Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Mar. 29, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 Yield (bu./acre) 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 174.0 Production (mil. bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,076 Beg. Stocks 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,127 Imports 32 67 57 50 Total Supply 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,947 16,253 Feed & Residual 5,280 5,120 5,473 5,550 5,475 Ethanol 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,575 5,650 Food, Seed, & Other 1,401 1,422 1,450 1,470 1,495 Exports 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,900 Total Use 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,820 14,520 Ending Stocks 1,733 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.35 3.40 Source: USDA, with adjustments for 2018 acreage 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.0 Yield (bu./acre) 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.1 48.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,272 Beg. Stocks 92 191 197 302 555 Imports 33 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,718 4,852 Crush 1,873 1,886 1,901 1,960 1,980 Seed & Residual 146 122 139 138 135 Exports 1,842 1,936 2,174 2,065 2,300 Total Use 3,862 3,944 4,213 4,163 4,415 Ending Stocks 437 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 8.95 9.47 9.30 9.25 Source: USDA , with adjustments for 2018 acreage 3 3

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

Corn Stocks Units: Billion bushels Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

Soybean Stocks Units: Billion bushels Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

South American Weather Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 8 8

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 9 9

Projected Corn Acres Top: 2018 Acreage Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 10 10

Projected Soybean Acreage Top: 2018 Acreage Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 11 11

Acreage Shifts Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 12 12

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Production Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 4.13 4.10 3.56 Source: CME Group, 3/29/2018

Current Soybean Futures 10.26 9.89 9.53 Source: CME Group, 3/29/2018

2017/18 Crop Margins

2018/19 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/