2016-2026 Long-Term Industry and Occupational Projections To change the image on this slide, select the picture and delete it. Then click the Pictures icon in the placeholder to insert your own image. Paul Daniels, Statistician and Analyst Virginia Employment Commission

Background

A Brief History of Industry and Occupational Projections TEGL 1-16 outlines the Virginia Employment Commission’s need to produce state and local projections Funding provided by Workforce Information Grant Coordinated nation-wide by the Projections Managing Partnership Short-term (2 year) projections done annually Long-term (10 year) projections produced biennially Data sources: CPS, OES, CES, QCEW, LEWIS, BLS (National Change Factors and staffing patterns) Uses include: Development of high demand lists, training programs, funding requests, community development, industry development, business acquisition, and much more

New Methodology for 2018 Separations-based methodology implemented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, ending use of Replacements methodology, in late 2017 Methodology began with statewide 2017-2019 short-term projections, and national 2016-2026 long-term projections Purpose (1): Estimate the need to replace workers who leave their occupation Purpose (2): Account for diverse job changes in an evolving workforce with low unemployment

Comparing Old and New Methods Replacements Separations Openings recorded when an individual of one age cohort leaves an occupation and is replaced by a worker from a different age cohort Assumes one occupation held throughout career Disadvantages smaller occupations Total Openings broken down to Replacements and Growth Openings recorded when a worker leaves the workforce, or transfers from one major occupation to another Accounts for career paths and a dynamic labor market Reflects potential for openings and replacements Total Openings broken down to Transfers, Exits, and Change

Replacements Versus Separations Anthony: 44 year career, 1 opening created Allie: 44 year career, 4 openings created Paper Route Short term job, with primarily one age cohort moving in and out Newspaper Journalist Primary Career Occupation held until retirement Replace by younger age cohort Bank Teller (5 years) College Student (4 years) Accountant (8 years) HR Specialist (15 years) Financial Manager (12 years)

2016-2026 Long-Term Industry Projections

Total Employment Change Key Findings Fastest Growing Major Industries Industry 2016 Base Employment 2026 Projected Employment Annual Growth Total Employment Change Health Care and Social Assistance 441,229 554,380 2.31% 113,151 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 409,398 482,019 1.65% 72,621 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 54,776 62,677 1.36% 7,901 Administrative Support and Waste Management 229,537 256,925 1.13% 27,388 Educational Services 354,347 395,780 1.11% 41,433

Key Findings, continued Fastest Declining Major Industries Industry 2016 Base Employment 2026 Projected Employment Annual Growth Total Employment Change Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas Extraction 5,756 5,205 -1.0% -551 Manufacturing 231,173 217,890 -0.59% -13,283 Information 67,902 66,875 -0.15% -1,027 Public Administration 59,188 59,044 -0.02% -144

2016-2026 Long-Term Occupational Projections Consider the Question

Top 10 Occupations by Projected Employment Retail Salespersons 125,557 Cashiers 110,536 Food Preparation and Service Workers 110,410 General Office Clerks 89,036 Waiters and Waitresses 77,190 Occupation Annual Projected Employment Registered Nurses 74,128 Janitors and Cleaners 73,134 Personal Care Aides 72,069 Management Analysts 68,510 Customer Service Representatives 68,040

Top 10 Occupations by Annual Growth Rate Personal Care Aides 5.13% Home Health Aides 4.24% Physician Assistants 3.77% Nurse Practitioners 3.69% Statisticians 3.67% Occupation Annual Growth Information Security Analysts 3.53% Operations Research Analysts 3.16% Physical Therapist Assistants 3.10% Marriage and Family Therapists 3.03% Medical Assistants 3.01%

Top 10 Occupations by Annual Openings Cashiers 20,518 Food Preparation and Serving Workers 20,171 Retail Salespersons 17,972 Waiters and Waitresses 14,511 Personal Care Aides* 10,937 Occupation Annual Openings General Office Clerks 10,368 Janitors and Cleaners 9,646 Customer Service Representatives 8,766 Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 7,987 Laborers and Movers 7,506

2016-2026 Projected Skills, Knowledge and Education

In-Demand Skills by Occupational Dominance O*NET Skill 2026 Projected Employment Projected Employment Difference Growth Number of Occupations Active Listening 1,036,621 113,462 1.17% 184 Speaking 998,806 115,019 1.23% 182 Reading Comprehension 562,527 67,407 1.28% 153 Critical Thinking 415,907 58,828 1.54% 119 Writing 272,560 32,348 1.27% 79 Instructing 191,284 23,334 1.31% 51 Social Perceptiveness 378,701 45,090 48 Judgement and Decision Making 213,180 32,095 1.65% 35 Learning Strategies 153,245 18,396 1.29% 33 Complex Problem Solving 95,061 13,437 31

High Demand Skills by Growth Rate O*NET Skill 2026 Projected Employment Projected Employment Difference Growth Number of Detailed Occupations Active Learning 30,076 6,084 2.29% 23 Programming 61,823 11,884 2.16% 4 Mathematics 26,849 4,916 2.04% 9 Systems Evaluation 80,094 13,678 1.89% 3 Judgment and Decision Making 213,180 32,095 1.65% 35 Service Orientation 201,356 30,061 1.63% 17 Time Management 67,837 9,898 1.59% Critical Thinking 415,907 58,828 1.54% 119 Complex Problem Solving 95,061 13,437 31 Science 34,197 4,727 1.50%

Education-Based Projections Educational Attainment 2016 Base Employment 2026 Projected Employment Employment Change Growth Number of Detailed Occupations Master’s Degree 75,718 93,191 17,473 2.10% 38 Doctoral or Professional Degree 103,938 121,473 17,535 1.57% 63 Bachelor’s Degree 1,011,520 1,153,352 141,832 1.32% 175 Post-secondary Non-degree Award 249,640 284,282 34,642 1.31% 46 Associate’s Degree 101,822 114,162 12,340 1.15% 48 No Formal Education 953,907 1,029,247 75,340 0.76% 104 High School or Equivalent 1,502,979 1,615,214 112,235 0.72% 334 Some College 97,872 104,182 6,310 0.63% 5

Questions? Projections Contacts: Paul Daniels: (804) 786-8378 or Paul.Daniels@vec.Virginia.gov Ann Lang: (804) 786-3177 or Ann.Lang@vec.Virginia.gov https://www.Data.VirginiaLMI.com