Measures of Short and Long Term Viability of an Agricultural Region Researchers: Xianfeng Su, Geoff Carlin Project leaders: Senthold Asseng, Freeman Cook, Peter Campbell, Michael Poole Main collaborators: Steven Schilizzi, Henry Brockman, Blair Nancarrow, Mescal Stephens, Atakelty Hailu, Angela Wardell-Johnson, Shams Bhuiyan, Scott Heckbert, Mick Harcher, Tom McShane, Art Langston University of Western Australia

 Project Aims & Background  Biophysical, Economic and Social Components Analysis  Model Design  Model Framework  Simulation OUTLINE Simulating Farmers and Land-Use Change

Improve the long-term viability of agricultural regions ? Natural Resource Condition and Trend Stable & resilient local communities Long-term viability characterised by outcomes from: Yield/profit, economic sustainability region

Objectives, Scenarios and Case Study Areas Objectives To understand the complex interactions between human and landscape change processes To study emergent behaviours in human-landscape systems To improve the long-term viability of an agricultural region Scenarios Climate change Environmental risk perception/management New technology Policies Market Social values Katanning Region in Blackwood Catchment Burdekin Delta

Biophysical, Economic and Social Changes  Trajectory -Individual farmers information -Shires record -Regional data  Drivers found -Farmer interviews -Consultants -Literature reviews -Historical land-use change analysis

30 km risk Natural/planted vegetation Digital Elevation Map

Historical Land-use Changes Resource: CMIS CSIRO Salinity & Waterlogging riskNatural/planted vegetation cover 30 km

Change in crop/pasture ratio, Katanning/Kent shire & Auction Price of Greasy Wool Data: Hailu, UWA Wool price (cent/kg) Years % of total area Years

Other changes: Population & age pattern Katanning town Data: ABS

 Population decreased, old age trends  cropped area increased & pasture area decreased  Land value increased  Costs of farm operating increased  Market price changed  New technology: canola has become a major income for some farmers  Land degraded Summary

Model design Integrating biophysical, economic and social models Cropping model Social Network Model Economical Model Policies Landscape Soil (erosion, degradation) Surface and ground water Land cover (crops/crop trees/pasture/natural vegetation, infrastructure, town) Livestock Hydrology model Output Land cover and livestock dynamics % degraded land Nutrient cycling Society Farmer: attributes and behaviours. Household: structure, status, management strategies Community: relations & structure, functions Demography dynamics Economics International and National market Bank: interest Household: productions, investment and consumption Output Household cash flow Loan Atmosphere Output Agent’s Courses of Actions; Demographics pattern; Communities structure and changes Information diffusion

Concept Behind the Decision Making Process Capacities & Constrains of biophysical, economic and social components Model design

Abstraction of Main Objects Biophysical Capacities & ConstraintsFinancial Capacities & ConstraintsSocial Capacities & Constraints

Decision Making Process Model design  Agent Beliefs + Situation-action rules behaviour (reactive agents) (Doran 1999)  Agent Beliefs + Goals + “Rational” Planning behaviour (deliberative agents) (Doran 1999)  Person needs and value Ability/capability Opportunity Uncertainty Behaviour    

Decision making drivers - land use  Market  Economic scale and margin  Rotation  Time  Profit  Habits  Do the same as last year -- from Farmer Interviews Model design

 Money  Time  Successful plan  Family  Skilled casual workers  Farm size  Risk management -- from Farmer Interviews Constraints for running a farm: Model design

Evaluate Lifestyle Factors COA Farmer – farm diary driven COA Adopt new farming technology or new crop COA Evaluate environmental perceptions COA Non-farmer low resolution collection of COA’s Employment COA Evaluate Regional Amentities/Services COA Major employer viability COA Abbatoirs Tree Nursery Sheep Saleyards Lumped Retail Lumped Farm Wholesale Government & other organization regional services viability COA Health Services Education Services Local Government Services Sports Clubs Other Recreation & Service Clubs, etc. Top Level COA VIEW

Simulation For Farmer Action A set of Actions A C Behaviour-oriented Finance flow Trigger Action Information organization Individual /household consequence Gov. Market community D JanFebDecMar. Action AAction B Start End Year Information Information transfer -> Make a decision-> take a action ->Behaviour Change Model design

An Example of COA in Programming Model design

A simple Time Template used in the program

Framework – DIAS/FACET/JEOVIEWER  Domain model -- DIAS framework Connect: -Hydrology Model -Economic Model -Social network model  Social network & COAs -- FACET  Output -- JEOVIEWER

Simulation