Texas: Demographic Characteristics and Trends Osher Lifelong Learning Institute Education: Crisis and Opportunity October 12, 2011 Austin, TX Lila Valencia is Legislative Liaison and Research Associate at the Office of the State Demographer.

Growing States, 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 Population* 2010 Numerical Change 2000-2010 Percent United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6% Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009 Percent Change Due to Year* Population Numerical Change Natural Increase Net Migration Percent 1950 7,711,194 -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.09 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.26 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.42 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.15 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.35 2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33 *All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000-2009 Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Generally, international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high. However, with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.

States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 Estimate (thousands) Range California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850) Florida 825 (725 - 950) New York 625 (525 - 725) New Jersey 550 (425 - 650) Illinois 525 (425 - 625) Georgia 425 (300 - 550) Arizona 400 (275 - 500) Texas has an estimated 1.65 million unauthorized immigrants. Assuming most unauthorized migrants were counted in the Census, this represents about 6.5% of the total population. Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).

Total Population by County, 2010 Population % Change, 2000 to 2010 Texas population growth is not occurring uniformly across counties. The map on the left shows the counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated. The darker blue colors on the map on the right indicate counties with greater percentage change. The counties that are shaded in tan mostly experienced negative change, or population decline. Thus, many of the more rural, less populated counties have experienced declines in population over the past ten years. Most counties experienced increases within 10% to 25%, while a smaller number of counties surrounding urbanized areas experienced significant growth beyond 25%. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other. In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent). Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

Texas Racial & Ethnic Composition and Change, 2000 and 2010 Race/Ethnicity 2000 2010 Change Percent of Population Numeric Percent NH White 10,933,313 11,397,345 464,032 4.2 52.4 45.3 Hispanic 6,669,666 9,460,921 2,791,255 41.8 32.0 37.6 NH Black 2,364,255 2,886,825 522,570 22.1 11.3 11.5 NH Asian 554,445 948,426 393,981 71.1 2.7 3.8 NH Other 330,141 452,044 121,903 36.9 1.6 1.8 Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 100.0 The NH White population accounted for 11% of the total population growth in 2010. Minorities accounted for 89%. Hispanics accounted for 65% of the total population growth. Of the 4.3 million people added to the Texas population in 2010, 2.8 million were Hispanic. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.

Population by County, 2010 Non-Hispanic White Hispanic The non-Hispanic White population is concentrated in the five urban counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis. The counties surrounding these urban centers also hold concentrations of this population. The Hispanic population of Texas is most concentrated in Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties. With the exception of El Paso, the surrounding counties of these Hispanic concentrated counties have significant Hispanic populations. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Population by County, 2010 Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian The Black population in Texas is also most concentrated in Dallas and Harris counties and to a lesser extent in their surrounding counties. A significant Black population can also be seen in Bexar, Travis, and other east Texas counties. The Asian population of Texas is most concentrated in Dallas and Harris. Travis, Tarrant, Collin, and Fort Bend also have sizable Asian communities. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Percent Change in Population by County, 2000 to 2010 Non-Hispanic White Hispanic 161 counties lost non-Hispanic Anglo population over the decade while 92 counties gained non-Hispanic Anglo population. 232 counties gained Hispanic population, while only 22 lost Hispanic population. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Percent Change in Population by County, 2000 to 2010 Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian 204 counties gained in Asian population while only 38 lost Asian population over the decade (12 counties remained unchanged). 117 counties gained Black population while 133 lost Black population. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000-2040 The 2000-2007 migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015. Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario.

Texas Population Pyramid, 2010 Median age Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.

Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Texas is young. Approximately 27% of Texas are under 18, and 10% of the population is over 65 years. However, this age distribution varies by race/ethnicity. This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic White is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population. Median age Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.

