Project Duration: 3 years Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina Project Coordinator: Dr. Carlos Gay, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México DF Project Duration: 3 years

Focusing on current adaptation and vulnerability RESEARCH QUESTIONS How are broad-scale socioeconomic processes of institutional change in Mexico and Argentina affecting the vulnerabilities of different types of farm systems and their capacities to adapt to climatic variability and change? Focusing on current adaptation and vulnerability Goal of identifying institutional constraints to adaptation AIACC-LA29

Link between Institutional Change and Adaptation Represents an “impact” to farmers: affects stability of livelihoods through time Circumscribes resource use and access, decision flexibility In context of Neoliberalism, markets play critical roles in opportunities and constraints for adaptation Institutions may facilitate adaptation via better use of climate information among other options AIACC-LA29

Flexibility, Stability, Climate information Impacts Exposure Perceptions, impacts knowledge } Climate Policy, Markets Flexibility, Stability, Resource Access } f Vulnerability Macro-level Farm-level Opportunities/ Constraints Adaptation Capacity Recommendations to facilitate adaptation AIACC-LA29

RESEARCH SITES Small-scale export: Veracruz and Córdoba Large-scale diversified export: Tamaulipas and Córdoba AIACC-LA29

Córdoba Province Argentina AIACC-LA29

Climate Analysis Drivers of regional and local variability Trends in temperature, precipitation Extreme events Generation of climate change scenarios Downscaling to required spatial scale of analysis Sensitivity of crops and agroecosystem AIACC-LA29

Institutional Analysis methods Review of policy and program documents Analysis of statistical data at for trends and access to key services and resources (1980 – 2002) Trends in relevant output and input prices Structured interviews with stakeholders Stakeholder workshops Stakeholder climate information needs and use AIACC-LA29

Farm Level Analysis methods Focus groups Participatory Rural Appraisal Impact matrix In-depth interviews Analysis of changes in livelihood strategies Household livelihood surveys AIACC-LA29

Farm-level Analysis adaptative capacity Focused on three attributes of adaptation: Flexibility Diversity of agricultural system (+) Livelihood/Income diversity (+) Resource base (endowments) (-/+) Tendencies and changes in the above Stability Exposure to/ impact of market risk (-) Exposure to/ impact of climatic risk (-) Degree of variability/change in rural economy (-) AIACC-LA29

Farm Level Analysis adaptive capacity Resource Access Access to financial resources (credit) (+) Participation in support programs (+) Participation in social programs (+/-) Irrigation access(+) Social organization and networks (+) Market access (-/+) Tendencies and changes in the above AIACC-LA29

AIACC-LA29

Methods still under consideration… Establishing coping range and thresholds for each case study Application of “option theory” to understand decisions and risk perception Scenario construction (bottom-up storylines) AIACC-LA29