1. The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate risk Philip Kokic Research Scientist, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems with Steven Crimp, Rohan Nelson, Mark Howden, Peter Brown & other colleagues Climate Adaptation Flagship

2. Slide 2 Overview Australia’s exposure to climate risk The rural livelihoods framework Adaptive capacity measures for rural communities Sample surveys used to construct an adaptive capacity index Vulnerability assessment

3. Slide 3 The climate is variable & changing Source: BoM Rainfall variabilityTrend in total rainfall

4. Slide 4 Australian temperatures Marked acceleration in Australian warming trend. 1910-2009 +0.12 o C/decade Source: CBoM 1975-2009 +0.24 o C/decade 1957-2009 +0.20 o C/decade

5. Slide 5 Lo et al., 2007. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 3506-3520. Southern hemisphere – high pressure, spring Trend in anti-cyclone density, 1970-2008

6. Slide 6 Southern hemisphere – high pressure, spring

7. Slide 7 Narrow disciplinary and institutional perspectives have provided few practical options for policymakers dealing with the complex and interacting goals of adaptation –climate-centric not human-centric –identifies the problem but not solutions –pressure to reduce policy goals to fit the scientific methods and agendas Significant blockage in science-policy interface The science – policy interface

8. Slide 8 Livelihood platform Human Social Natural Physical Financial H’hold capacity Livelihood strategies Resulting in Natural Resource based activities non -NR based activities Composed of Attributes of management practices Livelihood security Environ’l sustainability With effects on Aspirations The rural livelihoods conceptual framework Institutions Organisations Social relations Access modified by Shocks Trends In the context of Rural livelihoods context Outcomes …Source: Ellis (2000)

9. Slide 9 The Australian farm survey Survey ~ 2000 farms annually Broadacre and dairy industries only Stratified rotating random sample GREG estimates based on Agricultural census benchmarks Basic collection Physical Production Financial Supplementary surveys Human and social aspects Sampled farms 2004-05 Survey regions Source: ABARE

10. Slide 10 Measuring adaptive capacity Human capital Operator and spouse education level, health status Social capital Landcare member, number of business partners, internet use Natural capital Pasture growth index, dams per hectare, remnant vegetation Physical capital Plant and machinery, structures, livestock Financial capital Capital value, total income, access to finance Source of data: Australian farm survey, ABS survey, Natural resource surveys

11. Slide 11 Constructing the adaptive capacity measure Adaptive Capacity Index HumanSocialNaturalPhysicalFinancial Hv1Hv2Hv3 Sv1Sv2 Nv1Nv2Nv3 Nv4 Pv1 Sv3 Pv2 Fv1Fv2Fv3 Using equal weightsResult using PCA loadings

12. Slide 12 (Nelson et al. 2010) Human Social Physical Financial Natural Adaptive Capacity

13. Slide 13 Vulnerability to income risk High Medium Low High Moderate Medium High Moderate Low High Moderate Low Integrated vulnerability assessment Adaptive capacity Exposure to income risk

14. Slide 14 The vulnerability of rural communities To pasture growth variabilityTo farm income variability No data Least vulnerable Moderately vulnerable Most vulnerable

15. Slide 15 Summary Rural communities have adapted and flourished in extreme climate risk Evaluating risk solely on biophysical measures is misleading Adaptation measures are policy relevant Sample survey techniques can be used to measure and construct an adaptive capacity index Vulnerability needs to be assessed against all sources of risk.

16. Slide 16 Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Thank you CMIS Environmetrics Dr. Philip Kokic Senior Research Scientist Phone: +61 2 6242 1735 Email: philip.kokic@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au/cmis