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Outline War and its causes Balance of Power theory World War I: history and explanation World War II: history and explanation

Causes of war (Farnsworth, 1992) Human nature Balance of power theory – imbalances cause war Efforts by states to build up own forces because they feel threatened Number of states in system Demands of domestic system Nationalism Bad leadership and policy choices

War and its causes http://media.economist.com/images/na/2008w51/Conflicts.jpg

Balance of Power theory Three definitions of “balance of power” Description of distribution of existing power between states Conscious policy and set of principles intended by states to achieve a balance of power Unintended consequence of international system structure “Secondary states … flock to the weaker side” (Waltz) States sometime bandwagon rather than balance

Characteristics of polarity and balancing Number of poles: unipolar (hegemony) bipolar multipolar Degree of polarization: tightness discreteness of poles level of animosity Relationship to war imbalances cause war, equilibrium causes peace

World War I and its causes Deep causes: Increasing power of Germany Less flexible alliance structure. Intermediate causes Concerns about encirclement and expansionist policies Serb nationalism threatening to Austro-Hungary Domestic German politics => adventurism and expansionism Complacency about need to balance (as conscious policy) Proximate causes Poor leadership and diplomacy of Austro-Hungary, Russia, and Germany Assassination came at bad time

Gavrilo Princip killing Archduke Francis Ferdinand 6/28/1914 Illustration from Italian newspaper. http://www.npr.org/2014/03/06/285893848/how-bad-directions-and-a-sandwich-started-world-war-i

Rising Nationalism Rising popular participation Collapse of Austria-Hungary Domestic class conflict Aggressive German Policy Rise in German power Bipolarity of Alliances Loss of moderation in system process Escalating Crisis War in 1914 Source: Nye 2011, p. 93

World War II and its causes Systemic level causes Effects of First World War WWI treaties too harsh and too lenient State level causes Poorly planned policies Stalin pact with Hitler ignores downside risks Strong nationalism in Germany and Japan Economic collapse of Great Depression US isolationism Individual level causes Hitler’s aggressive, expansionist, nationalist ideology Appeasement and misperceptions by Chamberlain, et al. Poor theory of Wilson and League of Nations Japanese miscalculation of power vis-à-vis US