A STATE-WIDE ACTIVITY-BASED MODEL FOR MARYLAND (MSTM 2.0)

Project Team Lead Agency: Maryland State Highway Administration (SHA) SHA Project Manager: Subrat Mahapatra Partner Agency: Baltimore Metropolitan Council (BMC) BMC project Manager: Charles Baber Technical Team Lead: National Transportation Center at the University of Maryland (PI: Lei Zhang) Technical Team Members: Cambridge Systematics (Tom Rossi, Feng Liu), University of Memphis (Sabya Mishra)

Key Policy Questions Long distance trips from and to Maryland Corridor management policies Multimodal congestion mitigation strategies The importance of freight to Maryland The importance of rail and other transit modes Economic development and cumulative impact assessment Road pricing/managed lanes Behavioral implications of non-recurrent congestion and unreliability Environmental issues including energy consumption and air pollution emissions

Model Capabilities Disaggregate demand at all levels Participation decisions for activities Chaining of trips according to temporal and spatial constraints Decisions based on lifestyle choices Fine time resolution of the demand for the 24 hours day Value of Travel Time Savings for each traveler, and activity type Activity-based Accessibility measures

MITAMS Three levels: Statewide: MSTM 2.BMC MPO InSITE ABM 3.Subarea/Corridor SILK AgBM All integrated with DTA ABM: Activity-Based Model AgBM: Agent-Based model

Existing Works MSTM 2.0 leveraged the following existing works: BMC InSITE Activity-based Travel Demand Model SHRP2 C10 Maryland Integrated Travel Analysis Modeling System (MITAMS) SHRP2 C20 Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan NTC2014-SU-R-21 U.S. National and Inter-Regional Travel Demand Analysis: Person-level Microsimulation Model and Application to High-Speed Rail Demand Forecasting

Unique Characteristics of Maryland The majority of Maryland’s population lives in the Baltimore-Washington area significant proportion of the state’s planning activities occur within Baltimore-Washington area Significant amount of trips between Maryland and Northern Virginia jurisdictions The Eastern Shore is connected geographically and economically with Delaware and parts of Virginia Western Maryland is linked significantly to other states

Study Area

Overview of the Model Structure

InSITE Activity-Based Model

Short Distance Challenges Extending InSITE to non-BMC area Defining the Halo area Data inventory for non-BMC area Introducing segmentation for non-BMC area Calibration-Validation Integrating with the long distance and the freight model

Micro-Simulation Long Distance Model Tour Level Procedure and Model Components Long Distance Travel Demand Model System

Long Distance Challenges Definition of long distance travels to separate them from short distance travels Run time to simulate the entire US population Converting quarterly demand into daily demand Disaggregation from MSA level into MSTM TAZ level Calibration-validation

Tour-based Freight Model

Freight Challenges Extending the Urban Tour-based Commercial Vehicle Model to the whole state Integrating with Passenger models Data inventory for non-BMC area Introducing segmentation for non-BMC area

Technology Transfer Agency involvement at all stages of model development Detailed documentation and user guide On-site support for model installation and applications Hands-on training workshop series

Next Steps Designing applications to show model’s unique capabilities Integrating the models with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) Visualizing model outputs by UMD CATT Lab Incorporating the models into agency business processes Integrating reliability measures into the models

Questions and Comments Agency Point of Contact Subrat Mahapatra Transportation Engineering Manager Maryland State Highway Administration Phone: 410-545-5649 Email: smahapatra@sha.state.md.us Technical Point of Contact Dr. Lei Zhang Herbert Rabin Distinguished Professor of Engineering National Transportation Center, U. of Maryland Phone: 301-405-2881 Email: lei@umd.edu