CAFE baseline dissemination workshop September 27, 2004 Hendrik Conscience building, Brussels

Purpose of the workshop Presentation public, first hand information on the CAFE baseline projections. Understanding of the common starting point for the analysis on further emission control legislation in Europe. Information on project environmental and health impacts of the air quality up to 2020. Presentation the results of the peer review of the RAINS model. Clarification of results. Information of next steps on analysis and publication of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution.

Programme 10:10 Building the baseline (Vainio) 10:30 Energy projections (Mantzos) 10:55 Commentary (Jol) 11:05 Discussion 11:20 Coffee break   11:40 CAFE Baseline (Amann) 12:10 Commentary (Baverstock) 12:20 Discussion 13:00 Lunch 14:00 Baseline impacts (Amann) 14:40 Commentary (Ågren) 14:50 Discussion 15:20 Sum up findings (Amann)    15:40 Coffee break 16:00 RAINS Review (Woodfield) 16:30 Discussion 16:50 Overall discussion   17:20 Next steps (Gammeltoft) 17.30 Closure

Building the baseline Motto “Wisdom starts from facing the facts”: CONSTRUCTION OF THE BASELINE IN CAFE (3 December 2001) See http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/cafe/pdf/ steering_technical_group/construction_of_baseline.pdf Main issues to be solved when baseline is developed: Changes in economic activity Changes in the structure of our economies Changes in autonomous technological development Changes in specific sectors Agriculture (e.g. CAP reform), energy supply (eg. renewables, nuclear), transport sector (e.g. biofuels, congestion charging), industry and other sectors (new production methods, innovations etc.)

Principles when building the CAFE baseline Extensive consultation Planned to hold three stakeholder workshops. Actually held “kick off” and “final” workshop and a series of bilateral consultations. In addition, specific workshops/meetings on agriculture, transport (TREMOVE) and industry were held either under the auspices of CAFE or separately (eg. TFIAM). Review main tools CAFE team decided with CLRTAP (TFIAM) to have RAINS peer reviewed. Review ecosystem and health impacts - abatement options CCE, WHO, EGTEI and others gave vital technical information EMEP calculated the effects of the baseline emissions Also EMEP model was peer reviewed. Transparency Identified the clear need to share the CAFE baseline with the State of the Environment and Outlook of EEA.

Main technical tasks of Clean Air for Europe New target setting (2004) [4.1 & 4.2] Assessment of health and environ-mental effects (2001-03) [1.1-1.4] Integrated Assessment (including CBA) (2004-05) [5.1-5.3] Baseline emissions and air quality scenario (including atmospheric modelling) (2001-04) [2.1-2.4] Policy guidance (2005) [7] Development & integration of models (2001-04) [2.4 & 5.2] Implementation (2001-04) [6.1] Peer review Stakeholder participation Public information Note: Numbers is parenthesis ( ) refer to the years when the tasks are carried out. Numbers in square brackets [ ] refer to the tables of tasks in the Work Plan 27 September, 2004

Details of main technical tasks of CAFE Assessment of health and environmental effects [1.1-1.4] Selection of health and environmental targets for optimisation [4.2] Selection of alternative scenarios [5.2] Selection of indicators [4.1] Identification of potential measures [5.1] Integrated Assessment Modelling [5.2] Assessment of measures, ceilings, proposed targets or commitments [5.4] Policy guidance [7] Cost curves [5.1] Baseline emissions scenario [2.1-2.2] Analysis of costs and benefits [5.3] Source-receptor functions, regional and urban scale [2.4] 27 September 2004 Interaction throughout Note: Numbers in square brackets [ ] refer to the tables of tasks in the Work Plan Monitoring and atmos-pheric modelling [2.3-2.4] Implementation, peer review, stakeholder participation, public information

Why and how were climate policies included It was clear that one cannot prepare a baseline in isolation of climate change policies Decarbonisation of the EU will affect air quality up to 2020 However, for CAFE robust assumptions should be enough In consultion with the Climate Change unit, specific assumptions were made: ”Climate bonus” assumes that the enlarged EU complies with the Kyoto Protocol with €12 per tonne of CO2 equivalent In the ”Sectoral Objectives study” the main conclusion was that EU-15 could comply with €20 per tonne of CO2 equivalent. JI/CDM and enlargement will reduce this cost. Carbon constraint is assumed to increase linearly to €20 per tonne of CO2 equivalent by 2020

What about NEC? A separate baseline for NEC will be constructed Also the integrated assessment modelling will be further developed Bilateral consultations will take place in 2005 Proposal from the Commission in 2006

So let’s see how it looks like! Conclusions In 2001, we aimed at getting a baseline that is “as good as it gets” Now we have it! So let’s see how it looks like!