Results: ICP M&M call for data 2015-2017 Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Max Posch, Jaap Slootweg, Anne-Christine Le Gall 3rd Joint session of the Working Group on Effects and the Steering Body to EMEP, LRTAP Convention, Geneva, 11-15 September 2017

Acknowledgements The National Institute for Public Health and The Environment (RIVM) gratefully acknowledges additional funds provided by: France, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway and The Nordic Council of Ministers, in support of final CCE tasks to be performed in 2017, as noted by the Executive Body at its 36th Session (Geneva, 15-16 December 2016).

Final status of results of the CCE call for data (Source: chapter 2, CCE Final Report 2017, in prep.) # 14 # 14 # 7 Classical critical loads

“Classical” critical loads for acidification and eutrophication …recommended for use by EMEP-CIAM in TFIAM

European database of critical loads of 2017 vrs 2015-call for data NFC data + CCE backgrounddata for other Parties 2017 2015 5th percentile Critical load of acidity 5th percentile Critical load of eutrophication

2017 critical loads for eutrophication: NFC submissions Protecting 95% of ecosystems Protecting 75% of ecosystems Source: chapter 2, CCE Final Report 2017 (in prep)

“Biodiversity” critical loads …for scientific use…

Define critical/acceptable value of index … and simplify 4 numbers (CLs): 0 ≤ CLNmin ≤ CLNmax and 0 ≤ CLSmin ≤ CLSmax

European critical loads of Biodiversity, protecting 95% of the (NFC-specific) habitat areas For sulphur (if N-dep is small) For nitrogen (if S-dep is small)

Summary European critical loads database 14 NFCs submitted ‘classical’ critical loads 7 NFCs also biodiversity critical loads The European critical loads database covers: Cleut: 2,654,880 km2 (1,074,077 km2 from NFCs) Claci: 2,934,452 km2 (1,353,649 km2 from NFCs) Clbio: 2,134,053 km2 (295,296 km2 from NFCs) The database is documented as follows: Background database in chapter 3 of CCE FR 2017 Database structure for NFC submissions in Appendix A of CCE FR 2017 Each NFC documents its data in CCE Status reports and CCE FR 2017 ALTERRA (NL) and CCE hold the background database and, recently, also software to build the European critical loads database; Alterra can be hired to help a new ICP M&M Programme Centre become operational A CCE-CIAM version is tailored for use in Integrated assessments of exceedances of emission reduction policy alternatives (…under climate change) and continues to be held at IIASA).

Robustness assessment: …which areas @ risk of exceedance of 1, 2 or 3 critical loads ? 2005 GP CLE scenarion 2020

Some results of exceedance calculations (details and maps in CCE Final Report 2017) Depositions used for the calculation of exceedances were obtained for the years 2005 and 2020 (GP-CLE) The Convention area at risk in 2005 and 2020 are: for acidication 11% and 4%, respectively of eutrophication 67% and 58%. The risk of biodiversity loss affects 27% and 12% of the ecosystem area in 2005 and 2020 respectively. The EU Natura-2000 at risk under climate change (+3oC): acidification: 6% Eutrophication 79% Biodiversity 13%. A simultaneous risk of adverse effects (more critical loads exceeded) occurs especially in western-central European regions stretching towards the east.

ICP M&M Recommendations to the WGE The 3rd Joint meeting of WGE-EMEP SB is requested: To adopt the 2017 database on critical loads for acidification and eutrophication for policy suport by EMEP-CIAM-TFIAM and it to be installed (by the CCE) at IIASA. to issue the continuation of the latest call for data on CLs for biodiversity to Parties and their NFCs such that: NFCs can report their work in 2018 to the TF M&M, to enable the TF to report back to the 4th joint WGE-EMEP SB session NFCs keep their new data stored locally (!) until a M&M-PC becomes operational in 2018-2019 To recommend the scientific use (only !) of 2017 critical loads of biodiversity. To note that RIVM availability for datatransfer in 2018+ is subject to uncertainty !

“Famous last words…” ...The successor of the CCE is encouraged to include – in the LRTAP science workplan - the design of methods and data to continue the modelling and mapping of novel critical loads, … while collaborating with ICPs to help design monitoring strategies for knowledge on sustainability of plant species diversity, traits and ecosystem services, in areas where exceedances are computed to occur under climate change.