1. TAS Quarterly Meeting November 2-3, 2016 Michael Bailey, P.E. WECC
2034 Reference Case Update
TAS Quarterly Meeting
November 2-3, 2016
Michael Bailey, P.E.
WECC
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Discussion Topics
Transmission Models
Load Models
Generation Models
Optimization Goals
Optimization Constraints
Economics
Preliminary Results & Observations
Analytics & Metrics
Next Steps
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

3. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Reference Case Update
Transmission Models
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

4. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Reduced Network Model
20,000+ bus full network model (FNM) reduced to 500- bus reduced network model (RNM)
Boundary flows of RNM within 1% FNM
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

5. Transmission Candidates
Reduced Network
Candidate Corridors
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

6. Transmission Candidate Assumptions
Focus is WECC transmission paths and on inter-regional transmission needs.
Intra-regional transmission assumed to be adequately reinforced.
Utilization of existing transmission infrastructure will be maximized as much as possible before any new transmission infrastructure is built.
Percentage of power flows on new and existing infrastructure relative to line ratings required to be balanced.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

7. Balanced Transmission Power Flows
Power flows on new candidate line(s), as a percentage of line ratings, balanced with existing transmission infrastructure loading(s).
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8. Transmission Equivalent Links
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9. Transmission Candidates
Pc%
Adj
Candidate
Adj
Pe%
Pc% = Pe%
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10. Transmission Technologies
Approximately 1000 candidate corridors.
Single and double circuit AC technology types at 230 kV, 345 kV, and 500 kV.
Two DC technology types at 500 and 600 kV.
Library of corridors geospatially optimized to minimize environmental impact and to capture terrain and ROW costs.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

11. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Reference Case Update
Load Models
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12. Load Model Enhancements
Itron Load Forecasting Tool (LFT) used to produce Year-20 energy and demand load forecasts.
Eight load duration blocks co-optimized.
Four seasons with heavy and lite load levels each.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

13. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Reference Case Update
Generation Models
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14. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Generation Models
Common Case generating units and technology type characteristics captured as existing generation.
Future candidate technology types obtained from TEPPC Generation Capital Cost Tool.
Future candidate renewable generating units and technology type characteristics derived from NREL data.
Future candidate non-renewable generating units and technology type characteristics derived from TEPPC Generation Capital Cost Tool.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

15. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Generation Models
Three types of generation aggregation hubs:
TEPPC state/area hubs
Renewable energy hubs (WREZ)
Natural gas hubs
Hubs modeled as geospatial centroids.
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16. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Reference Case Update
Optimization Goals
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17. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Optimization Goals
Approximately 200 Generation Goals Captured
Policy Goals
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Annual State/Province/Country Energy Targets
Tiers & Carve-outs
Common Case Earmarks
Reliability Goals
State, Area and System
Reliability
Flex
Energy (MWh) & Demand/Capacity (MW)
Other
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18. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Optimization Goals
Sequencing Priorities
Shared-by Roll-ups
Candidate Qualification Factors
Load ratios, targets, credit ratios
Flex Associations
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19. Colorado Goals Example
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20. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Oregon Goals Example
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21. Optimization Constraints
Pooled & Locational
Annual Consumption/Production Rates & Limits
Fuel (e.g., renewable)
Water
Carbon
Other
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22. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Reference Case Update
Economics
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23. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Economics
Levelized Cost of Energy
TEPPC Generation Capital Cost Tool (E3)
TEPPC Transmission Capital Cost Tool (Black & Veatch)
Review of Financing Parameters
Review of Technology Types
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24. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Reference Case Update
Preliminary Results
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25. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Reduced Network 23hs1a
Balanced Generation across Western Interconnection.
North-South flows across from BC and PNW.
East-West from Montana to PNW.
East-West from DSW to SoCal.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

26. 1rst Pass – Deficit of Generation in Canada
South-North Flows to Canada due to 93% BC and 30% AB renewable targets.
Lack of modeled candidate renewable generation in BC and AB to meet self-serve assumptions.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

27. 2nd Pass – Gap Renewable Resources added in Canada
North-South Flows from Canada re-established.
Gap hydro added to BC, gap wind added to AB.
Renewable targets met in Canada.
Excess non-renewable available in Canada.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

28. 2nd Pass - Transmission Expansion Needs
Interconnection of Canadian Renewables.
North-south Canadian Exports.
North-South flows on COI.
South-North flows of SE Colorado Wind.
East-West flows of New Mexico Wind.
East-West flows to DSW.
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29. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Grid Cost
Function of:
Location
Load Profile
Generation Profile
Expansions
Annealment
Changes as load & generation profiles change.
Annealment to common representation.
Refined on study case by study case basis.
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30. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Reference Case Update
Analytics & Metrics
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31. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Analytics & Metrics
Input parameters and assumptions.
Goal and Constraint Audits.
Locational (Hub) metrics.
Transmission path utilizations and constraints.
Power Flows and System Reliability.
Generation Technology.
Fuel Mix.
Policy.
Economics
Geospatial.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

32. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Reference Case Update
Next Steps
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33. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Next Steps
Continue Reference Case solution audit.
Continue Analytic and Report development.
Leverage consultants to help with stakeholder parameter and metric outreach.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

34. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
2034 Reference Case Update
Questions?
Michael Bailey, P.E.
Senior Staff Engineer
Western Electricity Coordinating Council
155 North 400 West
Suite 200
Salt Lake City, Utah
(801)
Western Electricity Coordinating Council