Modelling Sustainable Urban Transport Josef Janko Gdansk, 16.09.2018

Overview Transport Modelling Sustainable Transport Background City Examples Sustainable Transport Methods Examples Implementation of Project Features Modelling of City Structure Changes Indicator Determination Input for the Emission Model TREM

Overview Transport Modelling Sustainable Transport Background City Examples Sustainable Transport Methods Examples Implementation of Project Features Modelling of City Structure Changes Indicator Determination Input for the Emission Model TREM

Transport Modelling in the SUTRA Environment Public Health Environment Economy Volumes, link lengths, journey times Volumes, trip lengths, journey times Volumes, trip lengths, journey times Volumes, speeds, trip lengths, number of cold starts, ratio hot/ cold driving Volumes, trip lengths, journey times Transport Model Emission Energy Demand: OD-matrices for different segments Supply: networks for different modes City Infrastructure

Traffic Behaviour Data Transport Model : Software + Digital Network Data Structural Data Traffic Behaviour Data

Structural and behavioural data Transport Model : the Demand Side ... Population segmentation Activity chains Trip Generation Activity Model impedance matrix service quality Trip Distribution Gravitation Model Attractiveness data of zones Structural and behavioural data mode attribute matrix Mode Choice LOGIT Model specific mode preferences OD matrix mode 1 OD matrix mode 2 OD matrix mode n

Traffic volumes, journey times, journey costs Transport Model : ... and the Supply Side OD matrix mode 2 OD matrix mode 1 OD matrix mode n impedance matrix service quality Traffic Assignment Network Description Demand Model mode attribute matrix Traffic volumes, journey times, journey costs Evaluation of schemes

Overview Transport Modelling Sustainable Transport Background City Examples Sustainable Transport Methods Examples Implementation of Project Features Modelling of City Structure Changes Indicator Determination Input for the Emission Model TREM

Network Model Gdansk

Network Model Geneva (1)

Network Model Geneva (2)

Network Model Genoa (1)

Network Model Genoa (2)

Network Model Lisbon (1)

Network Model Lisbon (2)

Network Model Tel Aviv (1)

Network Model Tel Aviv (3)

Network Model Thessaloniki (1)

Network Model Thessaloniki (2)

City Networks (1) : Model Statistics Indicator Gdansk Genev a Genoa Lisbon Tel Aviv Thessaloniki Network Size Zones 175 280 82 85 580 316 Nodes 2348 936 285 1124 3144 1386 Links 5546 2900 888 2940 11850 4084 PrT Assignment average speed [km/h] 73 50 42 16 65 43 PuT Assignment mean ride distance [km] 6.7 4.2 9.5 6.5 4.4 mean in-veh. speed [km/h] 25 20 27 21 13

City Networks (2) : Junction Density

City Networks (3) : Junction Density - Normalised

Overview Transport Modelling Sustainable Transport Background City Examples Sustainable Transport Methods Examples Implementation of Project Features Modelling of City Structure Changes Indicator Determination Input for the Emission Model TREM

Sustainable Transport Objective: reduce the usage of private cars Urban Planning: mixed land use high density land use to reduce trip lengths Economic incentives to use desired transport modes in variable pressure: improvement of public transport (new or better systems) P+R HOV lanes bus lanes usage charges (parking, area, roads) removal of road space

Modelling Park + Ride - Principle Public Transport Private Transport Initial Potential Final

Modelling Park + Ride - Method Define P&R interchange sites for each city centre zone add a virtual private transport link at the P+R site with impedance = f(PuT price, PuT travel time, ...) and connect zone to the other end of the virtual link Determine P&R demand perform private transport assignment and determine proportion of demand using virtual P&R links Split P&R demand off private transport demand add a zone to each P&R site and connect to both private and public transport subtract P&R demand from private demand add back private transport leg (up to P&R zone) add public transport leg (from P&R zone) to PuT demand Assign changed public and private transport demands separately

