1. Agenda Item D.1.a
Supplemental NMFS Presentation 2
November 2018
Three Year Review of the Lower Columbia River tule fall Chinook Abundance-based Harvest Matrix
West Coast Region
Jeromy Jording, Sustainable Fisheries Division, Anadromous Harvest Branch

2. Abundance Based Management (ABM) framework
Lower River Hatchery Abundance
Total Exploitation Rate Limit
0 – 30,000
0.30
30,000 – 40,000
0.35
40,000 – 85,000
0.38
>85,000
0.41
West Coast Region
Slide 2: here is the matrix;
2011 the council proposed that we consider its use for ESA consultation standards for salmon fisheries in 2012 and beyond;
opinion adopted the recommendation to review the matrix every three years as a check on projected results and any changes in key presumptions;
it’s now 2018, we are initiating the 2nd planned review;
we’d like comments which we’ll consider at the Council’s March 2018 meeting prior to finalizing the three year review.
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3. Still using LRH stock management unit
Results
Year
LRH Abundance Forecast
Allowable ER pre-season
LRH Actual Return
Exploitation Rate Achieved
2012
127,000
0.41
85,000
0.43
2013
88,000
104,800
0.33
2014
110,000
101,900
0.46
2015
94,900
128,700
0.34
2016
133,700
81,500
0.36
2017
92,400
64,600
2018
62,400
0.38
n/a
West Coast Region
Still using LRH stock management unit
Slide 3: we are still forecasting the aggregate lower river hatchery abundance to act as a surrogate for wild salmon;
Table 2 captures what this slide shows;
Table 3 then depicts this information which is the annual actual return of the LRH stock unit along with the exploitation rates;
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4. Results Then Now West Coast Region LCR tule Chinook salmon populations
Photo by Marilyn & Eric Jordan
Slide 4: Tables 5, 6, and 7 attached to the end of the draft report has escapement data for eight additional populationswith natural origin proportions now;
This slide depicts what was available to us at the time we evaluated the matrix and what populations are now also being monitored;
new escapement information shows no substantive changes in abundance, and we have the ability now to measure hatchery contribution.
LCR tule Chinook salmon populations
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5. Results Most years allowable preseason ER = 41%
ERs have stayed under limit 66% of the time
West Coast Region ER
Slide5: Summary, the last three years preseason abundance forecasts for LRH have been high, consistent with other fall Chinook in the Columbia River, but have recently shown a decline;
fisheries therefore were at a 41% exploitation rate limit in all years except 2018;
Post season indicates the abundance category was correctly forecast in 4 of the 6 years;
post season estimates indicate that exploitation rates have stayed under the preseason limit 4 our 6 years;
need more data points to accumulate to allow for a more comprehensive review & to begin evaluating if we can forecast wild fish separately;
when possible ERs from FRAM should be compared to independent exploitation rate estimates derived from coded-wire tag groups;
Time
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6. ABM framework adjusted for expected LRH future release strategies
LRH Abundance
Total Exploitation Rate Limit
0 – 24,000
0.30
24,000 – 31,000
0.35
31,000 – 67,000
0.38
>67,000
0.41
West Coast Region
In 2017 NMFS adopted a Record of Decision, The Mitchell Act ROD directs NMFS to apply stronger performance goals to all Mitchell Act-funded, Columbia River Basin hatchery programs
Beamesderfer et. al. (2011) estimated annual hatchery releases of lower Columbia River programs averaged 22 million LRH juveniles per year from 1998 through 2008
The use of LRH stock was evaluated down to ~16million for the use in the matrix, we will still be above that at 17.3 with reductions planned, but recommend adjusting the tiers proportionately
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7. Please send written comments to:
Questions?
Please send written comments to: or
510 Desmond Drive SE, Suite 103
Lacey, WA
West Coast Region
Q’s and comment location, looking forward to receiving comments on material shown in the draft report and suggestions for other topics that should be considered.
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