1. The SAMPERS project - an over view By Gunnar Johansson Sveder Transek AB Postal address: Solna Torg 3, S-171 45 Solna, Sweden Tel: +46 8 735 24 49, Fax: +46 8 735 20 30 e-mail: gunnarj@transek.se, web: www.Transek.se

2. 28 April 19992 Background Long tradition of cost-benefit analysis of investment projects Long tradition of modelling - from 4-step to disaggregate systems SAMPLAN, extensive co- operation between agencies responsible for –road, rail, air, sea National transportation plan, investment plan, transportation policy: –maintenance, taxation, road pricing, technical development, regulations Evaluation of alternative scenarios the society –efficiency, environment, safety, regional balance Detailed cost-benefit analysis

3. 28 April 19993 The old national traffic forecast system National road network data bank Public transport (train, bus, air ) Maps EMME/2 GIS FREDRIK regional trips Socio-economic data IC/3 long distance Car owner ship EVA CBA - assessment

4. 28 April 19994 The project Contract April 1998 New traffic demand models –Current data National travel survey (1994-1997) SP-survey (time of day) Fehmarn Belt, Öresund –All trips Regional National long distance International –Time of day modelling Long distance public transport trips –Secondary destination Regional trips Computer System –EMME/2 –Plenty of forecast parameters –Integrated into one single user- friendly system Car ownership Demand models Impact calculation Cost benefit analysis Accessibility calculation –Flexibility to output data Validation Delivery, spring and autumn 1999

5. 28 April 19995 Data assembling Quality control Trips construction Estimation Client approval Model implementation Validation (Survey, Elasticity) Validation (Traffic counts) The project process

6. 28 April 19996 TrainPedesr.BikeCar dr.Car pas.Bus Dest1…n TripNo trip BfBpBTGC Dest1…n BfBpBTGC Dest1…n BfBpBTGC Dest1…n Home basedSecondary destinationWorking place based ……. TripNo trip Demand models - Regional trips Nested logit models –Secondary destinations Trip purposes –Home-work trip –Recreation –Personal visits –School trips –Business –and other Sweden divided into five regions Total 8000 zones

7. 28 April 19997 Demand models - National long distance trips Nested logit models –Time table assignment –Time of day models Trip purposes –Business Duration 0 days Duration 1+days –Private Duration 1 day Duration 2-5 days Duration 5+ days Total 670 zones Car TripNo trip Bus IC train X2000 train Air Destinations Trip frequency Destination Mode Time of day Type of ticket

8. 28 April 19998 Impact & Cost benefit analysis Energy consumption –Petrol, Diesel –Costs Exhaust emissions –NOx, HC, Particulate, CO2, SO2 –Costs Traffic safety –Number of killed –Number of severely injured –Number of slightly injured –Wildlife accidents Costs –Maintenance costs –Consumer surplus –CBA

9. 28 April 19999 Computer system Technology –Windows NT –Database Access (ODBC) –Software Visual Basic 5 PowerPlay –Object oriented approach Multiprocessing Export file format –EMME/2 Data bas Filter matrices –Excel Standard report –GIS MapInfo/ArcView –Micro simulation system Contram...

10. 28 April 199910 Computer system Long dist. trip Data base SAMPERS Scenario handler system Regional trip Emme/2Power Play Impact CBA Internat. trip

11. 28 April 199911 Model validation No “Base matrix” Model estimation –Value of time –Elasticity After implementation –Elasticity –Model vs Survey Trip frequency by mode and trip propose Trip length Traffic production (mileage) Assigned traffic –Counts Roads Trains Airports Ferries

12. 28 April 199912 Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey

13. 28 April 199913 Mälar lake region, number of trips, model divided by survey

14. 28 April 199914 South region, number of home-work trips by travel distance in km

15. 28 April 199915 Traffic production, km per day

16. 28 April 199916 Road traffic south of Malmö city

17. 28 April 199917 Road traffic west region

18. 28 April 199918 Road traffic around the city of Jönköping

19. 28 April 199919 Passenger in the Stockholm underground system

20. 28 April 199920 Future possibilities Options –Integration of a new car owner ship model, liked by logsum variables to the demand model –Integration of land use model