2011 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management In-Service May 9, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 92.2 Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 161.7 Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 13,537 Beg. Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 675 Imports 14 8 20 Total Supply 13,729 14,774 14,175 14,232 Feed & Residual 5,182 5,140 5,150 5,120 Ethanol 3,709 4,568 5,000 Food, Seed, & Other 1,316 1,371 1,400 1,440 Exports 1,849 1,987 1,950 2,000 Total Use 12,056 13,066 13,500 13,560 Ending Stocks 672 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.40 ?.?? 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 76.6 Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 43.4 Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,268 Beg. Stocks 205 138 151 140 Imports 13 15 Total Supply 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,423 Crush 1,662 1,752 1,650 Seed & Residual 106 108 125 115 Exports 1,279 1,501 1,580 1,575 Total Use 3,047 3,361 3,355 3,340 Ending Stocks 83 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.50 ??.?? 3 3
Corn Area Source: USDA-NASS
Soybean Area Source: USDA-NASS
Weather Alerts Source: NOAA-NWS
Weather Concerns 7 7
Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS
Historical Comparisons
Some Recent Comparisons Source: USDA-NASS
World Corn Production Source: USDA 11 11
World Soybean Production Source: USDA 12 12
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension
Corn vs. Wheat (CME July 2011 futures)
Export Pace vs. Last Year Source: USDA, FAS
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS
Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Ethanol Stocks
Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1) 21 21
Ethanol Blending Advantage
Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price
Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price
Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond General economic conditions Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices Energy prices limiting recovery (Osama effect?) Supply/demand concerns Planting intentions vs. realizations (A good week puts in 30% of crop) Biofuel growth and energy demand Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? 2010/11 USDA 2011/12 Futures (5/6/11) Corn $5.40 $6.21 Soybeans $11.50 $12.65
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/