1. STEPs Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research Bratislava, Slovak Republic 3rd of March 2006 STEPs Project – Scenarios for Transport and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects 2nd Soundboard Forum Meeting

2. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 2 Agenda 11.00Opening and welcome 11.15Short project introduction: overview and current progress 11.30The STEPs modelling results and their significance (led by TRT) 13.00Lunch 14.30Dealing with the outcomes: Evaluation and assessment of completed scenarios (led by UPM-TRANSYT) 16.30Closure

3. STEPs Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1A Thematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10 Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research Adriaan Nuijten – Buck Consultants International STEPs Project Co-ordinator STEPs Project – Scenarios for Transport and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Overview & Current Progress

4. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 4 Contents 1Short introduction in the project and the partners 2Current state of affairs 3The target of todays meeting

5. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 5 1Short introduction STEPs: Scenarios for the Transport system and Energy supply and their Potential effectsSTEPs: Scenarios for the Transport system and Energy supply and their Potential effects Funded by EC Directorate-General ResearchFunded by EC Directorate-General Research –Sixth Framework Programme Research and Technological development (FP6) –Sustainable Surface Transport Priority Communication Action, combiningCommunication Action, combining –primary research –dissemination and communication activities

6. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 6 Introduction (2) partnernature/parent org.country AUEB-RC/TRANSLOGUniversity of AthensGreece BCIPrivate consultancyThe Netherlands ITSUniversity of LeedsUK JRC-IPTSEU Joint Research CentreEU KUL-SADLUniversity of LeuvenBelgium S&WPrivate consultancyGermany SenterNovemNational agencyThe Netherlands StratecPrivate consultancyBelgium TIS.ptPrivate consultancyPortugal TRLPrivate consultancyUK TRTPrivate consultancyItaly TTRPrivate consultancyUK UPM-TRANSYTUniversity of MadridSpain WSP-LTPrivate consultancyFinland

7. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 7 Introduction (3) STEPs objectives To develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and energy supplyTo develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and energy supply To assess and evaluate the impacts of the scenariosTo assess and evaluate the impacts of the scenarios To use these results to assist in future decisions in the field of land use, transport and energy supplyTo use these results to assist in future decisions in the field of land use, transport and energy supply

8. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 8 Introduction (4) STEPs will attempt to answer questions such as What are maximum achievements toward substitution of fossil fuels, in terms of:What are maximum achievements toward substitution of fossil fuels, in terms of: –energy consumption by energy type –greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) –share of fossil and renewable energy Which measures have to be taken to achieve the targets?Which measures have to be taken to achieve the targets? What are the transport impacts of the scenarios on mobility patterns at European, national and local level and their secondary effects?What are the transport impacts of the scenarios on mobility patterns at European, national and local level and their secondary effects? What will be non-transport impacts?What will be non-transport impacts?

9. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 9 Introduction (5) Project Phases and Workpackages: Research work Phase 1: Baseline Research (WPs 1 and 2)Phase 1: Baseline Research (WPs 1 and 2) Phase 2: Scenario Definition (WP 3)Phase 2: Scenario Definition (WP 3) Phase 3: Modelling (WP 4)Phase 3: Modelling (WP 4) Phase 4: Assessing Model Results (WP 5)Phase 4: Assessing Model Results (WP 5) Phase 5: Final Reporting including Conclusions and recommendations (WP 6)Phase 5: Final Reporting including Conclusions and recommendations (WP 6)

10. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 10 Introduction (6) Co-ordination tasks Clustering Meetings (interaction, dissemination) (WP8)Clustering Meetings (interaction, dissemination) (WP8) Soundboard Forums (research process, contents) (WP7)Soundboard Forums (research process, contents) (WP7) Dissemination of results (conferences, brochures, website etc.) (WP9)Dissemination of results (conferences, brochures, website etc.) (WP9)

11. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 11

12. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 12 Introduction (6) Outcomes Phase One: Baseline Research A review of the current state-of-the-art in transport and energy supply Development of a conceptual framework for the effects of the broader socio-economic and technological environment on the use of energy by transport

13. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 13 Introduction (7) Outcomes Phase Two: Scenario Definition Scenarios were defined in two dimensions: Energy AvailabilityEnergy Availability –including fuel price growth Policy DimensionPolicy Dimension –what policies to adopt to tackle the challenges of the coming 25 years

14. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 14 Introduction (8) Scenario definition Policy dimension split into 4 policy packages:Policy dimension split into 4 policy packages: –No policy intervention (i.e. leave to free market) –Business as Usual –Technology Investment –Demand Regulation Energy Availability follows 2 options:Energy Availability follows 2 options: –Unrestricted Energy Supply –Energy Scarcity

15. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 15 No policies, just fuel price Business as usual Demand Regulation Technology invest- ments Mix of Measure- ments Unrestricted energy supply A-1A0A1A2A3 Energy scarcity B-1B0B1B2B3 Pro-active policy behaviour C-1C0C1C2C3 Scenario coherence Yellow:simulated by all models Blue:simulated by selected models

16. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 16 Introduction (9) Phase three: Modelling Aim: to use existing models to assess the impacts of the scenarios at two spatial levels:Aim: to use existing models to assess the impacts of the scenarios at two spatial levels: –3 European models –5 regional contexts Existing models used because:Existing models used because: –Results can be viewed in comparison with other modelling exercises –Allowed a wider range of contexts to be considered rather than spending resources on development of new models

17. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 17 Introduction (10) European models:European models: –POLES –SASI –ASTRA Regional models:Regional models: –Edinburgh –Dortmund –Helsinki –Brussels –South Tyrol

18. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 18 2Current state of affairs Modelling work (WP4) finalisedModelling work (WP4) finalised –Main integral result document (Deliverable 4.2) has been e-mailed to you Evaluation and assessment of scenarios (WP 5) in progressEvaluation and assessment of scenarios (WP 5) in progress Final reporting to be started soonFinal reporting to be started soon Final conference (Gothenburg, 15 June) in preparationFinal conference (Gothenburg, 15 June) in preparation

19. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 19 3The targets of todays meeting In general… feeding the STEPs research project with critical questions, remarks and commentsfeeding the STEPs research project with critical questions, remarks and comments This SBF-meeting in specific: Reactions on model outcomesReactions on model outcomes Reactions on impact assessment phase (WP5)Reactions on impact assessment phase (WP5)

20. Adriaan Nuijten Bratislava, March 2006Slide 20 To be presented in detail / discussed… Model outcomes: scenario impacts (WP 4)Model outcomes: scenario impacts (WP 4) –Mr Angelo Martino / Davide Fiorello (TRT) Evaluation and assessment (WP5)Evaluation and assessment (WP5) –Prof. Andrés Monzón (UPM-TRANSYT)