The Monetary-Financial Environment

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Presentation transcript:

Main economic background data to the Monetary Committee’s Interest Rate decision, April 6, 2017

The Monetary-Financial Environment

In the past year, the annual inflation rate has been in an upward trend, but it remains below the target range. SOURCE: Based on Central Bureau of Statistics.

The effect of the administrative price declines and energy price declines that contributed to the low inflation of the past two years has dissipated.

One-year inflation expectations from the various sources declined due to the appreciation of the shekel and expectations of possible tax reductions. SOURCE: Bank of Israel.

Figure 4: Forward inflation expectations to various ranges* There was also some decline in medium- and long-term expectations. Figure 4: Forward inflation expectations to various ranges* Seasonally adjusted daily data, February 2016 to April 2017 SOURCE: Bank of Israel.

There has been a rapid appreciation of the shekel in recent months. SOURCE: Bank of Israel.

The increase in home prices moderated The increase in home prices moderated. Rents continue to increase more moderately than in the past. SOURCE: Based on Central Bureau of Statistics.

Initial data indicate a further decline in home purchase transactions. SOURCE: Bank of Israel. 9 9 9

The flow of new mortgages continues to moderate in view of increased mortgage interest rates. SOURCE: Bank of Israel. 10 10 10

Real economic activity

Fourth-quarter growth was affected by atypical vehicle imports.

Initial Companies Survey data indicate continuation of the basic growth rate in the first quarter. SOURCE: Bank of Israel. 13 13

The Purchasing Managers Index continues to indicate expansion of manufacturing activity. SOURCE: Central Bureau of Statistics. 14 14

There is volatility in foreign trade end data. SOURCE: Central Bureau of Statistics. 15 15

The labor market is close to full employment. SOURCE: Central Bureau of Statistics.

The increase in nominal wages continues. SOURCE: Central Bureau of Statistics.

The global economy

Forecasts are for continued moderate growth in the global economy SOURCE: Bloomberg.

Improvement in the growth rate of the global trade in commodities SOURCE: Bloomberg.

The Purchasing Managers Index indicates an expected trend of improvement during the year. SOURCE: Bloomberg.

Inflation is increasing as a result of the increase in energy prices among other factors. SOURCE: Bloomberg.

Oil prices declined in the past month due to increased supply. SOURCE: Bloomberg.

The Fed continued its policy of raising interest rates. SOURCE: Bloomberg.

Equities in the emerging markets have been relatively strong since the beginning of the year. SOURCE: Bloomberg.