1. Beyond 2013

2. CLIVAR Imperatives Anthropogenic Climate Change
Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction
Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs
Data Synthesis and Analysis
Ocean Observing System
Capacity Building

3. Decadal variability & predictability
First attempts already underway
Decadal prediction part of CMIP5 protocol – Joint design by WCRP/WGCM/WGSIP/CLIVAR sub group
Opportunities for diagnostic sub-projects
CLIVAR Workshop
Atlantic Panel coordination of activities to monitor the Atlantic MOC
Ocean observations will be at the heart of decadal climate prediction systems. Major challenges will, therefore, be to continually assess whether existing and planned ocean observing systems are optimal for decadal predictions and to address any identified deficiencies. As one example, a tremendous advance has been the measurements of temperature and salinity over the upper 2000 m of the global ocean currently provided by ARGO profiling floats. There exists, however, a need to assess whether observations from below 2000 m would be of use in decadal climate predictions by more completely characterizing deep ocean conditions, such as the lower limb of the MOC, and in assessing other changes such as in abyssal ocean heat content. Also, with a lifetime of individual ARGO floats of only a few years, there is a need to evaluate and minimize the impact of instrumentation changes on the quality of the records both for climate analyses and for initializing prediction models.

4. Anthropogenic Climate Change
Realize long-term CMIP5 climate change integrations under WGCM/AIMES joint planning.
Promote analysis of CMIP5 though diagnostic sub projects.
Explore regional change through CLIVAR regional panels.

5. Climate extremes Develop and Strengthen Interactions with
CLIVAR with GEWEX focused WCRP activity on drought: Drought Implementation Group (to be reported on by GEWEX)
WMO CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI continued development of global indices data base and analysis through capacity-building workshops and input to IPCC
WGCM: analysis of extremes in higher resolution decadal prediction simulations
Priorities Over the Next 5+ years
Develop and Strengthen Interactions with
Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Communities
Develop and strengthen existing links with IMBER,
PICES, SIBER (INDIAN OCEAN), IOCCP
Joint targeted workshops
Develop ocean carbon aspects of ocean synthesis
activities (WGCM with IGBP AIMES/WGOMD; GSOP
Strengthen SSG in this area
Developing focus on droughts, building on GEWEX activities in CEOP and US CLIVAR drought activity

6. Ocean Model Development
Key to achieving CLIVAR/WCRP goals for ocean analysis, seasonal and decadal prediction and anthropogenic climate change
Improved Ocean Models (WGOMD)
WGOMD: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE)
CORE-I Results: Multi-century simulations with a 500 year repeat annual cycle forcing (Large & Yeager 2004, 2008): Griffies et al., 2009: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) Ocean Modelling
Developing focus on droughts, building on GEWEX activities in CEOP and US CLIVAR drought activity
CORE-II underway – flexible design:

7. CLIVAR/WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) Major future plans/activities
Focus & priorities over the next 5+ years:
Evaluation & Understanding:
Evaluation of OAGCMs
better definition of model outputs
bridge to observations and processes
Narrowing of the gap between modeling and understanding
hierarchy of model experiments
sensitivity & idealized experiments
Longer term (mid-century to 2100+)
Climate sensitivity
radiative forcing
physical feedbacks (e.g. clouds)
Carbon-climate feedbacks
1st generation of Earth System Models
interactive carbon cycle and vegetation
intermediate resolution (~ 200 km)
Near term (next 30 years) :
Decadal prediction
initialisation of coupled models
factors that provide decadal predictability
Regional information & extremes
high resolution models (~ 50 km)
short-lived species (aerosols, chemistry..)

8. Seasonal (and Longer-Term) Prediction
Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) Major future plans/activities
CHFP Participation and Analysis
Increase visibility of CHFP (climate system historical forecast experiment)
Increase regional capacity through training on the use of CHFP data for application: IAI Training Institute on the Use of Seasonal Predictions for Applications in Latin America 02 – 13 August, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Assessment of climate models in seasonal forecast mode
CMIP5 Near Term Experiments Coordinated Analysis
Initialization, Predictability,Multi-mode combination, Skill --> Internal variability v. external forcing
Priorities Over the Next 5+ years
Seasonal (and Longer-Term) Prediction
Facilitate completion of key process studies and
enhanced observing system campaigns
Improve prediction of key tropical modes (ENSO, TAV)