1. Analytical Needs SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program Donnelly, Davidson, Binkowski & Arens 12-Dec-2011

2. The ideal model? Responsive Current Attainable Agile Extensible Needs driven Evolutionary, compatible Life-cycle view, incremental Data, resources Best practice, defensible, credible 2

3. Outline National issues and trends Federal requirements Certification New Starts Local requirements Strategic uses Tactical uses Performance measures 3

4. Motivation for advanced models TRB Special Report 288, “Metropolitan travel forecasting: current practice and future direction” (2007) The committee therefore recommends development and implementation of new modeling approaches to demand forecasting that are better suited to providing reliable information for such applications as multimodal investment analyses, operational analyses, environmental assessments, evaluations of a wide range of policy alternatives, toll-facility revenue forecasts, and freight forecasts, and to meeting federal and state regulatory requirements. 4

5. Federal requirements Model certification (FHWA) Inventory of current transportation system Key assumptions driving forecasts Model descriptions New Starts (FTA) Asymptomatic standard practice model Internal consistency Robust mode choice model Transit path-building and assignment Standardized reporting (SUMMIT) 5

6. Local requirements TacticalStrategic Traditional Subarea analyses Selected link analyses Transit corridor or project analyses Traffic impact studies Time & cost savings of projects Update RTP and TIP Project prioritization & programming Air quality conformity Assessment of regional strategies Trade-off analyses Improving regional mobility Demand management vs. capacity TOD & 4D analyses Evaluating new transport modes Non-traditional Construction & detour analyses Work zone staging & management Linkage with traffic operations models Signal timing optimization Traffic impact studies Network reliability Equity and environmental justice impacts Capacity reduction strategies Market accessibility & competitiveness Economic impacts of transport Understanding freight & supply chains Impact of fuel price increases Equity and environmental justice impacts 6

7. Modeling “strategic shrinking” 7 Growing regionsShrinking regions Where to build capacityWhat capacity to save Network expansionOperations and maintenance Population and employment growthJobs retention Who benefitsWho is impacted Equity implications Cursory cost-benefit analysisRigorous cost-benefit analysis Large projectsSynergies of small projects Congestion (unreliable networks)Congestion (aging networks) Improving transit accessibility Cost-effective resource allocation Broad brushFine brush

8. Performance measures Transportation-related measures: Infrastructure utilization rates Peak service, demand, and total consumption Transit ridership Percentage of time in compliance with AQ standards 8

9. Requirements  recommendations TacticalStrategic Traditional Subarea analyses Selected link analyses Transit corridor or project analyses Traffic impact studies Time & cost savings of projects Performance measures Update RTP and TIP Project prioritization & programming Air quality conformity Assessment of regional strategies Trade-off analyses Improving regional mobility Demand management vs. capacity TOD & 4D analyses Evaluating new transport modes Non-traditional Construction & detour analyses Work zone staging & management Linkage with traffic operations models Signal timing optimization Traffic impact studies Network reliability Equity and environmental justice impacts Capacity reduction strategies Market accessibility & competitiveness Economic impacts of transport Understanding freight & supply chains Impact of fuel price increases Equity and environmental justice impacts Best practice (E7+) model Dynamic network modelLand use-transport model Activity-based model 9

10. Summary Required? 10