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Monetary Policy Update September 2012

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Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate for the period 1999 up to the point when the Riksbank started to publish forecasts for the repo rate during 2007. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.

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Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.

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Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.

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Figure 4. CPIF with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

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Figure 5. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

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Figure 6. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.

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Figure 7. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally- adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 8. Unemployment Per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 9. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 10. CPI Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Figure 11. CPIF Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

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Figure 12. CPIF excluding energy Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

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Figure 13. GDP gap, hours gap and emplyment gap Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. GDP gap refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated using a production function. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assessed trend.

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Figure 14. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners.

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Figure 15. Oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.

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Figure 16. GDP in different regions and countries Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden’s most important trading partners.

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Table 1. Repo rate forecast Per cent, quarterly average values Source: The Riksbank

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Table 2. Inflation Annual percentage change, annual average Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. The HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices.

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Table 3. Summary of financial forecasts Per cent, unless otherwise stated, annual average Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank * Per cent of GDP

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Table 4. International conditions Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank Note. The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports. The weight assigned to a country is its share of Swedish exports of goods.

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Table 5. GDP by expenditure Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar- adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts. *Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

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Table 6. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Potential hours refer to the the long-term sustainable level for the number of hours worked according to the Riksbank’s assessment. * Per cent of labour force

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Table 7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data, unless otherwise stated Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages, collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total number of hours worked. Unit labour cost is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices. * Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points

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