palmer P Lionello 0950- 1030 9.Revisit of Roadmap.plans for the coming yearA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All 1030- 1050 Coffee/tea 1050- 1140 10.Review of action items; revisit of issues as necessaryA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All 1140- 1210 11.Panel and Working Group membershipA Busalacchi/ T Palmer Panel & Working Group chairs/reps 1210- 1220 12Date and place of next meetingA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All 1220- 1230 13.Close A Busalacchi/ T Palmer END OF SSG-14

14. Review of SSG 13

16. 650+ Attendees - the largest WCRP Conference ever! 56 Countries 650+ Posters 35 Oral presentations 9 Discussants 4 Press briefings –17 panelists, 5 moderators –Several stories went to print… 80+ students, 16 poster awards 14 Major sponsors Conference Statistics

17. CLIVAR Assessment Organised by: –CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implemenation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs –Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling” –Overall programme structure & the ICPO

18. CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas

19. CLIVAR Assessment Organised by: –CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implemenation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs –Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling” –Overall programme structure & the ICPO Team of 6 assessors and SSG liaisons Inputs –Panel & Working Group responses to questionnaire –CLIVAR web pages & documents –Reviewer/Panel & WG interactions –CLIVAR Conference Written & oral reports to CLIVAR SSG-13 Subsequent analysis of outcomes

20. Key outcomes of CLIVAR to date Creation of a sustained demand for global ocean and atmospheric climate observations, in situ & remotely-sensed Creation of a sustained demand for global ocean and atmospheric climate observations, in situ & remotely-sensed St Raphael Conference (Oceanobs’99) and definition of the approach to global ocean observations, e.g., St Raphael Conference (Oceanobs’99) and definition of the approach to global ocean observations, e.g., –Extension of buoy arrays into the Atlantic Ocean –Developing Indian Ocean climate observing system –New focus on ocean climate re-analysis –Global ARGO deployment Stimulated climate model development, e.g., CPT Stimulated climate model development, e.g., CPT Routine operational seasonal forecasts, forecast system intercomparisons and development of ensemble prediction methods Routine operational seasonal forecasts, forecast system intercomparisons and development of ensemble prediction methods Experimental decadal prediction Experimental decadal prediction Global change model scenarios underpinning IPCC Global change model scenarios underpinning IPCC Focus on American monsoon systems and processes (VAMOS NAME & MESA) Focus on American monsoon systems and processes (VAMOS NAME & MESA)

21. CLIVAR - global view

22. Key issues of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Science Foci Regional analysis of global model outputs and feedback Global synthesis & observation links Strengthen CLIVAR activity in ACC Links between process studies & model improvement Cross CLIVAR effort on climate indices Ocean observing strategy including hydrography & carbon links Ocean reanalysis activity & related data management issues Pan WCRP monsoon activity (with GEWEX) Applications of CLIVAR science

24. Key issues of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Summary Response On an annual basis CLIVAR progress will be assessed against four major global themes: ENSO, Monsoons, THC/Decadal and ACC. Each year a topical workshop will be held for one of the four themes. ACC representation to be increased on SSG Global perspective/framework to be provided by GSOP, WGSIP, WGCM, WGOMD, and CCD Global to regional perspective provided by Monsoon Panels for VAMOS, VACS, and AAMP and Ocean Basin Panels for Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans

25. Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Management Foci Continued programme assessment Annual workshops against the 4 science foci in turn (ENSO, ACC, Monsoons, Decadal/THC) Overall CLIVAR structure CLIVAR’s global regional panel interactions CLIVAR visibility and networking Overall CLIVAR data and information management Web site development New structure for the ICPO

27. Progress Since SSG 13 GSOP (unto its own, as predecessor to WOAP) GSOP (unto its own, as predecessor to WOAP) Basin panels metric input to GSOP Basin panels metric input to GSOP Climate Process Team (CPT) concept Climate Process Team (CPT) concept USCLIVAR/WCRP analyses of AR4 USCLIVAR/WCRP analyses of AR4 Joint CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon meeting on behalf of JSC Joint CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon meeting on behalf of JSC New web site New web site Renewal of ICPO NERC Grant Renewal of ICPO NERC Grant

