Item 4.1: Annual labour market flows MEETING OF THE EUROPEAN DIRECTORS OF SOCIAL STATISTICS LUXEMBOURG, 27-28 JUNE 2019

Transitions from the EU-LFS – adding annual flows data to the offer EU-LFS: existing high quality data source with large samples Purpose of the project: exploit the longitudinal component of the EU-LFS Ensure coherence between information on stocks and transitions for policy purposes: now, EU-SILC provides transition estimates for the labour market

Experience with quarter-on-quarter transitions Published since 2015 based on TF recommendations (and LAMAS WG approval) Addition of model-based breakdowns in 2017 High demand for this data; downloaded more often from website than most other quarterly indicators High and persistent user demand for year-on-year transitions to complement data offer

Data requests for year-on-year transitions DG EMPL: replace EU-SILC based policy indicators (JAF, European pillar of social rights); large interest in breakdowns for analysis Flash Estimates of Income and Poverty Indicators: potential input WHO/ILO: several requests for modelling inputs Several users wait for EU and EA aggregates

Work of TF Labour Market Flows meeting on 27/28 February 2019 Goal of TF: build on the method currently used for quarter-on-quarter flows to allow estimation of year-on-year flows Eurostat prepared an overview of methodological issues, with a focus on Flows in and out of scope of the longitudinal sample Size and type of attrition

Flows in and out of scope Individuals moving in or out of the country Individuals dying Individuals turning 15, or turning 75  overall effect adds up to population changes in the age group 15-74 between initial period and target period  less than 1.5% population change in 85% of cases

Full transition matrix

Attrition Attrition= difference between individuals expected in the longitudinal sample based on wave and rotational pattern and actually observed individuals At Eurostat, impossible to differentiate between those moving out of scope, those moving nationally, those who cannot be contacted, and those who refuse to answer  unclear whether attrition bias exists, and if it influences flow estimates (or stock estimates!!)

Annual flows – attrition (2016-2017)

TF recommendations I Do NOT account for population changes for first publication information on the labour market status of movers and those who die is not available unlikely to have an impact in majority of cases consistency between stocks and flows will remain intact! Eurostat will test a simple accounting approach for comparison in the future

TF recommendations II Reweighting of longitudinal sample to match labour market status margins by 10-year age groups and sex (target period) No further correction, as excessive reweighting as well as imputations would be based on very strong assumptions for which there is no basis Eurostat will test selected additional variables in the reweighting step for comparison

Transitions in Labour Market Status in the EU28 (in % of initial status; population aged 15-74) 2018   employment unemployment inactivity 2017 93.6% 1.9% 4.5% 32.9% 42.6% 24.5% 7.6% 3.7% 88.6%

Transition from unemployment to employment 2017-2018 vs Transition from unemployment to employment 2017-2018 vs. unemployment rate 2017

Next steps 1st step: publish annual flows based on the method recommended by the Task Force 2nd step: test alternative approaches for comparison Long term: Discuss the future of longitudinal data from the EU-LFS Harmonization of rotational patterns and collection modes Longitudinal weights derived by countries

1st step: Publication and communication strategy Data publication accompanied by a press release, a Statistics Explained article and a methodological note Country estimates, if published nationally, can be included should this be deemed important

The DSS members are invited to comment on the recommendations of the TF Labour Market Flows, and to express their views on the planned publication strategy, as well as the future next steps.