Crop Situation and Outlook Western Iowa No-Till Demonstration Field Day Shelby, Iowa June 16, 2009 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1

U.S. Corn Emergence Source: USDA, Crop Progress

U.S. Soybean Progress Source: USDA, Crop Progress

U.S. Soybean Emergence Source: USDA, Crop Progress

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5 86.0 85.0 Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 153.4 Production (mil. bu.) 13,038 12,101 11,935 Beg. Stocks 1,304 1,624 1,600 Imports 20 15 Total Supply 14,362 13,740 13,550 Feed & Residual 5,938 5,350 5,150 Ethanol 3,026 3,750 4,100 Food, Seed, & Other 1,337 1,290 1,310 Exports 2,436 1,750 1,900 Total Use 12,737 12,140 12,460 Ending Stocks 1,090 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.20 4.30 Source: USDA 6 6

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2007 2008 2009 Area Planted (mil. acres) 64.7 75.7 76.0 Yield (bu./acre) 41.7 39.6 42.6 Production (mil. bu.) 2,677 2,959 3,195 Beg. Stocks 574 205 110 Imports 10 12 Total Supply 3,261 3,176 3,317 Crush 1,801 1,650 1,675 Seed & Residual 93 167 171 Exports 1,161 1,250 1,260 Total Use 3,056 3,066 3,107 Ending Stocks 210 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 10.00 Source: USDA

Hog Returns vs. Corn Prices Sources: ISU Extension, Farrow-to-Finish; USDA-NASS

Cattle Returns vs. Corn Prices Sources: ISU Extension, Yearling Steers; USDA-NASS

Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

Crude Oil Prices Source: Energy Information Administration

Crude Oil Futures Prices Source: NYMEX

Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

Biodiesel Margins Source: ISU, CARD

Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Crop Year Billion Bushels 2008 3.57 2009 4.11 2010 4.43 17 17

Dept. of Energy Projections Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009

Outside Influences (Jan. 2007 = 1)

Ethanol vs. Gasoline

% of Gasoline Blended with Ethanol Source: Energy Information Administration

U.S. Stocks-to-Use Ratios

World Stocks-to-Use Ratios

Seasonal Pricing Patterns Source: USDA, NASS, Monthly Price Data 1980-2008

Corn Futures 2009 Rev. Ins. Price $4.04 Source: CBOT, 6/15/09

Soybean Futures 2009 Rev. Ins. Price $8.80 Source: CBOT, 6/15/09

Basis

Thoughts for 2009 and Beyond General economic conditions Recession concerns still hold significant power in the markets Projected economic recovery is a major key to steady/higher prices for the 2009 crop year Most important ag. statistic: U.S. acreage estimates (June Plantings report) USDA is indicating 2009 season-average prices in the neighborhood of $4.30 for corn and $10.00 for soybeans Current futures Yesterday: Corn $4.05, Soy $9.71

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/