1. Key Challenges and Opportunities for Reducing Vulnerability 1.Diversification - No Framework for Implementing and Evaluating Payments for Ecosystem Services – Wildlife Conservation 2. Lack of Integrated Land-Use Planning 3. Over Exploitation of Natural Resources 4. Poor Animal and Crop Health 5. Poor Market Engagement SRT 2 Satellite Site – S. Kenya and N. Tanzania

2. Preliminary Impact Pathways Conceptual /Overall Hypothesis/Problem Statement: Pastoralists and farmers in S. Kenya and N. Tanzania face livelihood constraints that include: markets, crop-livestock integration, land holding vulnerability and uncoordinated land use, an unsupportive policy and institutional framework, and over exploitation of the natural resource base. Reducing system vulnerability can be supported through: improved integrated land-use planning and policies to reduce vulnerability(land fragmentation, access to markets, land degradation); stimulation of private sector involvement in livestock and crop production, markets and associated input services. This would halt natural resource degradation and stabilize and improve livelihoods, both in terms of long term trends and short term vulnerability.

3. Aridity indexTravel time

4. Forage deviation

5. Crop Livestock Integration Poor: variable productivity of crops - diseases Limited Land and water resources Poor market integration - low producer prices Farmers have access to capital: Financial services to ensure access to quality inputs Enhance access and uptake of inputs -seed -- fertilizers Enhance diversity of crops: forage Farmers Implement sustainable agronomic: land use practices, rotation, irrigation, soil fertility, erosion Farmers fetch better prices for their crops Enhance access to Capital: Financial services to ensure access to quality inputs Improved technologies and inputs Accessible: utilization of knowledge information Farmers have access to real time crop prices Improved (warehousing) Storage capacity: effectiveness

6. Meso: The ability of integrated crop-livestock systems to reduce vulnerability is constrained by poor and variable crop productivity, limited access to land and water resources, and poor market integration and producer prices. Micro: Crop yields in integrated crop-livestock systems can be improved through enhanced access to financial services, increased availability of high quality inputs and diverse crop varieties, and the implementation of sustainable agronomic and land-use practices. Micro: Improved market integration and increased producer prices for poor households can be achieved through enhanced access to real time and long term crop pricing information, and enhanced warehousing and storage capacity and effectiveness. Crop-livestock Integration

7. Insufficient access to market infrastructure and exports Limited capacity of markets to absorb large volumes of stock during droughts Insufficient price information Lack of financial services Poor and Variable prices for Livestock Small herd sizes Improved Access to Markets - proximity Opportunity created for export market Enhanced access to and use of information on spatial temporal dynamics of prices Access to enhanced credit, savings, insurance, futures Access to consistent high quality forage Access to quality breed Roads market (physical) infrastructure Drought off-take policy implemented Information collection: dissemination system Pastoral sensitive financial products Forage banking landuse planning Creation of disease free zone Market Engagement Establishment Livestock producer association Establishment of Vet services Establishment Community livestock breeding program

8. Meso: Access to markets (proximity), information on prices, access to financial services, higher producer prices, and larger (sufficient) herd sizes would enhance pastoral engagement in markets. Micro: Increased producer prices at market can be achieved through improved animal heath, enhanced access to consistent high quality forage, access to high quality high value breeds, and real time information on market prices. Micro: Increased access to “pastoral friendly” financial services and effective livestock producer associations leads to increased market engagement. Micro: Herd size (economies of scale?) limits pastoral involvement in markets. OR Increasing herd sizes beyond a minimum threshold would enable poor pastoralists to more effectively engage in market activities. Market Engagement