28. Summary of JSC XXVIII

29. Summary of JSC XXVII COPES COPES X

30. Summary of JSC XXVII Task Forces ~ 2 years Task Forces ~ 2 years –Sea Level TF, June 2006 meeting –TFSP  CLIVAR/WGSIP post 2007 meeting ENSO definition ENSO definition POC for CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon Coordination POC for CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon Coordination CLIVAR VACS East African Workshop CLIVAR VACS East African Workshop USCLIVR/WGCM AR4 Analysis Workshop USCLIVR/WGCM AR4 Analysis Workshop WCRP-IGBP Joint Session, SPARC and IGAC to develop Climate and Chemistry initiative WCRP-IGBP Joint Session, SPARC and IGAC to develop Climate and Chemistry initiative CLIVAR asked to review GEWEX MAHASRI and CEOP II CLIVAR asked to review GEWEX MAHASRI and CEOP II WGCM encouraged to consider decadal predictability WGCM encouraged to consider decadal predictability

31. Summary of JSC XXVII All projects “requested” to submit program metrics All projects “requested” to submit program metrics

32. Performance metrics for CLIVAR  New resources enabled by leveraging off of CLIVAR efforts, (e.g. $15M GEF funding of LPB, ESF MedCLIVAR, Climate Process Teams, AR4 analyses)  Improvements in: 1.the spectral character (i.e. spectral power, frequency) and 2.predictability of ISO, seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in coupled models  Number of global ocean observation deployments and transition of process study and research observations to operational status (e.g.TAO)  Reduction of uncertainty in climate models, bias reduction, and the number of new parameterizations incorporated into operational models (e.g. CPT on marine stratus, VOCALS)  Metric tracking capacity building within and incorporation of developing nations into CLIVAR activities (e.g. efforts within VAMOS, VACS, AAMP)  Global and regional data products enabled by CLIVAR (e.g., global ocean data renalyses, African Climate Atlas)

33. Summary of JSC XXVII All projects “requested” to submit program metrics All projects “requested” to submit program metrics CLIVAR metrics adopted by essentially all the other projects CLIVAR metrics adopted by essentially all the other projects WCRP Road Map WCRP Road Map –Project by Project –JSC and WCRP as a whole

34. Summary of JSC XXVII Where does CLIVAR fit into this state space? 1.Current State. How does CLIVAR currently “populate” this space 2.Future Physical Climate System. How and where does CLIVAR intend to “grow” physical climate science so that we are seen to identify, encourage and facilitate the best research in the world? 3.Future Seamless Prediction Goal. How does CLIVAR plan to move our current climate science towards our stated goal of seamless climate prediction? 4.Future Earth System Contribution Target. How does CLIVAR plan to move our current climate science toward the desired aim of contributing to Earth System projection and interpretation? 5.Benefits Delivery. How and to whom are CLIVAR research benefits delivered?

35. Purpose of this meeting Somewhat abbreviated SSG given SHAMS Somewhat abbreviated SSG given SHAMS Sponsor/Context setting WCRP, IOC, WMO, IGBP Sponsor/Context setting WCRP, IOC, WMO, IGBP New approach to SSG meeting (still some kinks, input welcome) New approach to SSG meeting (still some kinks, input welcome) Focus on ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC, ACC, Role of Oceans, Global Modeling Focus on ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC, ACC, Role of Oceans, Global Modeling In contrast to long series of possibly disconnected panel reports In contrast to long series of possibly disconnected panel reports Organized into a series of mini-assessments (SSG engagement is crucial) Organized into a series of mini-assessments (SSG engagement is crucial) Development of CLIVAR Roadmap Development of CLIVAR Roadmap

36. Template for reporting for CLIVAR SSG-14 1.Panel or Working Group: 2.Contributions to CLIVAR’s 4 major themes:  2.1ENSO and other modes of tropical variability:  2.2Monsoons:  2.3Decadal variability and the thermohaline circulation:  2.4Anthropogenic climate change:  3.Summary of contribution to annual thematic workshop(s)  4.Contributions to the additional theme of the ocean’s role in climate (where not covered under the 4 themes)  5.Highlights of contributions to wider areas of climate science, including modelling, observational and synthesis studies:

