PO 111: INTRODUCTION TO AMERICAN POLITICS Summer I (2014) Claire Leavitt Boston University

TABLE OF CONTENTS The Problems with Elections –Principal-agent problem –Restrictive voting laws –The people themselves: low turnout Who Votes, Who Doesn’t—and Why Not? –Low civic engagement –Failed mobilization efforts –Negative campaign ads The Effects of Negative Advertising Campaigns: What Are They Good For?

PRINCIPLES OF REPUBLICAN DEMOCRACY Delegation of the people’s power to elected representatives (principal-agent relationship) No guarantee that agents will accurately represent their constituents (principal-agent problem) Elections are meant to hold agents accountable for misrepresenting their constituents How well elected agents represent their constituents views vary according to circumstance (and issue area)

TYPES OF AGENT REPRESENTATION Direct representation: Agents follow constituents wishes directly and constituents reward their agents accordingly (social issues) Interest-based representation: Agents do not follow constituents wishes and instead respond to other incentives; agents know they won’t be punished for it (foreign policy)

TYPES OF AGENT REPRESENTATION Strategic representation: Agents take constituents’ wishes into account but try to get away with diverging from these wishes and not be punished for it (economic issues) Some divergence from constituents’ wishes is natural, even desirable

TYPES OF AGENT REPRESENTATION Strategic representation: Agents take constituents’ wishes into account but try to get away with diverging from these wishes and not be punished for it (economic issues) Some divergence from constituents’ wishes is natural, even desirable

SUFFRAGE RESTRICTIONS Constitution allows states to enact their own voting laws/regulations Pre-Jackson, voting was considered a privilege only of affluent white Protestant men Universal white male suffrage achieved in the 1840s Extension of the vote to blacks and women was based not just on principle but on political considerations

SUFFRAGE RESTRICTIONS Voting Rights Act (1965): Forced discriminatory states to get approval from the Justice Department before making changes to voting laws Current version of the VRA overturned by the Supreme Court in 2013 Voter-ID laws, disenfranchisement of felons laws and disparate impact: Effects matter

THE PEOPLE: FAILURE OF THE PRINCIPALS Turnout has decreased since mid-century –68% (approximately) in the 1960s –55% (approximately) in the 1990s –58% (approximately) in the 2000s and today 26 th amendment lowering the voting age decreased the proportion of eligible voters who actually went to the polls Who votes? Age and education level matter most

WHY HAS TURNOUT DECREASED? The rationality of voting: the “free rider” problem Decreased civic engagement and weakening civil society connections (Bowling Alone, 2000) The rise of individualism (TV and Internet) Changes in mobilization tactics –Modern campaigns’ harnessing of the power of the Internet may explain slight increase in turnout over the 2000s

WHY HAS TURNOUT DECREASED? Distrust in government in general has no observed effect on voter turnout Negative ads may incite disgust and apathy and convince voters not to turn out for this specific race Negative ads may convince voters to lodge protest votes for the negative campaign’s opponent

THE POWER OF CAMPAIGN ADS What can campaign ads do? –Inform potential voters –Prime potential voters –Frame specific issues –Awaken dormant opinions and convince viewers to vote Ads cannot change a person’s mind Positive ads can increase participation

THE POWER OF NEGATIVE ADS Negative campaign ads can: –Energize the base –Increase media attention toward the campaign –Allow the campaign to set the news agenda for the media –Dissuade moderates and swing voters from showing up to the polls –May convince moderates and swing voters to vote for the opponent out of disgust Negative ads are high risk-high reward

THE POWER OF NEGATIVE ADS What are these negative ads attempting to do? –“Daisy” (LBJ, 1964) –“3 AM” (Clinton, 2008) –“Celebrity” (McCain, 2008) –“Weekend Passes” (Bush, 1988) –“Promise” (Elizabeth Dole, 2008) –“True Conservative” (Claire McCaskill, 2012)

THE POWER OF CAMPAIGNS If campaigns can’t change minds, what can they do? –Like negative ads, campaigns can awaken people’s dormant preferences and prime them to consider certain issues most important –People don’t need to explain or even accurately define their preferences/beliefs but, fundamentally, they know they have them

THE POWER OF CAMPAIGNS Campaigns inform voters that the the candidate is a Democrat and believes X, Y and Z Campaigns reveal to voters that they, too, are Democrats who believe X, Y and Z Campaigns convince voters that because they are Democrats and believe X, Y and Z, they should go out and vote for Obama