1. Assessment Process for Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture “Ecosystem chapter” based on material supplied by Habiba Gitay consultant to the Comprehensive Assessment

2. What is an assessment? An Assessment Is a critical and objective evaluation of information, for guiding decisions on a complex, public issue (or issues) It is based around policy-relevant or user/stakeholder questions It is designed to inform a specific audience or ‘authorising environment’ (It does but it is not designed to introduce yet new jargon – please ask if you get confused)

3. An assessment Is not a medium for presenting new research findings …. –Most data are already collected, peer-reviewed and in public domain, or in other assessments –Can be ‘gap-filling’, and contain new (re)runs of old models and syntheses Focuses on identified policy questions/issues –Judgement on veracity and uncertainty of evidence, clearly labelled, is required Is not a personal advocacy piece –Represents a ‘balanced’ and evidence-based view from the writing team, with external review, and demonstrated response to the review Is not an opportunity to promote pet topics or own work, nor develop personal research agendas –It is a team effort and assessment of the evidence

4. Some Characteristics of an Assessment Process: open, transparent, reviewed, widely representative Technically accurate, evidence-based Aims to reduce complexity, but add value to existing information –summation, synthesis and sorting of what is known and widely accepted from what is not known or not agreed or uncertain Conducted by a team of experts –broad range of disciplinary and geographical experience; different knowledge systems –able to work together and have fun – team rapport is necessary

5. ReviewAssessment AudienceScientistsDecision-makers Conducted byOne or a fewLarger and varied group Issues/topicSimple and narrowBroad and complex Identifies gaps inResearch: driven by curiosity Knowledge for implementation: problem- driven (Un)certainty statements Not requiredEssential JudgementHidden, more objective Required and clearly flagged SynthesisNot requiredEssential to reduce complexity CoverageExhaustive, historical Sufficient to deal with main range of uncertainty

6. Dealing with (un)certainty Quantitative scale Very certain (>=97.5% probability) High certainty (83-97.5%) Medium certainty (67-83%) Low certainty (52.5-67%) Very uncertain (<52.5%)

7. Dealing with (un)certainty - qualitative scale Can be used in main text; must be used in Executive Summary / Summary for Decision-Makers Level of agreement or consensus Low High Amount of evidence (observations, theory, model outputs etc) Established but incomplete Well Established Speculative incomplete Competing Explanations

8. Framework for the Assessment Based on (much improved) the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Concentrates on issues or questions Gives focus / keeps us on track Four important components Development Goals Pressures / Drivers of change Resource Base – agricultural systems / biodiversity landscape Outcomes / Impacts Consider & document (draft) key messages covering strategies, interventions, investments & agricultural practices (to support achievement of Goals), provide & assess evidence and case studies

9. Development Goals Poverty and hunger reduction sustainable growth, improved health and nutrition, Environmental sustainability Equity Outcomes / Impacts (+/-) Food, Fibre, Income, employment Changes in resource base (nutrients, degradation/enhancement) Pressures/Drivers/ Trends Population and consumption patterns Urbanization Trade Climate Change Increasing Complexity Agricultural Systems Fishery, livestock, crops, agro-forestry/plantation Strategies, interventions & investments Agricultural / Environmental practices Policies on subsidies, trade, Market access Resource Base Water, Soil, Biodiversity Human capacity Management Interventions