Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist Crop Economics Ag. Credit School Ames, Iowa June 4, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Supply Demand U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.3 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 14,140 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 759 Imports 8 28 29 125 25 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,894 14,924 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,400 5,325 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,600 4,850 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,385 1,445 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 750 1,300 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,135 12,920 Ending Stocks 2,004 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.90 4.70 Supply Demand Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

Arable Land

Planted Area for the 8 Major Crops Source: USDA-ERS

Iowa Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

Iowa Farms and Farmland Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

Productivity Source: USDA-ERS

Change in Input Structure Source: USDA-ERS

Iowa Yields Source: USDA-NASS

Iowa Corn Costs Source: Duffy, AgDM A1-21

Iowa Soybean Costs Source: Duffy, AgDM A1-21

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Crop Margins

Corn Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

Soybean Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

U.S. Meat Production Source: USDA-ERS

U.S. Meat Consumption Source: USDA-ERS

U.S. Meat Exports Source: USDA-ERS

GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

World Meat Consumption Source: USDA-PSD

World Veg. Oil Consumption Source: USDA-PSD

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) Liquid Fuel Usage 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) (Percent of 2007 Value) United States 20.6 98% 100% 102% 104% 107% Canada 2.3 96% Mexico 2.1 105% 110% 114% 129% 138% Europe 15.3 92% 88% 89% 90% Japan 5.0 84% 86% 82% China 7.6 132% 153% 178% 201% 222% India 2.8 139% 154% 168% Africa 3.1 113% 116% 126% 135% 148% Central and South America 6.0 112% 117% 125% 133% World 86.1 103% 121% 128% Source: DOE-EIA

U.S. Crude Oil Prices Source: USDA-ERS

Ethanol Production Source: DOE-EIA

Biodiesel Production Source: DOE-EIA

U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

World Corn Markets Source: USDA 29 29

Supply Demand U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.3 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 14,140 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 759 Imports 8 28 29 125 25 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,894 14,924 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,400 5,325 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,600 4,850 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,385 1,445 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 750 1,300 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,135 12,920 Ending Stocks 2,004 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.90 4.70 Supply Demand Source: USDA-WAOB 30 30

Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/