1. Flash estimates on income distribution dynamics
Workshop on best practices for EU-SILC revision,
Paris 10th December 2015
Eurostat

2. Overall framework

3. Income component approach

4. Overview Update labour and demographics Uprating/
Income component approach
Overview
Update labour and demographics
Reweight (LFS)
Model transitions (LFS)
use collected transitions in SILC
Update income components
National accounts
Microsimulation
( Euromod)
Microsimulation (MSs), SILC wage...
Uprating/
adjustements
HICP, LCI, macro-indicators...
Current income
No of recipients and level of different income components. These are then recomposed in an
The quadrants in each column are not necessarily mutually exclusive, a combination
National accounts uprating factors
Microsimulation in euromod for implementing policies and taxes

5. - Objective for the European Semester FE income N in June N+1
Income component approach
- Objective for the European Semester
FE income N in June N+1
- FE and timeliness
multi-year lag
2-year lag
1-year lag
FE 2014
FE 2015
SILC 2012 (INC 2011)
FE 2013
SILC 2013 (INC 2012)
FE 2014
SILC 2014 (INC 2013)
FE 2015
SILC 2012 (INC 2011)
FE 2013
SILC 2014 (INC 2013)
FE 2014
SILC 2015 (INC 2014)
FE 2015
SILC 2013 (INC 2012)
FE 2013

6. - Auxiliary sources: - Methodology LFS for labour/demographics changes
Income component approach
- Auxiliary sources:
LFS for labour/demographics changes
EUROMOD for social benefits and taxes
Update for other income components: NA
Other national sources?
- Methodology
Consistency issues:
labour for SILC-LFS;
property and self-employment income not in line with NA
Reweighting/modelling
Euromod and national simulation models
Correct for "model error"

7. Parametric Estimation of the Income Distribution

8. Empirical income distribution

9. Fitting a Generalized Beta Distribution of the Second Kind (GB2) using the GB2 R package (Graf & Nedyalkova)

10. GB2 parameters
a: shape
b: central value
p, q: tails

11. Parameter nowcasting
(1) Clear and strong trend, no correlation with macro variables  trend extrapolation
(2) No clear trend, strong correlation with macro variables  econometric modeling, using observed macro data

12. GB2 parameters  Monetary Laeken Indicatorsq
at-risk-of poverty threshold
at-risk-of-poverty rate
relative median at-risk-of-poverty gap
income quintile share ratio
+ Gini coefficient
using the GB2 package

13. Current income approach

14. Current income approach
16 MS collect information in 2014/2015:
- Eurostat level: centralised analysis of methods and results
- National level:
5 countries- grants for flash estimates based on current income (to be finished October 2016)
Call for proposals for further actions (1st half 2016)

15. Timeline
2016
Produce FE 2015: by June 2016 joint delivery of Eurostat & Euromod (EU-SILC 2012 (inc 2011) & 2014 (inc 2013)
Tests the parametric approach & current income
Call for proposals
TF on Flash Estimates

16. Timeline
2017
Publish FE 2016: by June 2017 joint delivery of Eurostat & Euromod ((EU-SILC 2015 (inc 2014))
2020
Publish FE 2019: by June 2020 joint delivery of Eurostat & Euromod (EU-SILC 2019 (inc 2018))