Energy transition European Raw Materials in the 2020s MIREU workshop, Rovaniemi 9.5.2018 Eero Yrjö-Koskinen, Finnish Network for Sustainable Mining European Raw Materials in the 2020s Background material to the seminar organized in Helsinki on 15 October by the Finnish Network for Sustainable Mining

Paris Agreement vs. reality In 2015, nearly 200 nations agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius UNEP: current pledges will cause temperatures rise by 3,4 degrees above pre- industrial levels by the end of this century All future activities should concentrate on reducing CO2 emissions

Challenges of energy transition in USA Looking in detail at the right side of the chart, the end-use of energy that provides the services we desire. Gasoline at somewhat less than 1/4th (people) Diesel provides additional mobility (for stuff), but also runs the ag sector and heats homes in the northeast Very little coal is used directly (98% to power), but only half the natural gas is used for power, the rest for industry and buildings Electricity is 21% of the total, and only a few percent is solar/wind/geothermal; that means that even if we achieve a 100% renewable electricity grid, we still have 79% of our daily energy use that is fossil fuels, and alternatives will need to be found for all that Sources: David Fridley, Post Carbon Institute; IEA Energy Balances; U.S. EIA

Challenges of energy transition in China US is not the largest energy system in the world, so useful to look at the largest and most challenging one—China. China consumes 40% more energy than the US, and emits nearly twice as much CO2 because its energy system is so heavily coal-based. Notable differences with the US: Gasoline is just a small fraction (smaller fleet, more efficient vehicles), while diesel is more important (moving freight and coal) Coal and coal derivatives still account for half of total final energy use, mainly in industry, compared to just 1.5% of the total in the US Electricity is 19% of the total, 75% coal based, but largest hydro generation in the world. They are a solar/wind leader, but it remains a small fraction of the total Same story: fully decarbonizing the power sector still leaves 80% fossil fuels Sources: David Fridley, Post Carbon Institute; IEA Energy Balances; U.S. EIA

Energy transition in Europe 72% of EU’s energy consumption was based on oil, gas and coal in 2016 => this should be brought down to zero by 2050 if we are to comply with the Paris Agreement The technological conversion in the next 25 years is comparable to the industrial revolution from the end of the 19th century to the beginning of the 20th century

Concerns related to increased raw materials demand China’s dominating role in global commodities: 54% of world aluminum, 50% nickel, 48% copper, 46% zinc, 46% tin, 45% steel and 40% lead How to secure social, environmental and climate impacts of increasing extractive activities? Should we promote domestic production or outsource these activities to third countries? Role of recycling and deep-sea mining General perception of raw materials demand is still missing

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Thank you! Eero Yrjö-Koskinen Finnish Network for Sustainable Mining Tel: +358 50 347 8778 E-mail: eyk@kaivosvastuu.fi Thank you!