Risk Assessment Ali Ardalan MD, PhD Assistant Professor Tehran University of Medical Sciences Institute of Public Health Research Health Emergency & Disaster Department (HE&DD) Risk Assessment Ali Ardalan MD, PhD Assistant Professor

Risk Assessment Risk identification Hazard assessment Vulnerability assessment Risk analysis Risk evaluation

Hazard Assessment Is concerned with the properties of the hazards or threats To understand the nature and behavior of hazards we need to identify:

Hazard Assessment Tools Hazard Matrix: Helps us to systematize information regarding the properties of the community’s hazard exposure Hazard Map: Drawn to locate the probable area covered by a hazard’s impact and the elements at risk. Historical Profile or time line: Can make us understand how hazards have changed over time; which hazards have happened in the past; or the start of particular hazard occurrence. Seasonal Calendar: visualizes the time, frequency and duration of common hazards.

Hazard Matrix Earthquake Flood Fire Epidemic .... Duration When Frequency Speed of onset Forewarning Warning sign Force Hazard Type Earthquake Flood Fire Epidemic ....

Flood magnitude= Log (Duration*Severity*Affected area) In mathematics, the logarithm of a number to a given base is the power or exponent to which the base must be raised in order to produce the number. For example, the logarithm of 1000 to the base 10 is 3, because 10 raised to the power of 3 is 1000; the base 2 logarithm of 32 is 5 because 2 to the power 5 is 32. The logarithm of x to the base b is written logb(x) or, if the base is implicit, as log(x). So, for a number x, a base b and an exponent y, An important feature of logarithms is that they reduce multiplication to addition, by the formula:

Some Points on Hazard Assessment Secondary hazards Consider the various intensities Not forget to look at possible disaster threats that are new for the community and are likely to happen The rare the occurrence, the less historical information

Vulnerability Assessment Process of estimating the susceptibility of ‘elements at risk’ to various hazards and analyzing the causes behind their vulnerability. VA into account the below factors: Structural Non-structural Process/Functional Physical Geographical Economic Social Political Psychological

Vulnerability Assessment Tools Vulnerability Maps: Helps in visualizing the ‘elements at risk’ Transect walk: Helps to get a better understanding of the community map and affords opportunity to ask more questions on physical/material vulnerability Seasonal calendar Gives insight on periods of stress, diseases, hunger, debt, etc. Livelihood analysis: Gives a picture of the varying effects of hazards on different households and groups

Vulnerability Assessment Tools Venn diagram: Shows the state of coordination among organizations and government agencies or leadership patterns Community Drama: Enables people to express what happens during disasters and why Problem tree and Ranking: Shows linkage of vulnerabilities and enables the community to express the priority vulnerabilities to address.

Vulnerability Indicator Coordination / emergency plan Vulnerability Matrix Hazard Scenario 1 Very High High Medium Low Very Low Vulnerability Indicator Structural Non-structural Land use planning Coordination / emergency plan Fire extingusher

Vulnerability Indicator Vulnerability Matrix Hazard Scenario 1 Score Very High (5) High (4) Medium (3) Low (2) Very Low (1) Vulnerability Indicator Indicator 1 Indicator 2 Indicator 3 Indicator 4 Total Develop the relevant vulnerability indicators for each specific hazard

Vulnerability Indicator Vulnerability Matrix Hazard Scenario 1 Score Very High (5) High (4) Medium (3) Low (2) Very Low (1) Vulnerability Indicator Indicator 1 Indicator 2 Indicator 3 Indicator 4 Total (#Indicators * Max Score Level) / #Categories Ex: (4 * 5) / 5 = 4 4 8 12 16 20

Vulnerability Indicator Vulnerability Matrix Hazard Scenario 1 Score Very High (5) High (4) Medium (3) Low (2) Very Low (1) Vulnerability Indicator 3 * Indicator 1 2 Indicator 2 5 Indicator 3 4 Indicator 4 14 14 4 8 12 16 20 Vulnerability level: High

Risk Analysis To understand the potential impact of various hazard events Development of risk scenarios based upon information about: Hazards (Frequency & Intensity) Elements-at-risk A hazard can impact many elements at risk in different manners

Risk Matrix Risk Scenario 1 Hazard Probability Damage Potential Very High High Medium Low Very Low LR VLR MR HR VHR

Hospital Risk Assessment for Earthquake, Scenario 1 Damage Potential Hazard Probability Hospital H M H1 VH H2 H3 L H4

Risk Evaluation Purpose: To make decisions about what strategies should be followed for the reduction of various disaster risks The decision about risk management may include: Whether a risk needs treatment Whether an activity should be undertaken Priorities for treatment Cost-benefit analysis of various options

e-mail: aardalan@gmail.com Office/Fax: +98-21- 88991108 Contact info: e-mail: aardalan@gmail.com Office/Fax: +98-21- 88991108 Mobile: +98- 9123050192 Ali Ardalan MD PhD Assistant Professor, Director Health Emergency & Disaster Department (HE&DD) Institute of Public Health Research Tehran University of Medical Sciences