1 Data Collection and Analysis in the U.S. Demographic System John F. Long

Dimensions of Data Collection Geography – Nation State County City Tract Block Housing unit 2 Time Period – Decennial Annual Monthly Characteristics – Demographic Social Economic

Dimensions of Data Collection 3

Major Data Collection Systems 2010 Census Vital Event Registration Administrative Data American Community Survey (annual) Monthly Labor Force Survey Specialized Household Surveys 4

Dimensions of Data Collection 5

Data Collection Types 6 Data Collection GeographyCharacteristicsTime 2010 Census XX Vital Events & Administrative Records. XX Household Surveys XX American Community Survey XXX

Dimensions of Data Collection 7

2000 Decennial Census – (geography by characteristics) In Census 2000, the census used 2 forms 1.short form – asked for basic demographic and housing information, such as age, sex, race, how many people lived in the housing unit, and if the housing unit was owned or rented by the resident 2.long form – collected the same information as the short form but also collected more in-depth information such as income, education, and language spoken at home Only a small portion of the population, called a sample, received the long form. 88

2010 U.S. Decennial Census (geography by selected characteristics) Design Features Basic Demographic Data Only Hand-held GPS address canvassing Mailed Census Forms Non-response follow-up Functions Political Apportionment / Redistricting Fund Allocation and Policy Implementation Base for Estimates and Surveys 9

2010 Census Timeline Spring 2009: Census employees go door-to-door to update address list nationwide. February – March 2010: Census questionnaires are mailed or delivered to households. April 1, 2010: Census Day April – July 2010: Census takers visit households that did not return a questionnaire by mail. December 2010: By law, Census Bureau delivers population counts to President for apportionment. March 2011: By law, Census Bureau completes delivery of redistricting data to states. 10

GPS Address Canvassing 11

Mail-out Census Forms 12

2010 Census Questionnaire 13

7 Census Questions per person -Name -Sex -Relationship -Date of Birth -Race -Hispanic Ethnicity -Housing Tenure 14

Census 2010 Questions (part 1) 15

Census 2010 Questions (part 2) 16

Census 2010 Questions (part 3) 17

Processing Forms 18

Non-Response Follow-up Personal Interview 19

Vital Events and Administrative Data --(geography by time) Annual data on Births and Deaths for Counties from Vital Events Registration Annual data on migration from administrative records -tax returns -immigration registration -housing construction 20

Household Surveys- (characteristics by time) National data on specific topics from national household surveys - monthly unemployment - government program participation - school enrollment - etc. 21

Increasing Rate of Change of Social and Demographic Factors Small Area Data Previously Available only Every 10 Years (census) National Survey provided data only at the level of states or above American Community Survey will provide more frequent data for small areas 22

American Community Survey- (geography by characteristics by time) Based on Results of Latest Census Controlled to Annual Independent Estimates Provides Annual detailed Data for Demographic, Social, and Economic Characteristics for large areas Provides 5-year detailed data for the smallest geographies 23

2010 Census and American Community Survey 2010 Census will focus on counting the U.S. population The sample data are now collected in the ACS Puerto Rico is the only U.S. territory where the ACS is conducted 2010 Census will have a long form for U.S. territories such as Guam and U.S. Virgin Islands Same short form questions on the ACS 24

American Community Survey Content 25

American Community Survey Social Characteristics Education Marital Status Fertility Grandparent Caregivers Veterans Disability Status 26 Place of Birth Citizenship Year of Entry Language Spoken at Home Ancestry / Tribal Affiliation

American Community Survey Economic Characteristics Income Benefits Employment Status Occupation Industry Commuting to Work Place of Work 27

American Community Survey Housing Characteristics Tenure Occupancy & Structure Housing Value Taxes & Insurance Utilities Mortgage/Monthly Rent 28

American Community Survey Demographic Characteristics Sex Age Race Hispanic Origin 29

American Community Survey Methodology Sample includes about 3 million addresses each year Three modes of data collection –mail –phone –personal visit Data are collected continuously throughout the year 30

Telephone Non-Response Follow- up 31

American Community Survey Target Population Resident population of the United States and Puerto Rico –Living in housing units and group quarters Current residents at the selected address –Two month rule 32

American Community Survey Group Quarters Place where people live or stay that is normally owned or managed by an entity or organization providing housing or services for the residents. 2 categories of group quarters: –Institutional –Non-institutional 33

American Community Survey Period Estimates ACS estimates are period estimates, describing the average characteristics over a specified period Contrast with point-in-time estimates that describe the characteristics of an area on a specific date 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year estimates will be released for geographic areas that meet specific population thresholds 34

American Community Survey Data Products Release Schedule 35 Data ProductPopulation SizeData released in: of Area Year Estimates65, for Data Collected in: 3-Year Estimates20, for Data Collected in: 5-Year EstimatesAll Areas* for Data Collected in: * Five-year estimates will be available for areas as small as census tracts and block groups. Source: US Census Bureau

American Community Survey Similarities with Census 2000 Same questions and many of the same basic statistics 5-year estimates will be produced for same broad set of geographic areas including census tracts and block groups 36

American Community Survey Key Differences from Census 2000 Beginning in 2010, data for small geographic areas will be produced every year versus once every 10 years Data for large and mid-sized areas are available now and data for small areas will be available in December 2010 Census 2000 data described the population and housing as of April 1, 2000 while ACS data describe a period of time and require data for 12 months, 36 months, or 60 months 37

American Community Survey Key Differences from Census 2000 The goal of ACS is to produce data comparable to the Census 2000 long form data These estimates will cover the same small areas as Census 2000 but with smaller sample sizes Smaller sample sizes for 5-year ACS estimates results in reductions in the reliability of estimates 38

Data Analysis Issues Define Analytical/Policy Issue Choice of Data Collection Types Integrating Multiple Data Collection Results: example of migration Emerging Issues in the U. S. and Measurement Strategies 39

Data Analysis from Different Data Dimensions

Example: Migration Analysis 2000 Census data provided data for a 5- year period No migration data from 2010 Census Alternatives – - CPS data - Administrative records - American Community Survey 41

Alternative Migration Data Sets Previous Censuses – geography by characteristics Administrative Records – geography by time Household Surveys – characteristics by time American Community Survey (ACS) – geography by characteristics by time 42

ACS Comparability Issues -5-years of annual ACS data is not equivalent to a migration period of 5-years (return and repeat migration) -Small geographic areas require use of multi-year averages -Sampling error can mask demographic change – especially for net migration. 43

Comparison of 1-year Migration and Mobility Rates from the American Community Survey and the March Current Population Survey: 2005, 2006, and Conclusion: ACS rates are 10 to 20 % higher than CPS rates.

Comparison of 1-year Net Migration from the 2007 American Community Survey and the 2007 Intercensal Population Estimates: Selected Areas in Michigan 45 Conclusion: ACS net migration numbers and rates are similar to intercensal estimates.

Conclusion ---Multiple data collection methods in the U.S. demographic system– particularly the new American Community Survey – provide flexibility and new insights to social and demographic change ---However, comparing results across systems requires care and an understanding of methodological differences. 46