Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead interim ^ Developing viability criteria for threatened Puget Sound steelhead Jeff Hard and Jim Myers (for the PSSTRT) Conservation Biology Division NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center Seattle, WA 98112 West Coast Steelhead Management Meeting Redmond, OR 9-11 March 2010

Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria Identifying DIPs & MPGs Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS Run type diversity; residency and anadromy Outlook

Puget Sound steelhead status reviews Originally reviewed in 1996; ESA listing not warranted 2nd status review in response to September 2004 petition completed June 2007 DPS listed as threatened under ESA Several populations continue steep declines despite harvest restrictions Low productivity; poor FW/marine habitat conditions; use of non-local/ derived hatchery stocks; depressed LH diversity

Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria Identifying DIPs & MPGs Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS Run type diversity; residency and anadromy Outlook

East Puget Sound steelhead Tolt SSH Green WSH Abundance QET = 50 QET = 50 P(extinction) Years

General RoE patterns for Puget Sound steelhead Some but not all northern PS populations are at relatively low risk of extinction Populations in central and southern PS (except Green WSH) are generally smaller and most are declining Hood Canal and SJF populations are small and at high risk, although some have been relatively stable Status of many South Sound/Kitsap Peninsula independents and most SSH populations unclear Of concern: Most central and SPS populations, many Hood Canal, all SJF populations

Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria Identifying DIPs & MPGs Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS Run type diversity; residency and anadromy Outlook

Technical Recovery Team (TRT) When a population(s) under NOAA/USFWS jurisdiction is petitioned for listing under ESA, a Biological Review Team (BRT) of federal scientists determines its risk of extinction—the basis for a listing decision Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP; McElhany et al. 2000) criteria: - Abundance, productivity, spatial structure, diversity A TRT develops biological recovery (“viability”) criteria to guide recovery planning for listed unit A TRT has two primary charges: - Identify demographically independent populations (DIPs) and major population groups (MPGs) within the ESU/DPS - Develop viability criteria for these units and the ESU/DPS

Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria Identifying DIPs & MPGs Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS Run type diversity; residency and anadromy Outlook

Demographically Independent Populations & Major Population Groups DIPs < MPGs < DPS Data are usually limiting, and TRTs have had to rely on indirect measures to identify DIPs and MPGs TRTs have typically used simple decision rules to evaluate these factors e.g., spawning populations separated by some amount e.g., elevation/gradient/hydrograph differs substantially between areas Assessment of historical populations a key element of identifying DIPs and MPGs

DIP checklist Tier 1 Historical presence Historical abundance Demographic independence Tier 2 (proxies) Recent abundance Intrinsic potential or other habitat based estimate of potential productivity Basin size/drainage area Geographic isolation Genetic distance Barriers physical seasonal Ecological separation Temporal isolation Tier 3 (species surrogates)

Neighbor-joining tree C-S-E distances 13 μsat loci Includes 2008 and 2009 collections Strait of Juan de Fuca West Hood Canal South/Central Sound North Sound East Hood Canal

Historical WDF steelhead catch data

Dendrogram of Gower SI of habitat characteristics High precip, snow pack (and SSH) Wider, more spawn-able area Rain dominated, generally smaller SJF

How can we combine these data in a way that helps to identify DIPs? Recent demographic independence (PD) Ecophenotypic differences (EP) Ecological distinctiveness (ED) Biological distinctiveness (BD) Population independence (IP) Population dynamics (PD.1) W Migration rates (PD.2) Habitat characteristics (EP.2) Life history traits (EP.1) Genetic distinctiveness (GD) Geographic isolation (GI) Stream gradient, etc. (EP.2.A...) Run timing, etc. (EP.1.A...) Tag recoveries, etc. (PD.2.A...) Adult number, etc. (PD.1.A...) Geographic distance, etc. (GI.1.A...) Genetic distance, etc. (GD.1.A...) (from a concept by K. Currens, NWIFC)

Why a Decision Support System (DSS) framework? “Fuzzy logic” system systematically incorporates degree of uncertainty into decision making Almost any relevant criterion can be considered Employs truth membership functions to evaluate the degree to which propositions are true Uses logical operators (e.g., “AND”, “UNION”, “MEDIAN”, “AVERAGE”) and weighting factors to combine criteria Provides a transparent, systematic, and repeatable framework to reach decisions supported by the available data

A truth membership function “Population will persist = TRUE” “I am completely uncertain whether the population will persist” False Uncertain True Truth value for proposition 1-P(extinction) “Population will persist = FALSE”

