1. Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Progress on modelling emission scenarios

2. I. Emission scenarios for the EEA Kiev 2003 report Objective: Explore ancillary benefits of Kyoto implementation options in Europe

3. Scenarios for the EEA Kiev report Energy scenarios developed with RIVM/IMAGE/TIMER model, for groups of countries 5 alternative energy scenarios: BL: Baseline: No constraints on GHG emissions UA: Unilateral implementation of Kyoto/Marrakech cuts on GHG, EU bubble TFU: 10% reduction of GHG in Europe, with bubbles TWB: International trading of GHG reductions, banking of 80% of the ‘hot air’ emissions of the Former Soviet Union TWOHA: International trading, no ‘hot air’ allowed

4. Emission controls assumed Energy and emission statistics for 1995-1999 used to calibrate RAINS database Emission controls assumed: Gothenburg Protocol / NEC Directive LCP Directive Fuels Directives Auto-Oil 2

5. SO 2 emissions 2010

6. NO x emissions 2010

7. Preliminary conclusions LCP Directive will over-fulfill NEC Directive for SO 2 No major/significant influence on NO x and VOC More optimistic assumptions about structural changes will lead to lower emissions in accession countries For 2010, differences in air pollution impacts of implementation alternatives of Kyoto Protocol are limited, given the present legislation on air pollution

8. II. Emission projections for the northern hemisphere up to 2020

9. Emission legislation (1) Europe: 1999 Gothenburg Protocol of CLTRAP EU legislation: National Emission Ceilings Directive (2000) Former Soviet Union (FSU): Action implied by Gothenburg Protocol for European part of Russia North America (US + Canada): US Clear Skies Initiative Ozone Annex of Canada-U.S. Air Quality Agreement

10. Emission legislation (2) China: 10 th Environmental 5-years Plan 2000-2005 East Asia (Japan, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, etc.): Review of national legislations South Asia (India): Essentially uncontrolled Mexico, Middle East, North Africa: Not included in this analysis

11. SO 2 emissions 1980-2020

12. NO x emissions 1980-2020

13. VOC emissions 1980-2020

14. CO emissions 1990-2020

15. Conclusions “Classical” anthropogenic air pollutants (NO x, CO, VOC, SO 2 ) unlikely to grow in the northern hemisphere in next 20 years (Controlled) increase in developing countries compensated by controls in industrialized countries But: “Safe” air quality levels will not be achieved In industrialized countries only limited potential for further technical emission controls will remain Developing countries started to control mobile sources; for stationary sources only SO 2 controlled

16. III. Baseline scenario for UN/ECE and CAFE

17. Baseline scenario Energy scenario: Commission proposes DG-TREN baseline energy scenario for CAFE National scenarios for UN/ECE? Agricultural scenario: EU: No news beyond 2010 (CAPRI not beyond 2010) Europe-wide trends up to 2020: WATSIM US scenario for accession countries? National scenarios for UN/ECE?