1. Agenda Item D.1.a
Supplemental NMFS Presentation 1
November 2018
Three Year Review of the Lower Columbia River natural coho harvest matrix
West Coast Region
Jeromy Jording, Sustainable Fisheries Division, Anadromous Harvest Branch

2. Harvest control rule matrix
West Coast Region
Parental Escapement (rate of full seeding)
Marine Survival Index
(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)
Very Low
(≤ 0.06%)
Low
(≤ 0.08%)
Medium
(≤ 0.17%)
High
(≤ 0.40%)
Very High
(> 0.40%)
Normal
≥ 0.30
10%
15%
18%
23%
30%
Allowable exploitation rate
< 0.30
≤ 10%
≤ 15%
≤ 18%
≤ 23%
≤ 30%
Slide 2: here is the matrix;
2014 the council proposed that we consider its use for ESA consultation standards for salmon fisheries in 2015 and beyond;
opinion adopted the recommendation to review the matrix every three years as a check on projected results and any changes in key presumptions;
it’s now 2018, we are initiating the planned review;
we’d like comments which we’ll consider at the Council’s March 2019 meeting prior to finalizing the three year review.
This harvest control rule depends on parental escapement and marine survival of the LCN coho stock
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3. Lower Columbia Natural coho
Results
Lower Columbia Natural coho
West Coast Region
Year
Average Parental Escapement (rate of full seeding)
Marine Survival Index
Preseason LCN coho forecast
Postseason LCN coho run
Exploitation Rate limit preseason
Exploitation Rate achieved
2015
Normal
High
35,900
20,900
23.0%
24.4%
2016
Medium
40,000
16,000
18.0%
8.9%
2017
30,100
31,200
10.8%
Slide 3: we forecasting the aggregate lower river wild abundance;
Table 2 captures what this slide shows;
Post season indicates the abundance category was correctly forecast in 2017, but high in 2015 & 2016;
Calculated total exploitation on LCN coho salmon in all fisheries in the ocean and in the Columbia River below Bonneville Dam. These are estimated using the Fisheries Regulation Assessment Model (FRAM) which is currently used by the Council to annually estimate impacts of proposed ocean and terminal fisheries on Chinook and coho salmon stocks.
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4. Results Then Now West Coast Region LCR coho salmon populations
Photo by Marilyn & Eric Jordan
Slide 4: Tables 4, 5, and 6 attached to the end of the draft report has new escapement data for seven;
This slide depicts what was available to us at the time we evaluated the matrix and what populations are now also being monitored;
new escapement information shows no substantive changes in abundance or hatchery.
LCR coho salmon populations
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5. Results All three years parental escapement = Normal
Marine survival has not been below the medium
Since 2015 ERs have been below limit by nearly 1/2
West Coast Region ER
Slide5: Summary, the contributing three parental escapement years have been normal, and marine survival forecasts for LCN have been high,;
need more data points to accumulate to allow for a more comprehensive review;
when possible ERs from FRAM should be compared to independent exploitation rate estimates derived from coded-wire tag groups;
Time
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6. Please send written comments to:
Questions?
Please send written comments to: or
510 Desmond Drive SE, Suite 103
Lacey, WA
West Coast Region
Q’s and comment location, looking forward to receiving comments on material shown in the draft report and suggestions for other topics that should be considered.
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