2018-2019 Scenario Scoping Process Michael Bailey, P.E System Adequacy Planning, WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Talking Points Scenario Development Where are we in the process? Scoping Process Models, Tools, Methods, Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario Development Update Western Electricity Coordinating Council

The Scenario Learning Loop Western Electricity Coordinating Council

The Scenario Learning Loop Narrative Western Electricity Coordinating Council

The Scenario Learning Loop Modeling Narrative Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scenario Modeling Narratives Scoping Approach Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scenario Modeling Narratives Scoping Approach Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scenario Modeling Narratives Scoping Approach Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scenario Modeling Narratives Scoping Approach Metrics April 2019 January 2019 November 2018 End of Month September 2018 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scoping Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scoping Process Narratives Reliability Questions (& Near-term Priorities) Study Horizons Study Resources Scoping Process Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Reliability Assessment Structure Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2019-2019 Scenario Matrix Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Possible Reliability Questions How might restricted customer choice of electrical supply options manifest and impact the characteristics of the BPS? How might a “laissez faire” policy environment manifest and impact the characteristics of the BPS? How might load patterns and characteristics change and what risks may arise? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Possible Reliability Questions How might the generation resource portfolio change and what risks may arise? How might the utilization of transmission change and what risks may arise? What operational challenges may arise? What other potential risks to reliability of the BPS may arise? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Possible Reliability Questions How might planning and operation of the BPS adapt to these changes? What market mechanisms may arise? What investment decisions might need to be considered? What mix of generation resources may be needed for reliability rather than energy production. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Study Approach Development Questions/ Scenarios Questions/ Reliability Questions/ Horizons Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Study Approach Development Questions/ Scenarios Questions/ Reliability Questions/ Horizons Q S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Q1 ? Q2 . . . Qn Q 5yr 10yr 20yr Q1 ? Q2 . . . Qn Q R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 Q1 ? Q2 . . . Qn Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Study Approach Requirements Questions/ Scenarios Questions/ Reliability Questions/ Horizons SDS StS DS MS Requirements Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Models, Tools, Methods, Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

NEMS “Modules” Framework National Energy Modeling System Model Basis for Annual Energy Outlooks Adapt “Modules” framework approach to WECC needs WECC “Modules” based on ADS and WECC processes Western Electricity Coordinating Council

NEMS Electricity Module Not Adopting NEMS Adapt framework and approach to our needs WECC Modeling Modules unique to WECC Framework used to develop study roadmaps Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council WECC Modeling Modules Load Generation Transmission Economics Fuels Geospatial (GIS) Goals and Constraints Exogenous Anchor Data Set (ADS) foundational Basic Modeling Categories Sub-modules refinements Framework used to develop study roadmaps Study Horizons captured Facilitates Organization Transparency Traceability Pedigree Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Tools Load Forecasting Production Cost Simulation Power Flow Capital Expansion Optimization Stochastics Predictive Analytics Operational Flexibility Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Methods Sound & industry accepted Peer and committee review Transparent and documented with the pedigree Leverage outside expertise when appropriate (e.g., National Labs, Consultants) ADS foundational along with committee processes Leverage StS, DS, MS and other committee’s for metric adjustments Study approaches comply with objectives to the satisfaction of study requestor (e.g., SDS for scenarios) Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Metrics Foundational metrics, non-foundational metrics, study approach metrics, metric adjustments ADS metrics are foundational Non-foundational metrics are peer reviewed in collaboration with StS, MS, DS, . . . Leverage outside consultancy as needed (e.g., capital cost models) Study approach metrics comply with objectives to the satisfaction of study requestor (e.g., SDS for scenarios) Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Near-term Metrics Work Long Term Load Forecasts Update Capital Costs New Generation Technology Types Geospatial Renewable Energy Potentials Review RPS and Policy Trends Transmission Valuations Reliability Goals and Constraints Assumptions Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Questions Michael Bailey mbailey@wecc.biz Western Electricity Coordinating Council