1. Steelhead Viability: Where are we now and where are we going?
Paul McElhany
NOAA Fisherie
Northwest Fisheries Science Center

2. Talk Outline Recent NOAA Status Review TRT Viability Criteria
General Conclusions
Big Issues
Next Steps
TRT Viability Criteria
Purpose of criteria
General Structure
Preliminary Targets
TRT Population Evaluations

3. Biological Review Team
Reviewed status of all listed species in 2003
Relied on available data

4. Winter Steelhead Populations in LCR

5. Summer Steelhead Populations in LCR

6. Population Statistics in BRT Review
Run
Population
Years for Trend
Prob. Trend <1
Prob. l < 1
Hatchery = 0
Hatchery = Wild
Winter
Coweeman
0.822
0.851
0.995
South Fork Toutle
0.919
0.797
0.812
North Fork Toutle
0.026
0.135
Kalama
0.463
0.593
0.846
Clackamas
0.929
0.849
Sandy
0.999
0.991
1.000
Summer
Washougal
0.249
0.349
0.757
Wind
0.659
0.538
0.989

8. Big Issue #1: Hatcheries
Interim Policy: ESU’s must be naturally self sustaining
Identified relation of hatchery stocks to ESUs

9. Hatchery Stock Categories
relationship to natural population
Substantial natural
origin fish in
broodstock and
minimal
divergence
Moderate to few
natural origin fish
in broodstock and
no more than
moderate
divergence *
substantial **
Source of hatchery stock and status of local population
source from
local, native
natural
population
source non-local but
within ESU, native
local natural
population exists
within ESU, no native
local natural population
source non-local and
predominantly from outside of
ESU 1a 2a 3a 2c 3b 1b 2b 3c 4
* moderate divergence = no more than observed between similar populations within ESU
substantial divergence = comparable to divergence observed within entire ESU
***
extreme divergence = greater than divergence observed within ESU or substantial artificial selection or manipulation NA
extreme divergence

10. Key Point About Hatcheries->
Hatchery fish may be part of ESU ----
but they do not positively affect the natural self-sustainability of the ESU

11. Big Issue #2: Anadromous-Resident Interactions
ESU Question – three categories
Sympatric = in ESU
Historically Allopatric = out of ESU
Recently Allopatric (i.e. Above Dams) = unknown
Risk Question
Big Uncertainty
Anadromy essential life-history component for long-term ESU viability

12. Big Issue #3: Recent High Returns
How do recent high returns affect risk evaluation?
What happens next time marine survivals decline?
Long-term predictions in marine survival?

13. Next Steps in ESA Listing
Policy consideration of recovery measures
Public announcement of proposed listing this month

14. Technical Recovery Team Tasks
Identify populations
Inform recovery goals (viability criteria)
Identify limiting factors
Determine impact of potential recovery actions

15. Useful Figure?

16. ESA Delisting Criteria
No longer threatened or endangered
“Measurable and objective”
Must relate to listed unit (e.g. ESU)
Not necessarily the flip side of listing criteria
Includes biological metrics of fish performance AND evaluation of threats
Part science– part policy

17. Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP)
Three simple steps!
Partition ESU into demographically independent populations
Evaluate viability of individual populations
Abundance
Productivity
Spatial structure
Diversity
Determine how many and which populations need to be in what status

18. How many and which populations?
Catastrophic Risk
Metapopulation Processes
Evolutionary Processes

19. WLC-TRT Viability Criteria Framework
ESU Criteria
Strata Criteria
Population Persistence Probability
Population Attributes
Productivity and Abundance
Diversity
Habitat
Spatial Structure

20. LCR Steelhead Strata Life History Ecological Zone Summer Winter
Cascade 4 14
Gorge 2 3
Ecological
Zone

21. Within strata- How many and which populations?
The recovery unit should have a enough populations with sufficiently high viability levels that the unit will persist.
The populations restored/maintained at viable status should be selected to:
Allow normative metapopulation processes (include “core” populations).
Allow normative evolutionary processes (include “genetic legacy” populations)
Minimize susceptibility to catastrophic events.

22. Population Persistence Categories
Persistence Category
Description
Very high extinction risk; extirpated 1
High extinction risk 2
Moderate extinction risk 3
Low extinction risk over 100 years; VSP 4
Very low extinction risk

23. Strata rule set At least two viable populations (>= level 3)
Average population persistence score >=2.25
Results in viability criteria proportional to historical population numbers

24. Current Status
1.16
1.06
1.21
1.26

25. Example Viable ESU
2.29
2.33
2.25
3.00

26. North Santiam Steelhead Attribute Persistence Probabilities
Abundance and Productivity
Diversity
Habitat
Spatial Structure

27. Conclusions BRT recognizes many ESUs still at risk
Viability criteria in development
Identifying recovery plan actions…