1. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 20031 Scenarios and the Integration of Models Cascading models

2. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 20032 An overview

3. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 20033 Model Cascading Traffic loads Emission rates (TREM) Emissions due to sectors: transport Residential industry Pollution Models: VADIS & OFIS & ISC3 Energy use Technology ranking Energy:MARKAL Energy prices Technology availability Pollutant concentrations Journey travel time Congestion Transport Demand Modal choices Traffic:VISUM OD matrices Land use Uncertainty Demography Econ. growth Scenario description

4. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 20034 Steps 1.Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2.Run traffic assignments (VISUM : TRAFFIC) 3.Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL- Lite : Energy) 4.Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5.Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6.Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS : Regional O3 model) 7.Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS : local pollution model) 8.Compute indicators 9.City comparisons and benchmarking 10.Policy analysis

5. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 20035 Steps 1.Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2.Run traffic assignments (VISUM : TRAFFIC) 3.Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL- Lite : Energy model) 4.Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5.Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6.Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7.Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8.Compute indicators 9.City comparisons and benchmarking 10.Policy analysis

6. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 20036 Drivers for the traffic model (VISUM) O/D matrices Modal choices PTV method –Land use  OD matrix Alternative methods…

7. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 20037 Transport vehicle link results

8. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 20038 Steps 1.Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2.Run traffic assignments (VISUM) 3.Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL- Lite) 4.Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5.Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6.Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7.Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8.Compute indicators 9.City comparisons and benchmarking 10.Policy analysis

9. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 20039 Drivers of the emissions model (TREM) ItemProvided by Traffic volumeTRAFFIC Vehicle speedTRAFFIC Cold start emissions Information needed is provided by TRAFFIC Distribution of vehicles by categories passenger cars, LDV, HDV, etc.) ENERGY Model Distribution of vehicles by classes (based on age and technology) ENERGY Model

10. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200310 Steps 1.Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2.Run traffic assignments (VISUM) 3.Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL- Lite) 4.Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5.Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors (MARKAL-Lite) 6.Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7.Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8.Compute indicators 9.City comparisons and benchmarking 10.Policy analysis

11. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200311 Drivers for the energy model (MARKAL) Energy prices –(constant values used for all periods) Useful demands Available technology –(using the needed energy characteristics parameters)

12. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200312 Coupling Energy and Traffic Public transport - base case

13. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200313 Steps 1.Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2.Run for traffic assignments (VISUM) 3.Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) 4.Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5.Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6.Run global O3 model with total emissions (REGIONAL O3 model) 7.Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8.Compute indicators 9.City comparisons and benchmarking 10.Policy analysis

14. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200314 Emission rates for Geneva Moles/sec/km 2

15. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200315 Drivers of the ozone model (OFIS) Geneva example Emissions: The emissions are based on the SEDE emissions inventory produced in 1996. Meteorology: Wind direction and speed … Boundary conditions: The boundary conditions data comes from the measurements station of Chaumont, located on the "Plateau Suisse"

16. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200316 OFIS simulation Four city examples

17. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200317 Steps 1.Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2.Run for traffic assignments (VISUM) 3.Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) 4.Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5.Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6.Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7.Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (LOCAL POLLUTION MODEL) 8.Compute indicators 9.City comparisons and benchmarking 10.Policy analysis

18. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200318 TREM  VADIS

19. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200319 MARKAL  VADIS

20. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200320 Drivers of the canyon model (VADIS : LOCAL Pollution Model) The building situation Emission sources coordinates definition The meteorological conditions Description and the CO emissions characterization

21. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200321 Steps 1.Design O/D matrices based on scenarios 2.Run for traffic assignments (VISUM) 3.Input transport demands in Energy model (MARKAL-Lite) 4.Input emission rates for technologies (TREM) 5.Obtain technology mix and total emissions of precursors 6.Run global O3 model with total emissions (OFIS) 7.Run local pollution models with transport technology mix (VADIS) 8.Compute indicators 9.City comparisons and benchmarking (See ESS site : Benchmarking) 10.Policy analysis

22. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200322 Publications Caratti P., Haurie A., Pinelli D., Zachary D.S. Exploring the fuel cell car future: an integrated energy model at the city level. The Ninth International Conference on Urban Transport and the Environment 2003, Crete, Greece. Borrego C., Miranda A.I., Valente J., Lopes M., Couto J.M., Haurie A. & Drouet L. Studying the impact of urban sustainable transportation on Lisbon air quality. To appear in proceedings of AIR POLLUTION 2003, Eleventh International Conference on Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Air Pollution 17 - 19 September 2003 Catania, Italy

23. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200323 Model Cascading Traffic loads Emission rates (TREM) Pollution Models Emissions due to sectors: transport Residential industry Energy use Technology ranking Energy Energy prices Technology availability Pollutant concentrations Journey travel time Congestion Transport Demand Modal choices Traffic OD matrices Land use Uncertainty Demography Econ. growth Scenario description

24. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200324

25. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200325 MARKAL  VADIS Lisbon Data

26. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200326 VISUM  MARKAL

27. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200327 Coupling MARKAL and Traffic Private transport – base case

28. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200328

29. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200329 OFIS scenario results for Geneva

30. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200330 Coupling MARKAL and Traffic Public Transport – 4 scenarios Public Transport decomposition Market

31. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200331 Coupling MARKAL and Traffic Private Transport – 4 scenarios

32. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200332 Traffic Scenarios results for Geneva

33. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200333 Indicators : TREM

34. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200334 Indicator : VADIS State indicators: NO x peak concentration (mg/m3): 138,8 CO peak concentration (mg/m3): 1582,4

35. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200335 Emission rates… example European standards for 9 MARKAL periods TEE1CD 0.1 TEE1CG 0.23 TEE2CD 0.1 TEE2CG 0.03 4 TEE3CD 0.16 2 TEE3CG 0.03 2 TEE4CD 0.13 1 TEE4CG 0.03 7

36. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200336 Import energy prices for MARKAL Fuel/Pe riod123456789 BIG26 COA3.74 DSL8.63 DST9.643 ETH7.022 GSL10.676 GSW8.63 15 HDG24 LPG20.929 MET8.152 MSW0.1 NGA11.828 NGFCC7.63 NGI11.828 WOR26

37. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200337

38. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200338 Building situation in VADIS domain

39. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200339 Distribution of vehicles by Categories

40. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200340 Coupling TREM with the traffic model

41. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200341 Coupling Pollution models with Traffic and Energy model

42. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200342 Indicators : from traffic model –Pressure indicators: private transport: 1 927 697 850 Passenger transport demand (pkm per year) public transport: 19 869 100 –State indicators: Crowding (hours in an overcrowded public transport: ????? Traffic jams (hours spent in traffic jams): ?????

43. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200343 VADIS domain

44. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200344 Scenario comparison with OFIS

45. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200345 OFIS scenarios for Geneva Max ave sub townE120 Dom Scen ref.41.4531.2932.7633.57173 Scen140.5931.3130.9931.07173 Scen239.6831.3228.4127.41173 Scen348.6131.4440.4143.98174 Scen447.3331.539.742.94174 AOT

46. Gdansk Meeting June 23-24 200346 Coupling VISUM and MARKAL Public transport (Train) 3.23 1.78 Private transport (Tramway) 10.4716.4412.573.982.91 Private transport 9 4179 51213 2063 7575 329 BAUScenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Density-highLowHighLow Demography-highHighLow Population in 2030 494 6001 085 000 514 700 Active population in 2030 247 300542 600537 000227 800225 400