1. Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation Robert M. Schwartz, Ph.D. Stacy L. Willett, M.A. Associate Professors- Emergency Management Department of Public Service Technology The University of Akron

2. Discussion Topics Definitions and Concepts Overview of Processes  Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk Measurements Hazard Analysis Variations  General  CARVER Method  Iowa Example

3. Hazard Analysis Model Mitigation PreparednessRecovery Response Hazard Analysis Risk Assessment

4. Hazards Embraces a societal threat Natural Anthropogenic Non-Intentional (Technological) Anthropogenic Intentional

5. Profiling Hazards Magnitude Duration Seasonal pattern Speed of onset Availability of warnings

6. Vulnerability Combination of risk and response Lack of ability to respond or lack of response can increase vulnerability Well-thought out plans aiding all segments of society can reduce vulnerability

7. Determine Vulnerability Risk: predicted impact a hazard would have on people, services, and specific facilities in the community Quantifying risk Surveying risk

8. Risk Combination of: 1. Probability that an event will occur 2. Consequences of its occurrence Risk= probability of occurrence x vulnerability DHS Formula: terrorism Risk=Asset Value x Threat Rating x Vulnerability Rating

9. Quantifying Risk Identify elements of the community potentially at risk from a specific hazard Develop response priorities Assign severity ratings Compile risk data into community risk profiles

10. Surveying Risk Priority 1: Life Safety Priority 2: Essential facilities Priority 3: Critical infrastructure

11. Prioritizing Risks Assign each hazard a severity rating or risk index Predicts expected damage from hazard Quantifies expected impact of hazard on people, essential facilities, property, and response assets

12. Asset-Based and Geographically Based Risk Analysis Asset Based:  Threat: adversary’s intent to attack specific target and capability to execute attack  Vulnerability: vulnerability of specific asset to specific type of attack Consequences: results from loss of particular type of asset given specific type of attack Geographically Based: Threat: linked to particular geographic area Vulnerability: intrinsic vulnerabilities of an area to attack related to geography or other attributes Consequences: broad consequences to area’s population or economy following an attack

13. Hazard Analysis Identifies:  Incidence of particular hazards  Severity of hazards  Probability of reoccurrence Examines full range of hazards  Natural  Anthropogenic Non-Intentional (Technological)  Anthropogenic Intentional (Civil/Political)

14. Additional Considerations in Hazard Assessment Other conditions may increase the estimated severity of a hazard  Population density  Sheltering facilities  Special populations  Seasonal business  Cultural differences (such as language barriers)

15. HA: Used to Lessen Critical Facility Impact First of four phases  Is it? Impact is reduced, deflected or avoided Recognizing hazards and impacts Protect facilities and service delivery  What are some critical facilities? Does their placement conflict with the hazard assessment data? Should inform placement!

16. Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis What can occur Recurrence interval Potential damage Impacts to the community Vulnerability of community to specific hazard

17. Hazard Analysis/Risk Assessment Determine Vulnerability Identify Hazards Apply Scenarios Develop Environment/ Community Profile Hazards Risk assessment involves researching the hazards that threaten the community and ranking them according to the risks they pose and the areas and infrastructure that are vulnerable to damage from an event involving the hazards. The outcome is a written hazard analysis that quantifies the overall risk to the community from each hazard. List of Hazards Magnitude Frequency Geographic extent Duration Seasonal patterns Speed of onset Geography Assets Property Infrastructure Demographics Response Organizations Quantify Risk Set Response Priorities Assign Severity Index Prioritize Risks Initial warning Potential total impact Sector specific impacts Overall consequences Response actions and resources needed

18. Severity Ratings SeverityCharacteristics Catastrophic Multiple deaths.Multiple deaths. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for 30 days or more.Complete shutdown of critical facilities for 30 days or more. More than 50 percent of property severely damaged.More than 50 percent of property severely damaged. Critical Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability.Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least 2 weeks.Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least 2 weeks. More than 25 percent of property is severely damaged.More than 25 percent of property is severely damaged. Limited Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability.Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability. Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than 1 week.Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than 1 week. More than 10 percent of property is severely damaged.More than 10 percent of property is severely damaged. Negligible Injuries and/or illness treatable with first aid.Injuries and/or illness treatable with first aid. Minor quality of life lost.Minor quality of life lost. Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less.Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less. Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged.Less than 10 percent of property severely damaged.

19. Characteristic Severity Magnitude 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Frequency of Occurrence 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Speed of Onset 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Community Impact 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Special Characteristics 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Total Risk 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Hazard:___________________

20. Characteristic Severity Magnitude 1 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Frequency of Occurrence 2 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Speed of Onset 3 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Community Impact 3 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Special Characteristics 3 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Total Risk 12 / 2.4 12 / 2.4 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Hazard: Tornado

21. Characteristic Severity Magnitude 1 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Frequency of Occurrence 4 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Speed of Onset 3 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Community Impact 2 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Special Characteristics 2 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Total Risk 12 / 2.4 12 / 2.4 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Hazard Example: Terrorism

22. Characteristic Severity Magnitude 2 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Frequency of Occurrence 2 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Speed of Onset 1 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Community Impact 3 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Special Characteristics 2 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Total Risk 10 / 2 10 / 2 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Hazard Example: Structure Fire

23. Characteristic Severity Magnitude 2 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Frequency of Occurrence 4 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Speed of Onset 3 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Community Impact 2 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Special Characteristics 3 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Total Risk 14 / 2.8 14 / 2.8 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible Hazard Example: Radiological Incident