Texas Population 18 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Numeric Percent NH White 8,426,166 9,074,684 648,518 7.7 56.3 49.6 Hispanic 4,282,901 6,143,144 1,860,243 43.4 28.6 33.6 NH Black 1,631,448 2,076,282 444,834 27.3 10.9 11.4 NH Asian 415,219 716,968 301,749 72.7 2.8 3.9 NH Other 209,327 268,659 59,332 28.3 1.4 1.5 Texas 14,965,061 18,279,737 3,314,676 22.2 100.0 Differential population growth by race/ethnicity is especially evident when looking at race/ethnic shares among those 18 and over and those under 18 years of age. Among those 18 and older, non-Hispanic Whites constitute the majority of the population at 50%. Hispanics make up 34% of those 18 and over, and NH Blacks, NH Asians, and NH Other make up 11%, 4%, and 2%, respectively. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.

Texas Population Under 18 by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2010 Change Percent of Population Numeric Percent NH White 2,507,147 2,322,661 -184,486 -7.4 42.6 33.8 Hispanic 2,386,765 3,317,777 931,012 39.0 40.5 48.3 NH Black 732,807 810,543 77,736 10.6 12.5 11.8 NH Asian 139,226 231,458 92,232 66.3 2.4 3.4 NH Other 120,814 183,385 62,571 51.8 2.0 2.7 Texas 5,886,759 6,865,824 979,065 16.6 100.0 Among those under 18 years of age, Hispanics make up close to half of the population in 2010. Non-Hispanic Blacks and Asians make up similar proportions of the 18 and older as well as the under 18 populations, with about 11% for non-Hispanic Blacks and 3% for non-Hispanic Asians. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.

Population Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2010 Percent of total population Population 65 years plus Texas is also aging. The age structure of many of the more rural counties are becoming older compared to more urban counties. While many of the urban counties have smaller percentages of their population in the older ages, the actual numbers of people aged 65+ are increasingly concentrated in urban counties and the southern border. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Summary File 1 Data. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected These two maps demonstrate the projected shift in the age structure of Texas at the county level. The age-structure in many counties in Texas will become older over the coming decades. The urban counties and the border counties will become older but not to the same extent as many of the more rural counties. Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Education in Texas

Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2010 Educational attainment in Texas varies by race/ethnicity. While 34% of non-Hispanic Whites have a bachelor’s degree or higher, only 11% of Hispanics have this level of educational attainment. African Americans fall in the middle of this range with just under 20% having a bachelor’s degree or higher. Hispanics have the highest share of persons with less than a high school diploma at 43%. Eight percent of non-Hispanic whites and 14% of African Americans have less than a high school education. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.

Percent of People 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed High School (includes equivalency)by Rural and Non-Metro Areas and County, 2005-2009 Of the 177 non-metropolitan counties, 6% (10 counties) had more than 85% of their adult population with at least a high school degree. Of the 77 metropolitan counties 25% (19 counties) had more than 85% of their adult population with at least a high school degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Percent of People 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed a Bachelor’s Degree by Rural and Non-Metro Areas and County, 2005-2009 Of the 177 non-metropolitan counties, 6% (10 counties) had more than 25% of their adult population with at least a bachelor’s degree. Of the 77 metropolitan counties 23% (18 counties) had more than 25% of their adult population with at least a bachelor’s degree. Adults in metropolitan counties are much more likely than adults in non-metropolitan counties to have at least a bachelor’s degree. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Educational Attainment Among Persons in the Labor Force, Texas 2009 Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Non-Hispanic Other Total Number % Less than High School 405,592 6.7 133,084 9.9 1,481,057 35.5 60,424 9.6 2,080,157 17.0 High School graduate 1,375,979 22.7 397,979 29.5 1,135,831 27.2 105,976 16.9 3,015,765 24.7 Some college/Associate’s degree 2,120,460 35.0 554,526 41.0 1,076,281 25.8 160,037 25.5 3,911,304 32.0 Bachelor’s degree 1,467,992 24.2 180,943 13.4 353,220 8.5 167,999 26.8 2,170,154 17.8 Graduate or Professional degree 688,951 11.4 84,423 6.2 130,678 3.1 133,122 21.2 1,037,174 Total civilian labor force 6,058,974 100.0 1,350,955 4,177,067 627,558 12,214,554 Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.

