Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Outlook 2017 Ag Seminar Coon Rapids, Iowa Feb. 20, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 170.8 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,060 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,320 Imports 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,940 16,430 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,131 5,600 5,500 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,206 5,350 5,325 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,429 1,445 1,440 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,950 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,620 14,215 Ending Stocks 2,215 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.40 3.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013-16, USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 85.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.1 47.9 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,307 4,050 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 420 Imports 72 33 24 25 30 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,528 4,500 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,930 1,935 Seed & Residual 107 146 122 128 130 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,050 2,100 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,108 4,165 Ending Stocks 336 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.50 9.35 Source: USDA-WAOB 2013-16, USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Trade Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 4.03 3.94 3.57 Source: CME Group, 2/17/2017

Current Soybean Futures 10.03 9.84 9.62 Source: CME Group, 2/17/2017

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

2017/18 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

AVERAGE VALUES all farmland 1941−2016 $7,183 As of Nov 16 -5.9%

% Change in Nominal Iowa Farmland Values 1942-2016

Land Values by County, 2016

Percent Changes in Land Values from Nov 2015

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/