STEPs Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research Gothenburg, Sweden, 15 June 2006 Thérèse Steenberghen Spatial Applications Division/K.U.Leuven Conclusions and discussion statements

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Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 3 Key issues Uncertainties in transport system: –Adaptation of new technologies? –Autonomy and security of energy supply? Potential effects on: –mobility patterns? –land use? –transport infrastructure? Based on: –forecasts –modelling

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 4 Effects on environmental, economic, technical and industrial viability What is crucial for policy makers? Further research needs?

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Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 6 Technological development and policies 2 time horizons Until 2010: –policies should be centred to slow down growth oil use and CO2 emission –several promising alternatives with hybrids paving the way for fully electric vehicles After 2010: –more far-reaching technology: near-zero CO2 in urban areas, relatively lower dependence on oil –potential for fuel cells, depending on development of hydrogen generation technology

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 7 Developments in alternatives to fossil fuels Shift: mild demand driven context more severe oil supply driven context Current trends and perspectives are insufficient in light of needed structural changes

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 8 Major driving forces of trends Mother of all trends = technological progress Consequences : »Growing affluence »Global inequality »Energy shortage »Global climate change

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 9 demand (freight and passenger) fuel efficiency (freight and passenger) efficiency in use of vehicles intermodality, different modal split more efficient travel demand management Trend to ever more mobility and energy consumption is not sustainable Global trends

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Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 11 Compiling the STEPs scenarios Complicated and technical task! Synthesis of scenarios into dimensions, specified in subsystems –socio-economic and cultural system –spatial system –passenger transport system –freight transport system –transport energy system Many indicators translated in output variables

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 12 Definition of scenarios took form along two main dimensions 1Availability of energy resources –accepted energy supply forecast (low oil price growth) –worst-case energy supply forecast (high oil price growth) –extreme energy supply forecast (extreme growth) 2Policies in transport and energy use –no policies at all –business as usual –demand regulation –technology investments –integrated policies

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 13 No policies Business as usual Demand Regulation Technology investments Integrated policies Low oil price growth A-1A0A1A2A3 High oil price growth B-1B0B1B2B3 Extreme fuel price growth C-1C0C1C2C3 Main STEPs modelling scenarios Additional modelling scenarios Reference scenario

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Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 15 Models and modelling philosophy Three European models –POLES, ASTRA, SASI Five regional models –Edinburgh, Dortmund, Helsinki, South Tyrol, Brussels All models already established and applied at their scale Models used as input also intermediate results of other models, e.g. fuel price

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 16 Note: to be taken into account Differences among the models characteristics Differences among the five regional areas Complexity of the scenarios Unambiguous interpretation of scenarios extremely difficult Later stage: meta analysis

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 17 Scenario impacts, model results Results vary according to regional variations as well as scenarios All scenarios predict increases in GDP All scenarios, including business as usual, deliver significant local air quality improvements. Business as usual and Technology investment scenarios give at best small CO2 reductions (compared with 2005) except under energy scarcity scenarios

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 18 Scenario impacts, model results (2) Unless backed up by policy interventions (demand management scenarios), technology investment appears to perpetuate –current urban expansion –socio-economic trends Demand management scenario gives –10-20% CO2 reduction –or >20% in the energy scarcity scenario Higher fuel prices and levels of policy intervention lead to a trend of reducing accessibility Technology investment and demand regulation work against each other in terms of social cohesion

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 19 Modelling results demonstrate three key issues Scarcity of oil will accelerate development and take up of alternative fuel technologies Investment in alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of local emissions and reduce unitary energy consumption, but will only reduce yearly CO2 emissions after about 15 years some form of regulation of demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion

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Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 21 Higher fuel prices will have a significant effect on trip distances and modal choice. Reductions in car distance will significantly reduce: –air pollution, –greenhouse gas emissions, –traffic accidents and traffic deaths. Reductions in car use will have negative effects on accessibility. Reasonable agreement about the major behavioural responses and environmental effects

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Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 23 EU Common Transport Policy (CTP) has two basic goals: efficient, accessible and competitive transport systems – essential to growth and employment and to keep EU businesses competitive – and a high level of safety and environmental protection Despite an apparent degree of heterogeneity among the different models used in STEPS, there are some important findings applicable to all of them; in relation to the above.

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 24 Energy and environmental criteria improve when –fuel price increases –technology investment and demand regulation measures are implemented, in all the models considered. Demand regulation measures have shown to be more effective than technology investments in terms of energy consumption and environment criteria

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 25 The predicted effect in social criteria is not as straightforward –In general terms, safety indicators improve in all scenarios, whereas spatial equity indicators show varying effects, depending on the model considered However, both fuel price increases and modelled policies result in higher transport costs, mobility constrains and reduced accessibility –which unavoidable lead to reduced GDP and employment growth rates: deterioration of competitiveness criteria.

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 26 The trade-off between energy, environment and social criteria, and competitiveness criteria, is a key factor in the design of any integrated Energy and Transport Policy The STEPs results provide the decision-maker with consistent and reliable information on the predicted effect of different sets of policy measures. With this information, it is his/her duty to select the more appropriate strategy.

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 27 What can we conclude that is crucial for policy makers? Both fuel price increases and (demand regulation) policy measures result in higher transport costs, mobility constrains and reduced accessibility deterioration of competitiveness Measures are needed to counteract effects of fuel price increase, mainly due to the trends in fossil energy use Demand regulation measures are best accompanied by measures to improve competitiveness

Gothenburg, 15 June 2006Slide 28 Research needs Forecasting energy price increases seems to be more difficult than forecasting their effects. Research should therefore address the issue of market responses to energy price shocks. The predicted effect in social criteria is not straightforward. Spatial equity indicators show varying effects, depending on the model considered. Need for research on relation between transport and spatial equity.

STEPs Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research Gothenburg, Sweden, 15 June 2006 STEPs Project – Scenarios for Transport and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Thank you