Public K-12 Education

Public K-12 Enrollment Texas public school enrollment during the 1999-2000 school year exceeded 4.0 million students. By 2009-10, enrollment had risen to 4.8 million students. Over the 10-year time period, total enrollment increased by 845,617 students, or 21.1 percent. Source: Texas Education Agency. Enrollment in Texas Public Schools 2009-10 (Table 2).

Public K-12 Enrollment Between the 1999-00 and 2009-10 school years, enrollment increased for all ethnic groups except Whites. Enrollment of White students declined by 6.5 percent. Hispanics had the largest numerical increase in enrollment, growing by 771,504 students (or 48.8%) over the decade. In 2009-10, Hispanic students accounted for the largest percentage of total enrollment (48.6%), followed by White students (33.3%). The first school year in which the number of Hispanic students surpassed the number of White students was 2001-02. Source: Texas Education Agency. Enrollment in Texas Public Schools 2009-10 (Table 4).

Public K-12 Enrollment During the 1999-00 school year, there were 1,956,000 economically disadvantaged students, representing 48.9 percent of all students. By 2009-10, the number of economically disadvantaged students had risen to 2,853,177, or 58.9 percent of all students. The 45.9 percent increase in economically disadvantaged students was more than double the 21.1 percent increase in the total public school population. While not shown here, the number of economically disadvantaged students within each ethnic group also increased between the 1999-00 and 2009-10 school years. Source: Texas Education Agency. Enrollment in Texas Public Schools 2009-10 (Table 5).

Public Higher Education

Public Higher Education In 2010, 418,293 students were enrolled in Texas 4-year public universities. The number of Hispanics enrolled in Texas public universities has been on the rise since 1993. In the Fall of 1993, 59,409 Hispanic students were enrolled in public 4-year universities and in Fall 2010 124,389 Hispanics enrolled. This was an increase of over 100%. Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. Note: Not all race/ethnicity categories that were reported are included in table.

Public Higher Education In the 2009-10 academic year, 79,472 students earned bachelor degrees from Texas 4-year public institutions. The number of Hispanics earning Bachelor’s Degrees at Texas public universities has also consistently increased since 1988. During the 1988-1989 academic year, 4,398 Hispanic students earned a Bachelor’s degree at a Public University and in 2009-2010 20,132 Hispanics graduated. This is an increase of over 350%. Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. Note: Not all race/ethnicity categories that were reported are included in table.

Socioeconomic and Labor Force Implications

Earnings and Education This chart depicts the relationship between earnings and educational attainment. Those with less than a high school education report median earnings of around $20k. Those with a bachelor’s degree have median earnings that are twice as high as those of individuals’ with a high school degree or GED. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates (B20004). Note: Earnings in 2010 inflation adjusted dollars.

Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009 Median household income in Texas between 2005 and 2009 was estimated to be $48,199. The darker green areas of the map highlight counties with higher median household incomes. These are located mostly in counties with large urban centers, including Harris and Travis, in counties surrounding Dallas and Bexar, and in the Hill Country and other areas of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. The counties with lower median household incomes can be seen along the southern border and in some parts of West Texas. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Percent of People Below Poverty in the Past 12 Months (for whom poverty status is determined) Between 2005 and 2009, it is estimated that 3.9 million Texans were living below the poverty level. This map depicts where these individuals reside. Of 177 non-metropolitan counties 36% (63 counties) had more than 20% living in poverty while of the 77 metropolitan counties 6% (5 counties) had 20% or more of their population living in poverty. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 tc 6.1 -- 12-4-02 308 Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.

Demographics & Destiny

Demographics & Destiny Texas is growing, and growing fast. Texas is young, but aging. Texas continues to diversify. Racial/ethnic disparities remain in many areas important to the future of Texas.

Office of the State Demographer Contact Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 E-mail: State.Demographer@osd.state.tx.us Website: http://osd.state.tx.us Office of the State Demographer The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.