1. San Gabriel Valley Economic Forecast Summit
April 4, 2019
Barbara Bagley, CFA
Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager
Bank of America Private Bank

2. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION & INTEREST RATES WATCH LIST
UNITED STATES
EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
We expect U.S. growth to slow into the 2.5% to 3% range this year.
U.S. consumers have tailwinds from solid wage growth, rising home prices, lower inflation and gas prices, and very positive labor-market dynamics.
We expect solid profits and business investment spending to also help extend the cycle.
Job growth remains steady and the current trend is sufficient to keep
the unemployment rate declining during 2019.
Wage growth is moderate and suggests inflation should remain well- anchored.
We expect the Fed to remain on hold as the economy absorbs the impact of last year’s rate hikes.
Pro-business policies are helping: Tax cuts, tax reform, repatriation and regulatory relief are supporting confidence and nominal growth.
WATCH LIST
DOLLAR & COMMODITIES
Relatively higher U.S. rates and concerns over slower growth should continue to support the dollar in the near term. On balance, we expect a steady dollar this year.
The strong dollar is helping to contain commodity prices and dampen general inflation pressures.
 U.S. Inflation
 U.S. Fiscal Policy
 Earnings
 China and Trade Policies
GLOBAL
 Central Bank Meetings
 Brexit Negotiations
Global growth continues to moderate, driven by slower growth outside the U.S.
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes show that
 U.S. Trade Policy
PROFITS
momentum has deteriorated, but global growth should remain
solid in 2019
Corporate profits are rising around the world but at a slower pace.
We expect real global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to remain firm this year.
We expect U.S. corporate profits to grow by mid-single digits this year, driven by revenue increases from healthy consumer and business spending.
Source: Global Wealth & Investment Management Investment Strategy Committee (GWIM ISC) as of March 7, ARX5V3P3
Please refer to glossary, asset class disclosures and other important information at the end of this presentation.

3. ECONOMIC AND MARKET FORECASTS
Q2 2018A
Q3 2018A
Q4 2018A
Q1 2019E
2018A
2019E
Real global GDP (% y/y annualized) -
3.8*
3.4
Real U.S. GDP (% q/q annualized)
4.2
2.6
1.0
2.9
2.2
CPI inflation (% y/y)
2.7
1.5
2.4
1.7
Core CPI inflation (% y/y)
2.1
2.3
Unemployment rate(%)
3.9
3.8
3.7
Fed funds rate, end period (%)
1.91
2.18
2.40
2.38
2.88
10-year Treasury, end period (%)
2.86
3.06
2.68
3.00
S&P 500 end period
2718
2914
2507
2900
S&P earnings ($/share) 41 43
40*
162.5*
170
Euro/U.S. dollar, end period
1.17
1.16
1.15
1.25
U.S. dollar/Japanese yen, end period
111
114
110
106
101
Oil ($/barrel, avg. of period, WTI**) 68 70 60 58 65 59
The forecasts in the table above are the base line view from BofA Merrill Lynch (BofAML) Global Research team. The Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM) Investment Strategy Committee (ISC) may make adjustments to this view over the course of the year and can express upside/downside to these forecasts.
A=Actual / * and E=Estimate / ** WTI: West Texas Intermediate/ S&P 500 represents a fair value estimate for Sources: BofAML Global Research; GWIM ISC as of March 8, ARX5V3P3
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Economic or financial forecasts are inherently limited and should not be relied on as indicators of future investment performance.
Please refer to glossary, asset class disclosures and other important information at the end of this presentation.