1. Scenario Development Subcommittee January 4, 2018
2034 Reference Case Update
Scenario Development Subcommittee
January 4, 2018
Michael Bailey, PE
WECC Staff
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Talking Points
Provide context for 2018 scenario development effort.
Review of study methodologies.
Status of legacy studies.
Preliminary observations and challenges.
Lessons learned.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

3. Context for 2018 Scenario Development
Provide SDS with a context with regard to adapting lessons learned to study models and methods upon which 2018 scenarios will be studied.
Lessons Learned – what worked, what didn’t work.
Moving forward.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

4. LTPT – Initial Vision Study Case Development Tool (SCDT)
NXT
Transmission Corridors
Study Case Development Tool (SCDT)
Network Expansion Tool (NXT)
GIS Transmission Corridors and Candidate Lines
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

5. LTPT – Current Methodology
SCDT
SCED
Transmission Paths
Study Case Development Tool (SCDT)
Security Constrained Economic Dispatch(SCED)
Transmission Paths
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

6. LTPT – Proposed 2018 Methodology
SCDT
PCM-L
Transmission Paths
Study Case Development Tool (SCDT)
Production Cost Model – Light (PCM-L)
Transmission Paths
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

7. LTPT – Proposed 2018 Methodology
Year-20 Study
SCDT for a generation portfolio and transmission expansion.
PCM-L determines commitments, dispatches, and utilizations.
INPUTS
MODELS
STUDY RESULTS
Long-Term Planning Tools
(Capital Expansion / PCM Optimization)
Twenty-Year Capital Expansion Result
Production Cost Parameters
SCDT
Gen Capital Costs
Generation Portfolio
Tx Capital Costs
PCM-L
Transmission Topology
Other Constraints
Western Electricity Coordinating Council 7

8. Portfolio Optimization
Capacity
Reliability
RPS
LCOE
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

9. Status of Legacy Studies
Case ID
Case Summary
Built?
Run?
Analyzed?
2034 PC01
2034 Reference Case
Yes
2034 PC 1
Assessment of SPSG Scenario 2 – Aggressive policies to reduce GHG and promote technological innovation.
Pending
2034 PC 2
Assessment of SPSG Scenario 3 – Slow growth with focus on consumer costs
2034 PC 3
SPSG Scenario 4 – Slow growth with focus on low-hanging fruit clean energy investments.
2034 PC 4
20 Year High DG case No
2034 PC 5
20 Year study of coal retirements or low-carbon pathway with electrification of infrastructure.
2034 PC 6
20 Year study of SPSG Energy-Water-Climate Change (EWCC) Scenario
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

10. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Energy Resource Mix
2024CC
2034RC
Increase in renewables
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

11. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
LCOE Components
Energy and Demand Requirements are Different Cost Components
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

12. Energy Goals versus Demand Goals
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

13. Preliminary Observations and Challenges
Portfolios governed by LCOE price spreads.
Noticable additions of Wind and DG, followed by Solar PV.
Large amount (36%) of additional resources added to portfolio mix to meet system demand needs on top of system energy needs.
Existing transmission system fairly robust in meeting future needs after using SCDED.
A production cost component to long term planning is necessary to fully understand the nuances and implications of the long term study cases.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

14. Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Questions?
Michael Bailey, P.E. Senior Staff Engineer WECC
Western Electricity Coordinating Council