Some DSS DIP model inputs Historic populations identified from WDF steelhead catch statistics (1946-1970) and habitat-based intrinsic potential estimates Minimum historic size (e.g., > 500 natural spawners/gen) Minimum suitable habitat (e.g., > 20K m2 IP habitat) Recent demographic data estimated from spawner escapements and selected age structure data (1970s-present) Geographic distances, hydrographic data, and habitat features estimated from GIS data layers Genetic distances based on pairwise FST values from 13 microsatellite loci

Matrix of potential PS steelhead DIPs (Central/South Puget Sound WSH) Lk Washington WSH Green WSH MS Puyallup WSH Nisqually WSH East Kitsap WSH -0.48642 0.132319 0.490463 0.301333 0.164813 0.168309 0.056166 -0.178016 -0.002167 0.1435 DRAFT

Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria Identifying DIPs & MPGs Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS Run type diversity; residency and anadromy Outlook

Puget Sound Chinook salmon ESU viability: All MPGs must be viable MPG viability 2-4 viable populations 1 viable population from each major genetic and life-history group. Suggested population size range Distribution of spawning aggregations Phenotypic and genotypic variation at population level Catastrophe ESU: Overall risk with distribution of pops and life histories in each MPG Pop: % of affected by given catastrophe Historical Abundance SimSam Habitat-based PVA (EDT)

DSS viability criteria: population stratum/MPG entire ESU/DPS PS PF Abundance Hatchery influence PD PP Adult dist’n Juvenile dist’n

Some DSS viability model inputs Abundance and productivity estimated from spawner escapements and available age structure data (1940s-present) Risk of reaching QET estimated with simple PVA models Analysis limited to winter-run fish (WSH) So far, analysis limited to anadromous fish For future: incorporate iteroparity and relative abundance of resident fish as VSP factors

DSS applied to PS steelhead viability: MPG and DPS levels Persistence Functionality Sustainability Sustainability Persistence Diversity MPG MP MD MF MS DS DP Strait of Georgia -0.268 1 -0.036 Whidbey Basin 0.93 -0.029 0.221 Central/South Puget Sound -0.302 0.689 -0.075 -0.805 0.093 Hood Canal -0.340 -0.173 -0.312 Strait of Juan de Fuca -0.316 -0.876 -0.861 DRAFT …………..MPG level………….. …..DPS level…..

Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria Identifying DIPs & MPGs Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS Run type diversity; residency and anadromy Outlook

VSP: Diversity Summer-run life history Historically at least 12 wild SSH populations existed in DPS In 2002 SaSI, 16 SSH populations were identified as extant Most of “unknown” status; only 2 considered “healthy” (Tolt, SF Skykomish [non-native]) 7 are monitored: Canyon Cr., Skagit, Snohomish, Tolt, Stillaguamish, Green, Elwha Estimates of escapement available for only Tolt River SSH in northern Puget Sound

VSP: Diversity residency & anadromy Proportion smolts from resident spawners Marine survival Smolts produced by resident spawners may be critical in supporting steelhead productivity during periods of low marine survival

Outline Status of the Puget Sound steelhead DPS Recent changes Technical Recovery Team (TRT) objectives The TRT’s approach to identifying viability criteria Identifying DIPs & MPGs Assessing viability of DIPs, MPGs, and the DPS Run type diversity; residency and anadromy Outlook

Outlook TRT to identify draft viability criteria for Puget Sound steelhead in 2010 NOAA status review update due in 2010 Recovery planning is underway Additional analyses planned: Genetic samples Finer-scale intrinsic potential estimates Archived abundance and life history data Puget Sound Chinook salmon gap analysis

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Steelhead IP habitat rating metrics   Stream Habitat Rating Matrix (below natural barriers) Stream width (bankfull) 0 - 3 m 3 - 50 m > 50 m Stream gradient 0.0 - 4.0% low high moderate >4.0% Puget Sound Intrinsic Potential (Interior Columbia River parameters) Unconfined Stream Habitat Rating (valley width > 4x bank full width) Stream width 0 - 25 m 25 - 50 m > 50 m Stream gradient 0.0% - 0.5% moderate low 0.5% - 1.5% high 1.5% - 4.0% 4.0% - 7.0% very low / none 7.0% - 15.0% > 15.0% Confined Stream Habitat Rating (valley width < 4x bank full width) Weighted Habitat Area high = 1.0 x Bank full area moderate = 0.5 x Bank full area low = 0.25 x Bank full area very low / none = 0.0 x Bank full area Interior Columbia (for comparison)

Est. mean ‘historic’ wild run size vs unblocked stream length

Spawner capacity estimates Assuming: 7.17 parr/100 m2 0.0265 spnrs/parr (Gibbons et al. 1985)