37. 6.New activities being planned:  6.1Modelling activities, including activities related to regional assessment of global model outputs:  6.2Synthesis activities:  6.3Coordinated field programmes and other observational activities:  6.4Workshops etc:  6.5Links to applications:  6.6Other: 7.Cross Panel and Working Group Links: 8.Cross WCRP/COPES links 9.Data management activities: 10.Review of appropriateness of ToRs 11.Issues for the SSG:

38. CLIVAR - global view

39. Purpose of this meeting Theme Lead Overview: State of science, current status, science directions, needs Theme Lead Overview: State of science, current status, science directions, needs Roundtable: How is CLIVAR addressing this theme. Panel contributions to crosscut theme. Roundtable: How is CLIVAR addressing this theme. Panel contributions to crosscut theme. Theme Assessor: Developing the road map, path ahead. Synthesis. Gap analysis, redundancies. What will we do by 2007, 2010, 2013? Where will we be at these milestones? (Note also JSC matrix.) Theme Assessor: Developing the road map, path ahead. Synthesis. Gap analysis, redundancies. What will we do by 2007, 2010, 2013? Where will we be at these milestones? (Note also JSC matrix.) Report back on Saturday Report back on Saturday

40. Purpose of this meeting ENSO and Tropical Variability Theme Lead Overview: Michele Rienecker ENSO and Tropical Variability Theme Lead Overview: Michele Rienecker Roundtable: Pacific, Atlantic, AAMP, WGSIP, etc. Roundtable: Pacific, Atlantic, AAMP, WGSIP, etc. Theme Assessor: Axel Timmermann Theme Assessor: Axel Timmermann

41. IOZDM Atlantic Nino I,II Meridional mode Meridional mode ENSO monsoo n Synthesis

42. ENSO Meridional mode Pacific Atlantic NINO Meridional Mode Atlantic Indian Monsoon IOZDM Indian monopole Synthesis Which interactions need to be resolved further? What data do we need to understand these links? What numerical experiments ought to be done to elucidate the mechanisms?

43. Purpose of this meeting Monsoon Theme Lead Overview: Bin Wang Monsoon Theme Lead Overview: Bin Wang Roundtable: VAMOS (NAME, MESA,VOCAL, LPB/PLATIN), VACS (AMMA), AAMP, IOP, GEWEX Roundtable: VAMOS (NAME, MESA,VOCAL, LPB/PLATIN), VACS (AMMA), AAMP, IOP, GEWEX Theme Assessor: Duane Walliser Theme Assessor: Duane Walliser

44. Purpose of this meeting Decadal Variability and THC Theme Lead Overview: Jochum Marotzke Decadal Variability and THC Theme Lead Overview: Jochum Marotzke Roundtable: Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, WGCM, IOP, etc. Roundtable: Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, WGCM, IOP, etc. Theme Assessor: Wilco Hazeleger Theme Assessor: Wilco Hazeleger

45. Purpose of this meeting ACC Theme Lead Overview: Tatsushi Tokioka for Bryant McAveney ACC Theme Lead Overview: Tatsushi Tokioka for Bryant McAveney Roundtable: WGCM, ETCCD, PAGES Roundtable: WGCM, ETCCD, PAGES Theme Assessor: Jerry Meehl Theme Assessor: Jerry Meehl

46. Purpose of this meeting Global Modelling Theme Lead Overview: Jerry Meehl Global Modelling Theme Lead Overview: Jerry Meehl Roundtable: WGCM, WGOMD, WGSIP Roundtable: WGCM, WGOMD, WGSIP Theme Assessor: Pedro Silva Dias Theme Assessor: Pedro Silva Dias

47. Purpose of this meeting Ocean’s Role in Climate Theme Lead Overview: Ed Harrison Ocean’s Role in Climate Theme Lead Overview: Ed Harrison Roundtable: GSOP, Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, IOP Roundtable: GSOP, Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, IOP Theme Assessor: Bob Weller Theme Assessor: Bob Weller

48. Thanks!