24. Prioritized Results Tornado2.4 Terrorism 2.4 Radiological Incident 2.8 Structure Fire2.0 1.Catastrophic 2.Critical 3.Limited 4.Negligible

25. Example of Risk Overview Low Medium High Probability of Occurrence Severity of Consequences Little concern Moderate Concern Major Concern Immediate and Severe Concern Chemical Spill Flood Nuclear Plant Pandemic Tornado Lightning Earthquake

26. Scenarios Helps to identify situations that may exist in a disaster Used to help ensure preparedness if hazard occurs

27. Scenario Composition Initial warning Potential overall impact Potential impact on specific sectors Potential consequences (damage, casualties, loss of services) Action and resources necessary

28. FEMA Emergency Planning (IS-235) Unit Three

29. General HA Example : Hazard Rating Table HazardLikelihoodPotential Impact on Population Potential Impact on Property EOP coverage 0 = None 1 = Rare 2 = Occasional 3 = Frequent 0 = None 1 = Limited 2 = Substantial 3 = Major 0 = None 1 = Limited 2 = Substantial 3 = Major 0 = None 1 = Limited 2 = Substantial 3 = Full Flood1133 Tornado 1333

30. HAZUS Hazard loss estimating software Floods, earthquakes, hurricanes Physical damage Economic loss Social impacts

31. CARVER + Shock Software Adapted from military version (CARVER) Used to assess vulnerabilities or infrastructure within a system to attack Manufacturing and Agricultural versions Available from FDA

32. CARVER + Shock Assessment Six attributes to evaluate potential of target Criticality: measure of public health and economic impacts of attack Accessibility: ability to physically access and egress target Recuperability: ease of system to recover Vulnerability: ease of accomplishing attack Effect: amount of direct loss from attack measured by production loss Recognizability: ease of identifying target

33. Shock Combined health, economic, and psychological impacts of attack Potential impacts (even national) Psychological impacts increased if historical, cultural, religious, or symbolic significance Impacts increased if victims “sensitive” populations such as children or elderly Economic damage such as lower economic activity, higher unemployment

34. CARVER + Shock Rankings Lower vulnerability (1-2) Higher vulnerability (9-10) Evaluate each attribute “Interview” and process flow diagram method Total scores range from 7-70 User can determine most vulnerable parts of infrastructure and prioritize most susceptible areas

35. Iowa Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment Multi-step process Identify hazards Community profile Profile hazard events Cascading event (secondary hazards) Prioritize hazards

36. Iowa HA Model : Measure Criticality and Vulnerability Separately Criticality ElementsSub-element Element Subtotal Mass Casualty RiskEffect (1-5)XSeverity (1-5)1-25 Emergency Response FunctionTime loss (1-5)XJurisdiction Population (1-5)1-25 Economic ImpactScope (1-5)XImpact (1-5)1-25 Key Military InstallationsTime loss (1-5)XFacility Function (1-5)1-25 Critical InfrastructureTime loss (1-5)XPopulation Impacted (1-5)1-25 Continuity of GovernmentTime loss (1-5)XPopulation Impacted (1-5)1-25 Symbolic AssetTime loss (1-5)XLevel of recognition (1-5)1-25 Criticality Subtotal (x)7-175 The criticality assessment is a process designed to systematically identify and evaluate important systems and infrastructure as it relates to the factors in the table below. Each of the sub-elements is given a score based on a scale of 1 through 5 dependent upon specific criteria. The criticality subtotal is converted to a percentage and then graphed along the X-axis of a coordinate system.

37. Iowa Model: Vulnerability Calculation The vulnerability assessment is a process designed to systematically identify and evaluate important systems and infrastructure as it relates to the factors in the table below. The process identifies exposures in physical structures, personnel protection systems, and production processes. Each of the sub-elements is given a score based on a scale of 1 through 5 dependent upon specific criteria. The vulnerability subtotal is converted to a percentage and then graphed along the Y-axis of a coordinate system. Vulnerability ElementsSub-element Element Subtotal Visibility and AttendanceLevel of recognition (1-5)XAttendance (1-5)1-25 Access to the AssetAccess Proximity (1-5)XSecurity Level (1-5)1-25 Site Specific HazardsReceptor Impacts (1-5)XVolume (1-5)1-25 Vulnerability Subtotal (y)3-75

38. Chart (X=Criticality, Y= Vulnerability) Quadrant IV High Vulnerability & Low Criticality Quadrant I High Criticality & High Vulnerability Quadrant III Low Vulnerability & Low Criticality Quadrant II High Criticality & Low Vulnerability Asset Score = [Criticality, Vulnerability] = [((x/175)*100), ((y/75)*100)] = [X, Y] Vulnerability (Y) Criticality (X)

39. Conclusion While Hazard Analysis is a general concept, it is flexible in complexity and measurements There are many variations of hazard analysis depending on the c0mmunity focus Hazard Analysis should be conducted annually for resource and preparedness assessment

40. Sources FEMA IS-235: http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/downloads/IS235.pdf http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/downloads/IS235.pdf HAZUS: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_training.shtm http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_training.shtm CARVER+Shock: http://www.fda.gov/Food/FoodDefense/CARVER/default.ht m http://www.fda.gov/Food/FoodDefense/CARVER/default.ht m Iowa Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment: http://www.iowahomelandsecurity.org/Partners/CountyCoor dinators/Planning/IowaHazardAnalysisandRiskAssessment/t abid/161/Default.aspx http://www.iowahomelandsecurity.org/Partners/CountyCoor dinators/Planning/IowaHazardAnalysisandRiskAssessment/t abid/161/Default.aspx