High Occupancy Vehicles Focus in SUTRA: car pools Incentives for participating in a car pool: Availability of dedicated HOV lanes Reserved parking spaces at convenient locations Exemption from road pricing Typical usage similar to Park & Ride car pool members start their trips separately, meet at an agreed place, share one vehicle for remaining leg

HOV - Method Approach similar to Park & Ride Define HOV as a new transportation system Add HOV incentives to network, e.g. additional lanes reserved to transportation system HOV and closed for car etc. Define HOV meeting places (zone + virtual link) Adjust demand Determine HOV demand Split off HOV demand from private transport demand Add back individual legs to private transport demand Form HOV demand from shared legs Reassign changed demand to network

Road User Charging (1) traditional approach: route choice depends on travel time considering toll: route choice depends on travel time and costs problem: drivers have different sensitivity to costs („value of time“)

Road User Charging (2) : Value of Time impedance CritR of a route R consists of a time component tR and a cost component cR. time and cost are connected through a VT [€ / h], [$ / h], ... CritR

Road User Charging (3) : Methods CritR “traditional” toll assignment TRIBUT constant VT for all users randomly distributed VT mono-criterial bi-criterial

Overview Transport Modelling Sustainable Transport Background City Examples Sustainable Transport Methods Examples Implementation of Project Features Modelling of City Structure Changes Indicator Determination Input for the Emission Model TREM

Modelling of City Structure Changes Conventional Demand Modelling based on structural data (residents, work places, educational facilities, shopping facilities) based on behavioural data (homogenous groups, trip chains, OD groups) SUTRA Demand Modelling „common“ „hypothetical“ scenarios dedicated demand modelling beyond the project scope derivation of the scenario demand from the analysis case.

Demand Modelling Details Trip generation change of the sum of all trips in the demand matrices based on population and mobility rates Mode share individual treatment of the demand matrices Trip distribution sensitivity factor: small ... strong reduction of long distance trips form factor: change of the ratio of trips between the zones.

Common Scenarios Definition

City Specific Input Data original trip matrix original distance matrix parameter for the desired trip generation Population Mobility rates parameter for the desired trip distribution Sensitivity factor Form factor

City Specific Input Data

Land Use Density (scenario examples)

Scenario Example - Modified Land Use Intensity

Overview Transport Modelling Sustainable Transport Background City Examples Sustainable Transport Methods Examples Implementation of Project Features Modelling of City Structure Changes Indicator Determination Input for the Emission Model TREM

Indicator Summary (1) Definition of indicators in Deliverable D08/A: Sustainability Indicators Processing of transport model output to determine totals ... for Private Transport vehicle-km vehicle-hrs additional vehicle-hrs due to congestion vehicle-hrs in traffic jams ... for Public Transport passenger-km passenger-hrs passenger-hrs in overcrowded vehicles ... disaggregated by transport systems

Indicator Summary (2) Selection of a primary demand segment ... is required for the calculation of cold flows ... has to be defined before reading the network description to select only the required data

Indicator Summary (3) Reading of link data journey times for private transport speeds for private transport disaggregated by link and transport system Aggregation to network level indicators vehicle-km, vehicle-hr additional vehicle-hr due to congestion vehicle-hr in jam passenger-km, passenger-hr passenger-hr in overcrowded vehicles

Indicator Summary : City Comparison

Overview Transport Modelling Sustainable Transport Background City Examples Sustainable Transport Methods Examples Implementation of Project Features Modelling of City Structure Changes Indicator Determination Input for the Emission Model TREM

Cold Flows (1) „Cold Flows“ = Flows of vehicles operated under cold engine conditions 5 Pollutants CO2 CO HC NOx FC 3 vehicle categories vehicles driven by petrol engine with catalyst vehicles driven by petrol engine without catalyst vehicles driven by Diesel engine

Cold Flows (2) Each trip starts with a cold engine Three Vehicle Categories in the Primary Demand Segment only (due to computation time) All other Private Transport demand segments: driven by Diesel engines Default values for vehicle shares in the Primary Demand Segment can be modified

Cold Flows (3) Shares of vehicles in a link producing CO2 from a petrol engine with catalyst under cold conditions

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